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The Israel-Hamas hostages-for-prisoners exchange is a more generous deal for Hamas than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’d even consider a week ago. What changed? What impact might the deal have on the war? And will the cease-fire—a prominent feature of the agreement—improve Israel’s image in the rest of the world?

Under the deal, 50 Israeli hostages will be released from Hamas hideaways and 150 Palestinian prisoners will be freed from Israeli jails. All of those freed, in this first phase, will be women or minors. This will occur over a four-day period beginning Thursday. While this goes on, the war will come to a halt—no shooting, no arrests, no bombing or shelling, no movement of troops or Gazan refugees. At the same time, aid workers will bring into Gaza a flow of humanitarian supplies unseen since the war began Oct. 7.

Then, as a way of extending both the peace and the number of captives released, the cease-fire will be prolonged by another 24 hours for every 10 hostages released. Since Hamas and possibly other radical groups hold an estimated 230 hostages in Gaza, the pause in fighting and the flow of humanitarian aid could potentially continue into mid-December and beyond.

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Until a few days ago, Netanyahu resisted all calls for a cease-fire—even a temporary “pause”—unless Hamas released all hostages ahead of time. The most far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition government stuck to that position during Tuesday’s debate on the proposal. However, Netanyahu himself pushed for the deal, which was also endorsed by Israel’s security and intelligence ministries. It easily passed the full Cabinet.

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Israel has always been willing to strike lopsided deals to free hostages, and the deal struck Tuesday—after seven weeks of negotiations instigated by Qatar, a frequent middleman in dealings with Hamas—was less lopsided than many. In 2011, Israel freed more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of a single soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been nabbed by Palestinian militants on the border of Gaza five years earlier. (The few Israeli parliamentarians who opposed the current deal also criticized the Shalit trade, noting that one of the prisoners freed, Yahya Sinwar is now Hamas’ political leader, ranked No. 1 on the Israel Defense Forces’ kill list.)

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The current phase of this seemingly eternal war began on Oct. 7, when Hamas militants cut through the fence dividing Israel from Gaza and brutally murdered 1,200 Jews, the vast majority of them civilians. Israel responded by pounding Gaza with airstrikes and mobilizing reservists for an invasion. The IDF said it was targeting Hamas sites that were located in residential neighborhoods, in some cases beneath hospitals and schools. More than 12,000 people have been killed in these strikes so far, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not specify how many of that number were civilians. Protests erupted worldwide, most of them against Israel’s airstrikes. Many demanded an Israeli cease-fire, saying little about Hamas’ initial massacre or its continued rocket attacks; some waved flags or banners to the “glory” of Hamas’ “martyrs.”

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From the beginning, President Joe Biden supported Israel’s right to defend itself—but also urged Netanyahu and his emergency war Cabinet, publicly and privately, to minimize civilian casualties, in accordance with international law. Not long into the war, he also urged Israel to declare a “pause” in the fighting so that humanitarian aid could be safely brought into Gaza and hostages could be freed. At least 10 Americans are among those held captive by Hamas and possibly other terrorist groups. Still, until just days ago, Israel’s leaders resisted Biden’s urgings.

In a fascinating Times of Israel podcast aired on Tuesday, several hours before the hostage deal was announced, Haviv Rettig Gur, the newspaper’s senior analyst, offered two explanations for the government’s hard-line position. One stemmed from a view, held by many Zionists, that Jews need to go their own way and defend their own interests, even if it means defying the rest of the world, because much of the world will blame them, whatever they do. In this case, after the deadliest assault on Jews since the Holocaust, much of the world expressed no sympathy or condolences but instead criticized Israel for retaliating. So, this view goes, to hell with what the rest of the world thinks.

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The other explanation, according to Gur, was strategic. Netanyahu was aiming his words not at the Western world but at Hamas, telling its leaders that the Israel of Oct. 8 is different from the Israel of Oct. 6 and that it will go after them with unusually relentless force. Any conciliatory words or gestures would soften that message.

