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This week, our eyers were on New Hampshire, where Donald Trump won, again. This was not a surprise. Trump’s poll numbers have been robust for weeks. And over the past few days, he’s been basking in his assumed dominance. The Washington Post’s Isaac Arnsdorf has been following Trump around. He tweeted out this picture of Trump with his tongue out, looking incredibly relaxed and sort of silly. It captured the campaign’s current mood.

“It was right after the news broke that DeSantis was dropping out, and he’s walking in the conquering hero,” Arnsdorf said.

This is a real turnaround. It’s tough to remember now, but I’ll do my best to remind you how things looked in late 2022. In the wake of the 2022 midterms—elections in which Trump’s favored candidates lost their races, for the most part—some Republicans seemed eager to move on. Virginia’s lieutenant governor went on Fox Business to say, “The voters have spoken, and they have said that they want a different leader.” Sen. John Thune of South Dakota said, “You can’t have a party that’s built around one person’s personality.” And this was former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan: “I think Trump’s kind of a drag on our ticket. I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically.”

Back then, I would have said that Trump’s legal troubles were going to be a huge problem for his candidacy, but that’s not how it’s worked out in the primary, at least. “It had the effect of pressuring Republicans to come to his defense, of circling the wagons around him,” Arnsdorf said. “Every time he goes into a courtroom, he makes headlines. In 2024, when the candidate is Donald Trump, a court appearance can be a campaign stop that is even more effective at getting their message out than a traditional rally.”

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After New Hampshire, Trump’s path to the Republican nomination seems clear, indictments be damned. On a recent episode of What Next, we discussed how one of his greatest liabilities become a campaign superpower. Our conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.

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Mary Harris: A couple days ago, we did a show about the implosion of Ron DeSantis’ campaign. And one of the things that my guest, Ben Mathis-Lilley highlighted was the fact that Donald Trump actually seemed to become the leading Republican nominee just as his legal troubles got serious. I’m wondering if we can go back in time to last spring to lay out how Trump’s campaign and Trump’s legal liability have been knitted together. Trump was first indicted in Manhattan in early April. There weren’t any cameras in the courtroom, but that didn’t mean he didn’t make a show out of it.

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Isaac Arnsdorf: You can look at the tracking polls, and there’s a very clear inflection point right around April 1. The indictments obviously had a huge amount to do with that. The campaign used that moment to pressure Republicans to come to Trump’s defense and then very quickly turned those into endorsements. By the end of the month, a lot of Republicans were calling his nomination inevitable.

A really telling moment was DeSantis’ initial reaction to that first indictment—which had to do with the hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election—which was to distance himself or make an underhanded swipe at the underlying tawdry details of that case. And he very quickly got a lot of blowback to that and walked it back, and then reversed himself and talked about how he wasn’t going to participate in extraditing Trump to New York as the governor of Florida. That really captures how, throughout the whole primary, none of the challengers to Trump ever found a way of attacking him that didn’t backfire with Republicans, most of whom still really like him.

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“A court appearance can be a campaign stop that is even more effective at getting their message out than a traditional rally.” — Isaac Arnsdorf

In the months since that first indictment, which the district attorney in New York City brought, Trump’s been in and out of a lot of courthouses. Could you just give a quick scan of the other cases he’s involved with across the country?

We mentioned the one in New York. Then there are two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith. There’s one in Florida having to do with his alleged mishandling of classified documents that he took from the White House after leaving office. Then there is the case in D.C. about his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. And the Fulton County district attorney has another election interference case.

And then there are the civil cases. He’s currently in court dealing with E. Jean Carroll and defamation. He’s just gotten out of a case with the New York state attorney general.

Right.

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Talk to me about the evolution of Trump as a courtroom character. Did he always seem to recognize the power of being a candidate-defendant?

If you go back before he was a politician and look at how he did depositions, it was not the Trump that we see on TV. He actually did the deposition the way you’re supposed to do the deposition where you give short answers, you only answer the question that was asked, and you don’t give up anything.

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And I was struck by when the deposition came out in the E. Jean Carroll case the first time, that was a deposition that was political. It was clearly meant for public consumption. He was being very combative. He was doing his campaign talking points. The campaign and the legal defense have merged.

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It struck me that in June, after he got indicted in Georgia and there was a mug shot taken of him, he actually went on Truth Social, his social media platform, to sell T-shirts that had his mug shot on them.

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The mug shot merch specifically is next level. Even before there was the real mug shot, people were making mug shot magnets and T-shirts and hats. I had to laugh because the height on the chart behind him always varied. But then, once the real mug shot came out, that has really been the icon of this campaign.

