We are at an evolutionary crossroads at which our own ingenuity and productivity hold both the greatest promise and unspeakable peril. The situation demands that we train up on complexity because being complexity-intolerant means we can't even start to understand the world we've created for ourselves1. We have perhaps become "addicted" to oversimplification, leading to misunderstanding and discord.
The premise is we are at a tipping point. On one hand, the lot of humanity has been improving over centuries, as laws and humanitarian consensus meet the potential of technological development to provide resources for all.
However, as humanity has developed, the same factors that have made us stronger have escalated the risk: Technological advancements, population growth, rich cultural exchange, conflict psychology, and related factors mean that one misstep could lead to massive, potentially unrecoverable destruction to our species—possibly even the planet upon which we depend. Our own psychology and emotional maturity have not developed in step with our technology and culture. We can, in principle, rise to the occasion.
Complexity theory—nonlinear science—is a branch of mathematics that encompasses chaos theory, network theory, the theory of complex adaptive systems, evolutionary models, fractal math, and related models (e.g. information theory, thermodynamics) that not only drive understanding but also increase our power to influence and design complicated processes2.
The concept of “complex adaptive systems” (CAS) is foundational. The systems we live in, while sometimes designed linearly, often have chaotic, even random elements and are self-organizing, developing by autopoiesis (self-making). Natural systems, ecologies, groups of animals, and the like, and human systems from small groups to economic and commercial systems, to information networks and transportation and energy systems, and nation states on the global stage, have emergent, complex features.
Three features define a CAS:
Of the tragic and divisive Israel-Hamas war, former President Obama remarked:
“If there’s any chance of us being able to act constructively to do something, it will require an admission of complexity and maintaining what on the surface may seem contradictory ideas…”.
He then outlined multiple different perspectives on the conflict in a simple way: This is true and that is true, and this is also true... rather than holding one view alone. Holding many views is key to conflict resolution, creating a common ground. But it's particularly difficult when positions are polarized and people are complexity-intolerant. We'll take a deeper look into what factors are at play in pushing the world potentially toward a crisis of understanding, requiring we cool down the destructiveness further, and work through what we need to adapt. Having a complexity-based framework is one lens through which we can contextualize the system we are within.
There are several key high-level factors at play, accelerated by the collective arc of the COVID-19 pandemic, which made us aware of global liabilities on a scale too vast to grasp easily.
Focusing on the parts we already believe in and missing the whole endangers us. Simple perspectives don’t work for complex problems. We omit (rather than admit) a large amount of information because we haven't learned to make sense of it. In our ADHD world, where our baseline capacities are routinely overloaded, many people have shifted into chronic survival/conservation mode, where taking shortcuts may get us through the day. We risk misinterpreting things all the time and are convinced our view is correct. This drives fake news, mis- and disinformation, political manipulation, gaslighting, cancel culture, and a host of other modern-day scourges.
Where does this leave us? With more questions than answers. The massive complexity we face today challenges us to learn new ways of relating to one another, making decisions together about the future, and managing the often dysregulated emotions that get in the way of clear thinking. It's entirely possible to think clearly though the roughest waters and learn to make use of uncertainty and ambiguity to establish stable, winning, long-term cooperative strategies.
References
1. Complexity intolerance is a useful extension to psychological concepts like “frustration tolerance”, “distress tolerance” and “delayed gratification”. I also wrote about a related concept: Crisis- or Anxiety-Dependent Functioning. If we learn to tolerate comlexity, we are smarter and better able to collaborate, wiser in our decision-making and less prone to impulsive moves while still able to remain spontaneous and agile, if not even more effective when we need to be.
2. Complexity science is a foundation for machine learning and AI, big data, and computer science; engineering of systems with many moving parts, including social systems, financial markets in economics; and in genetics, biology, physics and chemistry and in all the natural and life sciences, including ecology, medicine and psychology, among others
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How Embracing Complexity Could Foster Enduring Peace
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05.12.2023
We are at an evolutionary crossroads at which our own ingenuity and productivity hold both the greatest promise and unspeakable peril. The situation demands that we train up on complexity because being complexity-intolerant means we can't even start to understand the world we've created for ourselves1. We have perhaps become "addicted" to oversimplification, leading to misunderstanding and discord.
The premise is we are at a tipping point. On one hand, the lot of humanity has been improving over centuries, as laws and humanitarian consensus meet the potential of technological development to provide resources for all.
However, as humanity has developed, the same factors that have made us stronger have escalated the risk: Technological advancements, population growth, rich cultural exchange, conflict psychology, and related factors mean that one misstep could lead to massive, potentially unrecoverable destruction to our species—possibly even the planet upon which we depend. Our own psychology and emotional maturity have not developed in step with our technology and culture. We can, in principle, rise to the occasion.
Complexity theory—nonlinear science—is a branch of mathematics that encompasses chaos theory, network theory, the theory of complex adaptive systems, evolutionary models, fractal math, and related models (e.g. information theory, thermodynamics) that not only drive understanding but also increase our power to influence and design complicated........
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