However, in the end, other pressures forced Netanyahu to modify his stance. First was pressure from the United States, which he could not ignore. Biden walked a tightrope here, embracing Netanyahu—with whom he has always had a testy relationship—and backing Israel full-bore. In part, this was a sincere gesture; in part, it was tactical—the dues needed to give him leverage. Israel would have invaded Gaza sooner, bombed more targets more intensely, and probably refused any hostage deal that didn’t involve Hamas’ surrender, without Biden’s tough-love diplomacy.

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Netanyahu and the members of his emergency wartime Cabinet must have seen other ominous signs. In the past, Israel has always been able to count on the U.S. for political support and military aid, both through its lobbying firms (especially AIPAC) and the natural inclination—among American citizens and legislators—to align with the one democracy in the Middle East. However, the tide has shifted in recent years, as Netanyahu’s increasingly right-wing, sometimes-theocratic government has alienated many liberal, secular American Jews. Hamas’ attack at first bolstered pro-Israel feelings, even among critics. But the intensity of airstrikes, the mounting civilian casualties, and Netanyahu’s stubborn refusal to budge even a little toward a truce—all this spurred a surge of frustration and outrage, even among Israel’s loyal supporters.

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In recent days, support has been building in Congress for a bill that makes further aid to Israel conditional on a cease-fire, a flood of humanitarian aid in Gaza, or both. Biden’s top aides have said they will not support Israel if it extends the war on Hamas to the southern part of Gaza, where many civilians have fled, as Netanyahu has said he intends to do. Biden has also told his aides to prepare sanctions and visa bans against Jewish settlers in the West Bank who have killed or forcibly evicted Palestinians. (It is appalling that the Israeli government hasn’t yet arrested any of these settlers, who have immeasurably dampened the moral case that Israel has mounted in defense of its military campaign in Gaza.)

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At least as alarming to Israelis, a recent CNN poll shows that, for the first time, Democrats are more sympathetic to Palestinians (39 percent) than to Israel (35 percent). This is a massive shift from just after Hamas’ attack, when 48 percent sympathized more with Israel and just 22 percent with the Palestinians. Among Democrats younger than 35, the margin is starker still: 74 percent support Palestinians, while just 16 percent support Israel. Even among those older than 65, fewer than half—45 percent—are more sympathetic toward Israel, while a quarter lean toward Palestinians.

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These trends are not only jeopardizing the near-automatic support that Israel has enjoyed in Congress for many decades. The trends are also endangering Biden’s reelection campaign, as a growing number of young voters—as well as Muslim voters, who have a strong presence in the battleground state of Michigan—have said they will not support him in 2024.

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Netanyahu is also facing much pressure on the home front. His popularity is at the lowest point in his long political career; he is almost universally blamed for the failure in security and intelligence that allowed the Hamas terrorists to plan their attack and break through the fence on Oct. 7—and he’s slammed even harder for trying to shunt the blame to his security aides. Many believe that he will be ousted from power as soon as the war is over, if not sooner. However, he may believe a recovery in favor is possible if he can get the hostages freed. There is a huge demand for their release. Just four hostages have been freed in the seven weeks of fighting; just one, a female Israeli soldier, was rescued by a special-operations team. So, another approach was needed.

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Qatar approached Biden about negotiating a hostage-release almost immediately after the war began, according to a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the process Tuesday evening. Within days, Biden formed a “cell” of senior U.S. officials, who talked or physically met with counterparts in Israel, Egypt, and Qatar. The official said Biden himself engaged in these talks daily, sometimes hourly. At a crucial point in these talks, CIA Director William Burns met with the intelligence chiefs of those countries to hammer out the details, many of them quite intricate.

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In supporting the proposal Tuesday night, Netanyahu said that the war will resume after the hostages are all released and that his strategic aim—fighting until Hamas is obliterated as a force that can ever again threaten Israel from Gaza—remains intact. However, Biden has said many times that the decadeslong conflict cannot be resolved without a diplomatic solution—some way that enables Jews and Palestinians to share or divide the land of Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank peacefully. Some U.S. officials hope that the pause in fighting—which could last for several weeks—might provide an opportunity to explore such diplomacy.

