We have to impeach Joe Biden before we can find out whether he’s worthy of impeachment. That’s my interpretation, at least, of the House Republicans’ decision to vote for an impeachment inquiry on Wednesday.
The operative word is inquiry. Still, this smells like a fishing expedition—that is to say, an investigation in search of a crime. There is no direct evidence that Biden is guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors.” On this, even some House Republicans agree. And yet, even Republicans who warned about “retribution politics” still voted to support the probe.
They were persuaded to do so because, as The New York Times notes, “The impeachment inquiry resolution does not accuse Mr. Biden of any wrongdoing.”
Instead, as The Times continues, the inquiry “authorizes three Republican-led panels to continue their investigations and petition a court for grand jury materials; authorizes subpoenas and retroactively approves many that have already been issued; and allows for the hiring of outside counsel to help with the inquiry.”
That certainly takes the rough edges off of impeachment, and provides some plausible deniability for Republicans who represent purple districts to explain they were “just asking questions.”
Politically speaking, it’s hard to blame Republicans for making such a clearly cynical move. There is obviously pressure from Donald Trump to impeach Biden—if for no other reason than to muddy the waters and create the impression that everybody is equally corrupt.
And make no mistake, there is at least a chance that it could pay off.
First, it’s possible that something will emerge that actually implicates Joe Biden. If you stop and frisk enough people (absent probable cause), you’re bound to find someone who’s concealing something illegal.
Second, it’s worth remembering that although the two-year Republican-led Benghazi probe didn’t uncover any new evidence of wrongdoing, it did lead to the discovery that, as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton used a private email server.
This discovery arguably led to Donald Trump’s victory, thanks in no small part to then-FBI Director James Comey’s decision to reopen the Clinton email investigation just before the 2016 presidential election.
Digging up dirt sometimes leads you down paths that can be consequential. Call it the “Benghazi effect.”
A third scenario is that an impeachment inquiry could drone on indefinitely, creating brief spasms of embarrassment for Biden, and a general miasma of corruption, without ever actually coming to a head.
This scenario could gradually weaken Biden on the margins, while simultaneously allowing Republicans to avoid ever taking the actual step of trying to impeach the president.
That is, if Democrats allow Republicans to get away with it.
The good news for Biden is that—as I have previously noted—the most likely outcome is that an impeachment inquiry redounds to Biden’s favor by finally galvanizing Democrats behind their president.
What is more, while impeachment would likely unite Democrats behind Biden, it could also eventually divide Republicans.
This theory hinges on the premise that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and other establishment Republicans view the impeachment inquiry as a cynical game with a slim chance of striking gold.
Meanwhile, MAGA Republicans—think Reps. Marorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, and Lauren Boebert—earnestly believe this inquiry to be the first step toward a real impeachment vote.
To paraphrase Apollo Creed’s trainer in the first Rocky movie, “They don't know it’s a damn show, they think it’s a damn fight.”
At some point, MAGA Republicans (who don’t know this is a damn show) will want to follow through on impeachment. At that point, Johnson will either have to schedule a vote—or risk splitting the party and being portrayed as a RINO sellout.
If the vote fails, Democrats can scream from the mountaintops that Biden was exonerated.
Or if the vote passes (assuming no smoking gun emerges), Biden won’t be convicted in the U.S. Senate, but it will cost some House Republicans their seats.
Ultimately, though, the big reason the decision to support an impeachment inquiry spells trouble for Republicans is because it’s always a bad sign when a political party pins their hopes on a silver bullet.
Instead of doing the spade work of crafting ideas and legislation and coming up with a party platform that deserves victory, political parties face a temptation to search for a quick fix via some deus ex machina. After all, why do all the hard work when you can simply impeach and remove your opponent?
The fact that Republicans are putting this much effort into impeaching a president who doesn’t seem to have committed any high crimes or misdemeanors, says more about today’s Republican Party than it does about Joe Biden.
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