I was struck by one 24-hour period of campaigning in particular, because less than 12 hours after Trump celebrated a decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses, he was back in New York City to be sitting in the chair for the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial. He had skipped appearing at the E. Jean Carroll trial the first time around. But then all of a sudden, there he was, front and center, glowering at the jury.

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Right. So, another instance of him leaning into this where he didn’t have to be there. And toggling back and forth—turning around and flying from the campaign trail to the courtroom, all in service of making them one in the same.

I know you’re spending a lot of time on the ground in early primary states. How is all this playing with potential voters? He’s not really here. He seems to be in court. What do they make of it?

I haven’t seen any indication that he’s paid any political price for that. Republican voters I’ve talked to will say that that’s not his fault. That’s what the prosecutors are trying to do—take him off the campaign. They definitely don’t hold that against him. You definitely talk to Trump supporters who want to support him not in spite of but because of the prosecutions. And then you also talk to Republicans who do have those misgivings about whether they want their nominee to be someone who’s indicted or maybe even convicted and whether that’s going to make it harder for him to win in November.

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How does Trump talk about his indictments when he’s on the trail, when he does show up?

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Trump has made the indictments core to his message, portraying himself and his supporters together as victims.

Does that resonate with voters?

It really does. And that’s confusing to people outside the movement. What it means in the movement is that if you believe that these are all made-up, politicized charges, and they can do that to Trump with all his power and resources, then what chance do the rest of us have? And for people who do feel like the system is stacked against them, that’s very powerful.

So far, Trump is choosing whether to show up for court, because only the civil cases have gone to trial. Once his criminal cases get underway, his attendance will no longer be optional. But it’s unclear if any or all of those cases will make it to court before Americans make it to the ballot box. Take Trump’s election interference case: It’s one of two that federal prosecutor Jack Smith is working on. It’s scheduled to start right before Super Tuesday.

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But that is on hold because Trump is arguing that he is immune to any prosecution for actions he took as president. That is currently at the appeals court in D.C., but everyone expects that to go up to the Supreme Court. Ultimately, the Supreme Court’s going to have to decide if that can go ahead. And that might not happen by March, so that timeline could slip.

If that doesn’t happen in March, then you could see maybe one of the state-level cases in New York or Georgia leapfrogging ahead. The New York trial was deferring to the feds, but that could move back up if the federal case isn’t happening. And then, in Georgia, the prosecutor has said that she wants the trial to start in the fall and continue into the new year.

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It’ll be really interesting to see whether Trump shifts who he is when he’s in court. With the previous cases, it seems like he’s just getting louder. And there have been reports of him muttering to himself in ways that the jury can overhear. And that makes the judge in these cases really important. How do you think that will impact whatever happens in all of these cases?

When he was in the courtroom in New York, he got into it with the judge about how he was talking back too much. Ordinarily, that would be the last thing that anyone would do is antagonize a judge like that. There’s an old saying, “The most powerful person in America is the judge in his or her own courtroom,” but Trump is really testing those boundaries because what is the judge really going to do to a major party nominee and former president during an election? The tools available to the judge are fines and jail. He has been fined for violating a gag order in the New York civil trial by attacking the court staff. Trump is always testing people’s boundaries and weaknesses and daring a judge to either sanction him, which becomes the story, or let him get away with breaking the rules, which also makes him look powerful. So it’s an impossible choice.

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I’m curious how you think other politicians have dealt with Trump’s status as a defendant and whether they’ve dealt with it well. In the Republican primary, as you said, it seemed like most of Trump’s competitors weren’t really attacking Trump as weak because of his legal situation. Even if they were complaining his court appearances skewed the race in his favor. What do you make of that? It seems like your competitor has an Achilles’ heel, but you’re not striking it.

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Well, voters didn’t want to hear it. The closest they ever came was, like, Nikki Haley talking about chaos and drama. And DeSantis would talk about electability. So that’s the proxy. It’s looking for a way to acknowledge that this baggage exists, even though it’s not his fault, but we all can see that it’s there. And maybe it’s not ideal.

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But is that a missed opportunity? Because you’re not really running against the guy.

They all paid for a lot of polling and focus groups and research on what messages they could use to attack Trump. And the findings were almost always that even so much as contrasting positions between Trump and the other candidate hurt the other candidate because the voters viewed it as an implicit attack on Trump.

