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It was Friday night when reports started coming in about a concert outside Moscow that had been targeted by terrorists. At first, the only images on social media were of the outside of the mall where the attack took place—a shooting, and then a fire. Then, there were videos from inside the venue—the sounds of gunshots and panic.

All weekend long, the Washington Post’s Shane Harris (no relation) was sorting through this evidence and trying to understand what exactly took place. He told me, “We’re seeing obviously a lot of reports via social media, including by people who were in the concert hall when it was attacked. We’re hearing from Russian officials who were on the scene investigating it, and who are issuing statements about body counts and sort-of objective things, and then maybe a separate category of not so objective information.”

All of those different sources—firsthand accounts, Russian investigators, American officials—do not agree about what took place.

At latest count, 137 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured. American officials say that Friday’s attack has all the hallmarks of ISIS, specifically ISIS-K, a branch of the Islamic State based out of Afghanistan. The Kremlin disagreed. “What we’re hearing coming out of President Putin and Russia as well as [from] Kremlin-backed or supportive broadcasters and journalists is an effort to try to blame this attack on Ukraine,” Harris said. But, at the same time, ISIS itself is taking credit.

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In social media posts via ISIS-K’s own news agency, the terror group released gruesome footage allegedly shot by the shooters themselves in the concert venue as proof of their responsibility. “It’s almost as if ISIS is responding in some way to Putin’s unwillingness to give them credit for the attack, because part of what ISIS wants here is to undermine Putin and Russia’s security apparatus,” Harris told me, “If the president of Russia in his public address refuses to acknowledge who actually did the attack, it’s not giving ISIS the kind of public relations victory it was hoping for.”

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On a recent episode of What Next, we spoke about the importance of this blame game. A portion of our conversation is transcribed below; it has been condensed and edited for clarity.

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Mary Harris: This was in a concert venue, also a mall, called Crocus City Hall, on the outskirts of Moscow. What was this place?

Shane Harris: So this is a big, kind of glitzy concert hall and public event space, northwest of central Moscow, out in a suburb. Sia played there at one point; other big bands have played there. Folks were there on Friday to see an older Russian rock band called Picnic.

How did the attack start?

From what we understand, these gunmen walked into the event space, then got into the concert hall, and started shooting concert-goers. There have been these very gruesome photos that show them killing people, including one of them cutting a person’s throat, reportedly. From what we can see from the videos that have been posted, the gunmen were met with no resistance. There wasn’t a big security presence at the hall, there weren’t guards there fighting back against them. These terrorists were able to just go in and essentially, with free rein, terrorize this place. They appeared to spread some kind of flammable liquid that then set the concert hall ablaze and ultimately brought down the roof. So the attack really destroyed this venue, too.

How quickly did ISIS claim credit for what had happened?

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It was a matter of hours. As soon as I saw reports of this attack, I immediately started contacting sources who said, “You know, this looks like ISIS-K.” You could kind of read the reporting and even see some of the initial imagery, and see that this gunman style of attack fit with their M.O.

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Some people might be confused here, because U.S.-backed forces claimed the Islamic State caliphate was defeated back in 2019. The caliphate isn’t ISIS, but still—I think some people may be surprised to hear ISIS.

Yeah, you’d be forgiven if you thought, “Wait a minute. I thought U.S. forces killed the leader of ISIS? And that this group was no more.”

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What we’re talking about here, in this Moscow attack, is a branch of ISIS that’s often known as ISIS-K, which stands for Khorasan. This group’s efforts have been focused on fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, which they do not see as sufficiently committed to pure Islamic law, Sharia, or Islamic rule.

It hasn’t gotten the level of attention that core ISIS got and that the United States was so committed to in its fight, but it’s an active division that has been doing a number of terrorist attacks. Folks may remember a few months ago there was this massive bombing in Iran that killed or around, I think, 90 people. That was ISIS-Khorasan. In January, there was an attack on a church in Turkey. That didn’t get a lot of attention.

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There have been attacks in Russia going back to 2019 by this group.

I don’t understand where Russia and Iran and Turkey come into play if ISIS-K is primarily concerned with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Can you explain?

Yeah. ISIS-K sees Russia as essentially having the blood of Muslims on its hands, and is particularly targeting Russia over its support of the [Taliban] regime and Syria. In some sense, ISIS-K even blames Russia for helping to deny it the caliphate that it wanted. You can go back all the way to jihadist struggles with Russia in Afghanistan in the 1970s. There is a longstanding feud between Russia and different militant groups like this.

