The summit showed that Beijing still needs Washington. That’s a problem Xi Jinping is trying to solve.
By meeting President Joe Biden in San Francisco yesterday, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made a tacit, and probably uncomfortable, admission that China still needs the United States, whether he likes it or not. That’s why the summit will likely reinforce his intent to overthrow American global power.
For now, the meeting was a win for Biden and his China policy. Biden’s foreign-policy team has argued that the United States can both compete and, at times, cooperate with China, while stressing that continued communication can prevent relations from descending into confrontation. This approach has often appeared overly optimistic: The two sides have continually sparred over Taiwan, technology, and human rights, and dialogue has frequently broken down.
Read: Xi Jinping is done with the established world order
The fact that the two men met at all is evidence that Biden’s strategy might have merit. Even better, Biden won some tangible (though minor) benefits. Xi agreed to restore a military dialogue with Washington and to help curb the illicit export from China of chemicals used to make fentanyl. Biden may even get a few pandas in the deal, as Xi indicated his willingness to once again send the rare bears to American zoos as existing agreements expire.
Xi’s change of heart is almost certainly attributable to the mounting difficulties he faces both at home and abroad. The Chinese economy is struggling badly, as private investment sinks and the property sector unravels. A relatively unimpressive turnout for Xi’s October forum to celebrate his Belt and Road Initiative—Russian President Vladimir Putin was the most prominent attendee—highlighted China’s growing international isolation from the world’s major powers. Chinese leaders must have calculated that they can’t afford to stiff-arm Biden much longer.
After his Biden summit, Xi even attended a dinner where he schmoozed with a large group of American businessmen. Foreign direct investment in China turned negative, on a net basis, in the third quarter of this year for the first time on record. Xi felt the need to make a personal appeal to woo that investment back. “China is ready to be a partner and friend of the U.S.,” he told the business leaders.
The problem facing Xi is that his words don’t match his actions. Just days before the dinner with American CEOs, Beijing’s finance ministry proposed extra cybersecurity checks on accounting firms dealing with Chinese corporate data—the latest in a series of security-obsessed measures that have spooked foreign business. The same is true in Xi’s foreign policy. China’s leader continues to deepen ties to Iran, which supports Hamas and other destabilizing groups in the Middle East. When Biden pressed him to use this influence to try to prevent the current Gaza crisis from escalating into a regional war, Xi appeared noncommittal.
If Xi wants American cooperation and American cash, he’ll have to do much more than chitchat. Restoring trust will require real changes in policy—among them, returning to market-oriented economic reform, distancing China from Russia, and working with Washington to ease crises in Ukraine and Gaza. Because he is unwilling to make such changes, Xi will depart San Francisco largely empty-handed. He failed to get the relief he sought from U.S. exports controls and sanctions that are biting the Chinese economy.
Read: The China model is dead
Xi’s attempt to charm at the Golden Gate is therefore unlikely to be more than a temporary expedient, meant to stabilize relations at a moment of need while keeping the long-term goal—a China-centric world—clearly in view. The Chinese government is already using the summit to bolster Xi’s global ambition, characterizing the Biden meeting as a victory of “Xiplomacy” and evidence that China is a responsible world power committed to the greater good. With the summit, “China has once again extended the hand of friendship toward the other side of the Pacific,” the state news agency, Xinhua, said. This type of messaging plays well in the global South, where China is attempting to build a coalition of support to challenge American primacy.
Throughout his tenure, Xi has made clear that he intends China to be self-reliant, free of vulnerabilities to the United States, and capable of shaping the world order to suit Beijing’s interests. That he had to come to San Francisco hat in hand is likely to convince him further of the necessity and urgency of his current course. The summit probably demonstrates not an improvement in U.S.-China relations but the best the relationship can get.
Don’t Expect U.S.-China Relations to Get Better
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16.11.2023
The summit showed that Beijing still needs Washington. That’s a problem Xi Jinping is trying to solve.
By meeting President Joe Biden in San Francisco yesterday, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, made a tacit, and probably uncomfortable, admission that China still needs the United States, whether he likes it or not. That’s why the summit will likely reinforce his intent to overthrow American global power.
For now, the meeting was a win for Biden and his China policy. Biden’s foreign-policy team has argued that the United States can both compete and, at times, cooperate with China, while stressing that continued communication can prevent relations from descending into confrontation. This approach has often appeared overly optimistic: The two sides have continually sparred over Taiwan, technology, and human rights, and dialogue has frequently broken down.
Read: Xi Jinping is done with the established world order
The fact that the two men met at all is evidence that Biden’s strategy might have merit. Even better, Biden won some tangible (though minor) benefits. Xi agreed to restore a military dialogue with Washington and to help curb the illicit export from China of........
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