I can't work out the Labor Party.
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They rebrand themselves as the party of the faceless men, force out their best leader in a decade and pass up an achievable pathway to power.
Former Labor Minister Dr Julian Amos quite rightly calls the ALP's administrative committee "Off the dial mad".
You will recall Labor leader Bec White on election night talked up the chance of a Labor minority government, even with just 10 seats and said she would seek to stay on as leader.
The next morning the party's unelected administrative committee overruled the elected Ms White and conceded the election to the Liberals.
This was a clear case of the faceless admin' committee asserting its dominance over the Labor Caucus. It was a coup.
Franklin MP Dean Winter is widely tipped to become leader now that Bec White has resigned, but if I was him I wouldn't touch the leadership with a barge pole.
As a senior Labor identity told me over the election weekend, they haven't learnt from the year-long federal intervention.
As soon as the national executive handed back control to the State branch some weeks ago the factions have resumed their wars as usual.
To them, winning factional wars against each other is far more important than beating the Liberals. Don't take my word for it, just look at their actions.
I watched Bec White in the final debate against Jeremy Rockliff and she won easily. She is a class act, and now she's gone, thanks to the unelected, mad, faceless crowd.
Sure, it is her third failed attempt but there was a pathway forward for Labor and she could see it, but the mad crowd couldn't, or wouldn't.
In 1989 Michael Field won only 13 seats out of 35, with Labor's lowest vote since 1906, but he did a deal with the five Greens and as the Greens kept telling the Libs, 13 plus 5 equals 18 seats and a majority.
We are assuming Labor this time has won 10 seats and the Greens five.
That gives them 15 seats so they only need three more for a majority, which could easily have come from the Jacqui Lambie Network or from former Labor leader David O'Byrne or independent Kristie Johnston, with both likely to win a seat.
Jacqui Lambie, Johnston and O'Byrne have made it clear they don't like the Libs and even if they are neutral on that vein, they all wanted a change after almost 11 years of Liberal rule.
I think Bec White would have made a stunning Premier and would have given the electorate a good reason to favour Labor at the next election.
As it now stands Jeremy Rockliff will cobble together an albeit unstable alliance which may not last two years.
A Bec White minority government, with its focus on health and cost of living, and with an ally in Albo federally, would have lasted much longer.
The partners to this arrangement would have known it was in their best interests to ensure the Parliament lasted as long as possible.
Now I can see the Labor Party being out of government for another two terms because the Libs would have learned from their mistakes.
All the Libs need to do is properly fund health, stop ambulance ramping and pour funds into housing and generally steal the middle ground, and they will win more seats again next time if not a majority.
Now Labor's ultimate return to power is years away, thanks to their faceless and unelected administrative committee.
If I was the hard-working Labor volunteers and even the broader rank and file, I would rise up and tell the committee where to shove it.
The committee's actions were self-serving and purely political. They were fighting a war, but with each other and on another planet.
So I think there's a chance the unions will try and lure David O'Byrne back into the fold and take the leadership and if this happens it will further alienate the rank and file as the party descends into a third rate banana republic, ruled by a junta.
The party is now ruled by a junta already, who have decidedly usurped the role and powers of the Caucus and its leadership and made the Caucus mere puppets in Parliament.
You will find politics in Tasmania mirroring mainland states.
In Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia Labor lasted for years in Government, even though they deserved to lose office, because the conservative parties were hopelessly divided and incompetent.
For much the same reason the Libs here could last at least 16 years in power because the Labor opposition has rendered itself unelectable.
And the Libs won't be standing still. If they switch to the Paul Lennon stadium 2.0, back the AFL team, keep their promises and focus on cost of living across all portfolios they will be highly competitive next time.
They will be where Bec White could have been, if the Labor's administrative committee had simply remembered its role.
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