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It seems to me like ISIS-K is a group that the U.S. is paying particular attention to. A day before this attack in Russia, U.S. Central Command was warning Congress that ISIS retains the ability and the will to attack the U.S. and Western interests abroad with little or no warning.

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So that’s one thing. It was clearly on someone’s mind. But then there was this very specific warning. On March 7, the U.S. government told Americans in Russia that the embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts.

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So, tell me a little bit about what your contacts inside the government are saying about ISIS-K, and why they are turning their attention to this group.

I think they’ve never stopped paying attention to it. When the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan a few years ago, you’ll recall that a lot of people who were opposed to that withdrawal said, we need a U.S. presence on the ground to continue monitoring terrorist activities, of which—you would put ISIS-K in that group.

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The proposal that the Biden administration made was that: We think we can do this kind of intelligence gathering and monitoring of potential threats emanating out of Afghanistan and the region without having boots on the ground. Well, this [attack in Moscow] is kind of evidence of that, insofar as the United States did get some degree of intelligence. We don’t know exactly how specific it was, but it was fairly specific as to concert halls, about what ISIS-K was planning. Clearly, in this case, there were indications that were pointing back to some group that was either in Russia or was targeting Russia.

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Do we know what was in the intelligence reports that led to that March 7 warning?

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Well, we can see the public warning about avoiding large gatherings, concerts. Beyond that, we still don’t know. And in talking to some sources, it seems like it might not have been very specific. Look, Russia is an adversary country, but the United States does still share information about threats to civilians. The question really, I think, to use the intelligence terminology, is, “How actionable was this information?” Did it say, “The Crocus City Hall is going to be targeted” or did it say “there are threats against large gatherings at places like concert halls?”

What we do know is that there was no security around that very public venue. And only a few days ago, Putin publicly was very dismissive of the warnings that the United States and other governments had made through these public and diplomatic channels, essentially saying, they’re trying to scare us. It’s just false information.

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As soon as this attack occurred, it seemed like the narrative inside Russia was really pushing people to consider that Ukraine was involved somehow, as far as I can tell, without evidence. Putin gave a speech where he talked about how there was an open door for the terrorists who had staged this attack and that they were heading to the Ukrainian border.

Yeah, so Putin gives this speech in which he tells people that these attackers, as they were fleeing, were heading towards Ukraine. And he never says Ukraine’s behind it, but he also talks about Nazis and their tactics of harming civilians in the occupied territories, which is essentially a reference to Ukraine.

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Because he refers to Ukrainians as Nazis.

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That’s right. So in this fairly unsubtle way, he is saying to the Russian public that the Ukrainians did this. They put these people up to it. Maybe they hired them.

The Russians have been putting out video of two of the supposed suspects, one of whom says he was actually hired to do this. We’ve seen reporting in recent days of the Russian government telling state-backed journalists in Russia to go with the line that Ukraine is behind this. And we’re now seeing prominent pundits and newscasters in Russia saying Ukraine did this. Ukraine is responsible for this.

None of that is surprising to me. I mean, when I first saw the news come across, my first thought was they’re going to blame Ukraine for this and use it as some kind of pretext for escalation.

What’s the response been from the Ukrainian government?

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Oh, that it’s absurd. They say they had absolutely nothing to do with this. I was talking, within the first hour of the attack, with a Ukrainian official who I just pointedly asked if your government was involved in this. And he responded, “Well, what would we have to gain from this? Why would we kill civilians in this way? This does nothing for us strategically,” and Ukrainians, including President Zelensky and other senior officials have been putting out public statements saying, “This is ridiculous, I mean, Putin invades our country, slaughters our civilians, and then turns around and blames us for killing his civilians when really it’s his weak and ineffective security apparatus that let this happen.” So both sides are taking rhetorical advantage of this moment.

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On Friday, a prominent Russian oligarch called for a nuclear strike on Ukraine. Do you think something like that could actually happen?

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In the first hours after this attack—and I think this is probably still true—my great concern was that Putin would use this attack as pretext for doing something truly escalatory and awful. And because Putin has openly flirted with using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, I admit, my mind kind of went there first.

