Two scary things keep happening in the current presidential showdown. First, Donald Trump keeps showing us he’s more dangerous to the cause of liberal democracy than ever, and second, he keeps gaining in the polls.
The most recent reminder of the former came during a speech to the New York Young Republican Club this weekend (attended by a veritable “legion of doom” of some of the most villainous forces on the MAGA right).
During his speech, Trump defended his “dictator for one day” comments, calling the notion that he is a threat to democracy a “hoax.” Going one step further, Trump also argued that Joe Biden presents the real threat to democracy, a message he has been floating for a while now—even promising to “save democracy” from Democrats.
To the uninitiated, these comments might seem laughable. But Trump is engaged in a sophisticated effort to gaslight us (regardless of whether this is a premeditated strategy or merely a result of his instinctual cunning). He is systematically undermining the contrasts that are most likely to favor Biden in the 2024 election.
Let me explain. It is traditionally understood that issues have built-in skews. For example, historically speaking, if we are talking about crime, Republicans tend to win. That’s because (fair or not) the public tends to trust them more than Democrats on this issue.
That’s not to say these perceptions are immutable. However, they are difficult to alter. And, under normal circumstances, it would seem reasonable to think that the 2024 issue matrix has already hardened.
According to this premise, if voters show up on Election Day in 2024 worried about the preservation of democracy or abortion rights, Biden wins.
Conversely, if voters show up to the polls worrying about the economy or the age of a candidate, Trump wins.
The goal for either candidate is to play most of the game on your home turf. So if you’re Trump and someone talks about democracy (Biden’s turf), according to this “Campaign 101” theory, you should redirect the subject back to Biden’s age and/or the economy.
A reasonable politician accepts these terms. When they don’t—as was the case when Biden unwisely sought to invoke the economy and brag about “Bidenomics”—it usually backfires.
But Trump isn’t reasonable. In fact, he believes he can actualize his own reality. And maybe he can?
Case in point: Instead of parrying the issue of abortion (as a normal Republican might try to do in this political environment), Trump sought to attack pro-lifers as being too extreme. Whether that strategy will work remains to be seen. But as The New York Times noted, Trump is “appearing less vulnerable than fellow Republicans despite his key role in shaping the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade.”
If you think that took a lot of chutzpah, imagine the audacity required for a man who essentially attempted a coup on Jan. 6, to believe that he can reframe the issue of “democracy” and win.
But his strategy just might work. Remember, Trump is a master at the art of projection. Instead of playing defense, he likes to accuse his opponents of the very thing that he himself is guilty of.
He has done it before. Take, for example, the term “fake news.” Most of us first heard the term in reference to Macedonian teens who were making money off phony pro-Trump Facebook posts. But Trump co-opted the term and weaponized it against CNN.
Today, it’s clear that Trump has redefined “fake news” to the point where few people even remember its original meaning. George Orwell himself would be impressed by Trump’s ability to co-opt words and ideas and then assign them the exact opposite definition.
Again, it seems implausible that someone could get away with a scheme this grandiose, and maybe (as was the case in 2020 and 2022) he won’t.
But even if Trump can simply muddy the waters regarding the issue of democracy, that will benefit his campaign. And for now, at least, the data suggests that Trump is on a roll.
Case in point: A new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll shows Trump up 8 points since October over his Republican primary rivals, boosting him to 51 percent in the state.
Meanwhile, in the general election, new CNN polls conducted by SSRS show Trump leading Biden in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia.
Again, the election is still a long way off and polls have been known to be wrong.
From day one, Biden seems to have keenly understood that the way to defeat Trump and MAGA is to stress the threat to democracy—even when polls suggested that voters didn’t care much. Perhaps it will work for Biden yet again.
This time, however, Trump has decided he will not concede the premise.
He may not win, but Trump is playing a very high-level game of three-dimensional chess that, I suspect, he might not even consciously understand. Never underestimate his lizard brain.
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