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There is cause for hope and doubt on this score. On the one hand, the Sunni Arab countries in the region had settled into good relations with Israel, mainly because of their common enmity toward Iran and its Shiite proxies. When Hamas attacked on Oct. 7, the Saudis were about to enter into talks with Israel. In fact, the attack was probably motivated by a fear that the entire Palestinian cause was about to be sidelined. One of Hamas’ leaders boasted that the assault “succeeded in putting the Palestinian issue back on the table.” Most of the Arab leaders, including those in Saudi Arabia, would like to continue “normalizing” their relations with Israel, but can’t as long as blood is flowing in Gaza, lest their own streets erupt in protest. (Many of their people are more radical and more pro-Palestinian than their leaders.) They might be persuaded to help facilitate some path to an accord.

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On the other hand, peace talks have been launched over and over almost since the creating of the Israeli state in 1948. A small number have succeeded, notably those with Egypt and Jordan, but most have collapsed before they got seriously started. A certain degree of trust is required for people to let down their guard and try to live in peace. After Hamas’ terrorist attack and Israel’s thunderous retaliation, trust is the last instinct on anyone’s agenda. Containment, constant vigilance, and continued skirmishes will probably persist for a long while to come—and that’s assuming some diplomatic formula that can end the current violence.

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QOSHE - Israel Agreed to a Temporary Cease-Fire. What Happens Now? - Fred Kaplan
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Israel Agreed to a Temporary Cease-Fire. What Happens Now?

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22.11.2023
Tweet Share Share Comment

The Israel-Hamas hostages-for-prisoners exchange is a more generous deal for Hamas than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’d even consider a week ago. What changed? What impact might the deal have on the war? And will the cease-fire—a prominent feature of the agreement—improve Israel’s image in the rest of the world?

Under the deal, 50 Israeli hostages will be released from Hamas hideaways and 150 Palestinian prisoners will be freed from Israeli jails. All of those freed, in this first phase, will be women or minors. This will occur over a four-day period beginning Thursday. While this goes on, the war will come to a halt—no shooting, no arrests, no bombing or shelling, no movement of troops or Gazan refugees. At the same time, aid workers will bring into Gaza a flow of humanitarian supplies unseen since the war began Oct. 7.

Then, as a way of extending both the peace and the number of captives released, the cease-fire will be prolonged by another 24 hours for every 10 hostages released. Since Hamas and possibly other radical groups hold an estimated 230 hostages in Gaza, the pause in fighting and the flow of humanitarian aid could potentially continue into mid-December and beyond.

Advertisement

Until a few days ago, Netanyahu resisted all calls for a cease-fire—even a temporary “pause”—unless Hamas released all hostages ahead of time. The most far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition government stuck to that position during Tuesday’s debate on the proposal. However, Netanyahu himself pushed for the deal, which was also endorsed by Israel’s security and intelligence ministries. It easily passed the full Cabinet.

Advertisement

Israel has always been willing to strike lopsided deals to free hostages, and the deal struck Tuesday—after seven weeks of negotiations instigated by Qatar, a frequent middleman in dealings with Hamas—was less lopsided than many. In 2011, Israel freed more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of a single soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been nabbed by Palestinian militants on the border of Gaza five years earlier. (The few Israeli parliamentarians who opposed the current deal also criticized the Shalit trade, noting that one of the prisoners freed, Yahya Sinwar is now Hamas’ political leader, ranked No. 1 on the Israel Defense Forces’ kill list.)

Advertisement

The current phase of this seemingly eternal war began on Oct. 7, when Hamas militants cut through the fence dividing Israel from Gaza and brutally murdered 1,200 Jews, the vast majority of them civilians. Israel responded by pounding Gaza with airstrikes and mobilizing reservists for an invasion. The IDF said it was targeting Hamas sites that were located in residential neighborhoods, in some cases beneath hospitals and schools. More than 12,000 people have been killed in these strikes so far, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not specify how many of that number were civilians. Protests erupted worldwide, most of them against Israel’s airstrikes. Many demanded an Israeli cease-fire, saying little about Hamas’........

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