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I think it would be a huge strategic blunder. But you have to think about it from his perspective; he’s not going to let a crisis like this go to waste. Is there something he could do to build a case for some more dramatic kind of action or possibly to build the case for mobilization of more forces, which would not necessarily be popular in Russia? But if he could say, look, the Ukrainians are slaughtering people in Moscow, maybe citizens who actually believe that line he’s peddling might be willing to go ahead with the rather unpopular mobilization of forces.

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This attack happened just a week after Vladimir Putin ran away with a presidential election in Russia, and one of the things that Vladimir Putin promises Russians in exchange for his ultimate control of the country is security. The New York Times called this attack “a searing counterpoint to Putin’s promise.” Do you think Russians are going to see it that way?

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I wish they would. I’m not optimistic of that because we’ve seen terrorist attacks in Russia and opposition to Putin or rejection of Putin does not follow from them. Rather, what happens is you see Putin strengthening his stranglehold on information, implementing more onerous security measures domestically, embarking on foreign adventures like the invasion of Ukraine.

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You’re absolutely right that the fundamental compact that he is making with Russians is: I am a strong leader. I will protect you.

It’s precisely why, when they are hit in this way, in large measure, because of the failure of his security apparatus, he rushes immediately to blame someone else for it. He will never accept blame himself. In fact, he cannot accept blame. He has to do everything he can to push the narrative the other way and convince people that his version of the story is true, or to at least confuse people to a sufficient degree that maybe they throw their hands up at it. This is what he’s done after every attack. And so I don’t anticipate this is going to be any different this time.

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How Putin Is Blaming Ukraine for the Moscow Terrorist Attack

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26.03.2024
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It was Friday night when reports started coming in about a concert outside Moscow that had been targeted by terrorists. At first, the only images on social media were of the outside of the mall where the attack took place—a shooting, and then a fire. Then, there were videos from inside the venue—the sounds of gunshots and panic.

All weekend long, the Washington Post’s Shane Harris (no relation) was sorting through this evidence and trying to understand what exactly took place. He told me, “We’re seeing obviously a lot of reports via social media, including by people who were in the concert hall when it was attacked. We’re hearing from Russian officials who were on the scene investigating it, and who are issuing statements about body counts and sort-of objective things, and then maybe a separate category of not so objective information.”

All of those different sources—firsthand accounts, Russian investigators, American officials—do not agree about what took place.

At latest count, 137 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured. American officials say that Friday’s attack has all the hallmarks of ISIS, specifically ISIS-K, a branch of the Islamic State based out of Afghanistan. The Kremlin disagreed. “What we’re hearing coming out of President Putin and Russia as well as [from] Kremlin-backed or supportive broadcasters and journalists is an effort to try to blame this attack on Ukraine,” Harris said. But, at the same time, ISIS itself is taking credit.

Advertisement

In social media posts via ISIS-K’s own news agency, the terror group released gruesome footage allegedly shot by the shooters themselves in the concert venue as proof of their responsibility. “It’s almost as if ISIS is responding in some way to Putin’s unwillingness to give them credit for the attack, because part of what ISIS wants here is to undermine Putin and Russia’s security apparatus,” Harris told me, “If the president of Russia in his public address refuses to acknowledge who actually did the attack, it’s not giving ISIS the kind of public relations victory it was hoping for.”

Advertisement

Advertisement

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On a recent episode of What Next, we spoke about the importance of this blame game. A portion of our conversation is transcribed below; it has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Advertisement

Mary Harris: This was in a concert venue, also a mall, called Crocus City Hall, on the outskirts of Moscow. What was this place?

Shane Harris: So this is a big, kind of glitzy concert hall and public event space, northwest of central Moscow, out in a suburb. Sia played there at one point; other big bands have played there. Folks were there on Friday to see an older Russian rock band called Picnic.

How did the attack start?

From what we understand, these gunmen walked into the event space, then got into the concert hall, and started shooting concert-goers. There have been these very gruesome photos that show them killing people, including one of them cutting a person’s throat, reportedly. From what we can see from the videos that have been posted, the gunmen were met with no resistance. There wasn’t a big security presence at the hall, there weren’t guards there fighting back against them. These terrorists were able to just go in and essentially, with free rein, terrorize this place. They appeared to spread some kind of flammable liquid that then set the concert hall ablaze and ultimately brought down the roof. So the attack really destroyed this venue, too.

How quickly did ISIS claim credit for what had happened?

........

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