And also who should win.
In some sense, this has been the most boring Oscar campaign in years. The minute Oppenheimer blew past all expectations to become a critical and commercial smash, it seemed clear it would be an Academy Awards front-runner. Through the long and complicated slog of awards season, that prediction has largely come true: Christopher Nolan’s J. Robert Oppenheimer biopic has been a juggernaut, collecting Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and guild and critics’ awards on its way to an expected Best Picture triumph.
But the expected dominance of Oppenheimer is merely an obvious conclusion to a night that may still surprise, particularly in the lead-acting categories and the two screenplay awards. As Hollywood gathers to celebrate a fraught but exciting year for cinema, with hits such as Barbie and critical sensations such as Killers of the Flower Moon also up for a slew of prizes, which categories will provide the best chances for a shocking result? Here are my predictions.
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is probably the most fluid Oscar race, with Gladstone seen as a slight favorite going into the final days. Her arresting work in Martin Scorsese’s epic has been the subject of a little category confusion—her character, Mollie, is central to the plot but goes missing for a good chunk, as she’s bedridden by a conspiratorial plot to kill her. Some industry experts thought Gladstone might try the supporting category, but she was wise to shoot for the lead, given that Mollie is the heart of the movie. Should Gladstone take home the prize, she would be the first Native American actor to win an acting Oscar—a huge milestone. Her main competition is Stone, whose extremely physical comedic masterclass in Poor Things would be a winner in many a year. But Stone already has an Oscar for 2017’s La La Land, and voters may be reluctant to award her another trophy so soon. Bening and Mulligan are both beloved multiple-time nominees, but both of their movies had more committed detractors, while Hüller’s complex work in Anatomy of a Fall is sure to have passionate but not widespread support.
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Who Ought to Win: Lily Gladstone
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Despite appearing in almost every frame of Oppenheimer, Murphy was a perpetual underdog early in this awards season. The fear was that Oppenheimer would be passed over in this category because Murphy’s performance was too internal and his reputation as a fearsomely good actor was maybe less well-known in America. I’m starting to think that’s not the case: Murphy won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Screen Actors Guild Award, a combination that very strongly indicates Oscars success. Giamatti’s charmingly grumpy turn in The Holdovers is a great reminder of everything he’s brought to the table for decades as an actor, and the same could be said for first-time nominee Wright. But Murphy is the galvanizing force in what seems to be voters’ favorite movie of the year, and his triumph may end up being a no-brainer. Domingo’s nomination was heartening because he’s one of the most thrilling working actors, but Rustin was otherwise ignored; before Maestro was released to the public, I might have predicted Cooper, but the film’s divisiveness with critics and audiences means he will once again leave Oscar night without a win.
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Who Ought to Win: Cillian Murphy
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
This race has been sealed up for months: Randolph has won nearly every pre-Oscars award. There’s a reason for that: She’s superb in The Holdovers, where she plays a mother grieving the loss of her son to the Vietnam War, and imbues her performance with balled-up pain and sadness while also earning the film’s biggest laughs. Foster, a two-time winner, is just happy to be here; her recognition is a sign that voters are happy to see her back on-screen. The other nominees are all being recognized for a standout moment in their respective films: Blunt’s steeliness in her deposition scene, Ferrara’s centerpiece monologue, and Brooks’s fantastic number “Hell No!”
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Who Ought to Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This is perhaps the most stacked category of the evening, and that’s before we acknowledge some big snubs for Willem Dafoe and Charles Melton. Downey Jr. is the runaway favorite in what will be the final coronation in a career of ups and downs: First nominated for an Oscar for 1992’s Chaplin, he was at one point uninsurable because of his substance-abuse issues; he then became the biggest movie star in the world as the face of the Marvel brand. In Oppenheimer, he gives a meaty performance as the seething bureaucrat Lewis Strauss, the kind of dramatic turn voters love. It’s the only thing keeping Gosling from the win—Ken might be the pop-culture character of the year, but the Academy’s obvious disdain for Barbie’s silliness seems to be keeping it from being a top contender. And although I loved De Niro’s villainous performance in Flower Moon, he’s taken the Oscars stage before.
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Who Ought to Win: Ryan Gosling
Nominees: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari (Anatomy of a Fall), David Hemingson (The Holdovers), Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer (Maestro), Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik (May December), Celine Song (Past Lives)
Both screenplay races are very strong and feel like they could go in surprising directions—not atypical for the Academy, which often bucks trends in its writing categories. I’d give Anatomy of a Fall a small edge here, considering its general over-indexing with the Oscars: It made less than $5 million at the domestic box office yet scored Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress nods. The Holdovers is a well-liked, witty work, and screenplay trophies often go to movies laden with funny dialogue; Past Lives, another Best Picture contender, could also get recognition here. May December’s spiky, challenging, ripped-from-the-headlines weirdness was too much for voters in every other category, but it’s nice to see it noted.
Who Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Who Ought to Win: May December
Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach (Barbie), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Tony McNamara (Poor Things), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Adapted Screenplay could end up being another spot for Oppenheimer to grab a trophy, partly because Nolan crammed a doorstop-size biography into a legible script. Poor Things and American Fiction were both popular across the board, and this would be a logical place for them to win—the American Fiction writer-director Jefferson did collect a screenwriting BAFTA this year, which suggests real strength. But I’m going to bet that the backlash against Barbie’s snub in some major categories (Best Director and Best Actress) propels Barbie to a win here. One factor against it is that its screenplay is considered an “adaptation” even though it doesn’t work off of any specific material besides an enormous web of merchandising—but still, this is the place to give Gerwig applause for making the biggest hit of the year.
Who Will Win: Barbie
Who Ought to Win: Oppenheimer
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Assuming he wins, Nolan’s arc with the Oscars will be remarkably similar to Steven Spielberg’s. Over the past two decades, Nolan has been a commercial powerhouse who’s often ignored by awards bodies because he trends toward making flash-bang genre films: The Dark Knight was blanked for Picture and Director, and Inception was also ignored for Director. But now that he’s made a historical epic that became a smash box-office hit, all is forgiven. The Oscars are beyond ready to tip their cap to a champion of cinema who also happened to make a movie that’s “serious” in the way that voters appreciate.
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Who Ought to Win: Christopher Nolan
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There’s been some mild noise about spoiler contenders here—maybe Barbie will ride the backlash to a win; maybe The Zone of Interest will capitalize on buzzing discussion of a film that’s daringly topical. But Oppenheimer is a prestige World War II biographical drama that made almost $1 billion at the box office, proving that there’s a market for adult movies in an era when the Oscars have desperately grasped for any chance at relevance with wider audiences. It is going to win Best Picture, and possibly with a robust total of trophies (maybe eight or nine) that resembles the kind of classic sweep we used to get more of—think Titanic or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Ought to Win: Oppenheimer
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