We use cookies to provide some features and experiences in QOSHE

More information  .  Close
Aa Aa Aa
- A +

For China, 2 per cent growth nightmare a real possibility this year

27 0 250
14.01.2019

China’s growth slowdown is reaching crisis point. How bad could it be? Very bad, judging by the weaker signals coming out of China right now. Its 2019 GDP growth rate could end up well outside the consensus range of expectations, which has been between 5 and 7 per cent.

Negative forces are building and China could hit a brick wall very soon with economic expansion collapsing, sinking to as low as 2 per cent in the worst-case scenario. A hard landing on such a scale would be unprecedented, catastrophic and a game-changer for Beijing.

You don’t need to look very far to see where the trouble lies. Vulnerability is written all over the domestic economy – weak car sales, lacklustre property prices, listless consumer confidence, sagging money supply growth and acute stock market pain say it all. Weakness is rife throughout the international economy, too – trade wars, global policy tightening, Germany half way to recession, latent euro troubles, deflation worries in Japan, a political crisis in the United States, credit default risks and a hard Brexit in Britain are all adding up. It’s a mess with no apparent happy ending.

The world is in trouble and China will get sucked in as a........

© South China Morning Post