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How do you anticipate Joe Biden will handle Trump’s status as a defendant? Because if he attacks Trump too hard, he might risk making the case for Trump that he really is the subject of a political witch hunt. And Joe Biden has been trying to avoid that.

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Correct. And for that reason, you’re not going to see the Biden campaign really saying anything about any of the cases, and leaving that to other Democrats. But what you do hear from the Biden campaign is an emphasis on the stakes of the election in terms of a choice between democracy and authoritarianism—emphasizing the statements that Trump has made about how he would wield power in a second term, which include investigating and prosecuting his critics; more forcefully deploying the military domestically, including in response to any protests on Inauguration Day; and also deploying the military for a massive operation of apprehending, detaining, and deporting undocumented immigrants on a scale never seen in this country.

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View Transcript

Do you think Donald Trump can win from the courtroom?

Win what?

The presidency?

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Well, I ask because there can be some space between what works well as a legal strategy and what plays well politically. And some tension between what the lawyers want and what the campaign wants and what the client wants, or the candidate wants.

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I feel like you and I are talking at this very particular moment. We’re in the middle of the primaries, which is when each party’s base is at its most powerful. And the Republican base really likes Trump a lot. So right now it seems like campaigning from the courtroom is smart on Trump’s part. Do you think this advantage may crumble when it comes to the general election?

Elections are about margins, and it was an election that was decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a few states last time, and it’s going to be close again. And it only takes a few Republicans who decide they can’t stomach it, or a few independents who decide they don’t want it or stay home.

Look, it’s a very divided country. It’s a two-party system, and either party candidate always has a very real possibility of winning. It’s just not really more complicated than that.

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This week, our eyers were on New Hampshire, where Donald Trump won, again. This was not a surprise. Trump’s poll numbers have been robust for weeks. And over the past few days, he’s been basking in his assumed dominance. The Washington Post’s Isaac Arnsdorf has been following Trump around. He tweeted out this picture of Trump with his tongue out, looking incredibly relaxed and sort of silly. It captured the campaign’s current mood.

“It was right after the news broke that DeSantis was dropping out, and he’s walking in the conquering hero,” Arnsdorf said.

This is a real turnaround. It’s tough to remember now, but I’ll do my best to remind you how things looked in late 2022. In the wake of the 2022 midterms—elections in which Trump’s favored candidates lost their races, for the most part—some Republicans seemed eager to move on. Virginia’s lieutenant governor went on Fox Business to say, “The voters have spoken, and they have said that they want a different leader.” Sen. John Thune of South Dakota said, “You can’t have a party that’s built around one person’s personality.” And this was former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan: “I think Trump’s kind of a drag on our ticket. I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically.”

Back then, I would have said that Trump’s legal troubles were going to be a huge problem for his candidacy, but that’s not how it’s worked out in the primary, at least. “It had the effect of pressuring Republicans to come to his defense, of circling the wagons around him,” Arnsdorf said. “Every time he goes into a courtroom, he makes headlines. In 2024, when the candidate is Donald Trump, a court appearance can be a campaign stop that is even more effective at getting their message out than a traditional rally.”

Advertisement

After New Hampshire, Trump’s path to the Republican nomination seems clear, indictments be damned. On a recent episode of What Next, we discussed how one of his greatest liabilities become a campaign superpower. Our conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Advertisement

Advertisement

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Mary Harris: A couple days ago, we did a show about the implosion of Ron DeSantis’ campaign. And one of the things that my guest, Ben Mathis-Lilley highlighted was the fact that Donald Trump actually seemed to become the leading Republican nominee just as his legal troubles got serious. I’m wondering if we can go back in time to last spring to lay out how Trump’s campaign and Trump’s legal liability have been knitted together. Trump was first indicted in Manhattan in early April. There weren’t any cameras in the courtroom, but that didn’t mean he didn’t make a show out of it.

Advertisement

Isaac Arnsdorf: You can look at the tracking polls, and there’s a very clear inflection point right around April 1. The indictments obviously had a huge amount to do with that. The campaign used that moment to pressure Republicans to come to Trump’s defense and then very quickly turned those into endorsements. By the end of the month, a lot of Republicans were calling his nomination inevitable.

A really telling moment was DeSantis’ initial reaction to that first indictment—which had to do with the hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election—which was to distance himself or make an underhanded swipe at the underlying tawdry details of that case. And he very quickly got a lot of blowback to that and walked it back, and then reversed himself and talked about how he wasn’t going to participate in extraditing Trump to New York as the governor of Florida. That really captures how, throughout the whole........

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