It seems unlikely the Gaza conflict could lead to violence in Australia instigated by Hamas, Hezbollah, or Mossad - as none of them would see value in conducting attacks in Australia.
Similarly, the Middle East strategic competition between the various major competing parties: Saudi Arabia, Iran/Iraq, Turkey, Russia/Syria, US/Israel seems unlikely to involve the Asia-Pacific region. One exception being that Israeli-owned ships are now banned from docking in Malaysia.
Both Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah are primarily nationalist organisations that use terrorism to try to achieve their nationalist ends. They differ from Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, which have a messianic aim of achieving a global Islamic caliphate and the elimination of other religious groups, including Shia Muslims. Hamas and Hezbollah dream of eliminating Israel but are realistic enough to know that's not achievable.
In simple terms, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again been brought about by Palestinian frustration over the lack of political progress since the 1993-1995 Oslo Accords - in particular on the status of Jerusalem, right of return of Palestinian refugees, and stopping Israeli settlement building in the West Bank. None of the three rounds of talks since 1995 has satisfied the demands of both parties.
At the same time, Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups have regularly mounted rocket attacks on Israel to underline their grievances. The unprecedented October 7 Hamas-led terrorist attack seems intended to focus global attention on the lack of political progress, and to derail Israel's attempt to build a closer relationship with Saudi Arabia and its Arab neighbours - and sideline the Palestinians.
On October 8, to show solidarity with Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a small-scale attack on Israel's northern border. Since then, there have been regular militant strikes across the border, mainly with rockets and missiles. The exchanges have been costly for Hezbollah and other Lebanese militant groups, with 233 fighters killed - compared to 12 Israel Defence Forces deaths, three of whom were non-battle casualties. The Houthis in Yemen have also shown solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza by attacking shipping bound for Israel, which in turn has had repercussions for international maritime trade.
The massive scale of Israel's retaliation in Gaza has shocked the Muslim world and Muslim populations in Western countries. It is not clear whether Israel is now trying to broaden the conflict by killing a senior Hamas figure in Beirut, an Iranian adviser in Syria, and stepping up its attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, but Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu would probably like nothing better than to see a broader conflict, with the US hammering Iran.
Despite their support for Hamas, Hezbollah clearly does not want to be embroiled in a more substantial conflict with Israel, and Iran does not want a conflict with the US.
The Australian government seems oblivious to the scale of pro-Palestinian support in Australia, which could cost them dearly at the ballot box. While it seems unlikely any of the protagonists in the Middle East would want to promote terrorism in Australia, there is the possibility of persons sympathetic to the Palestinian or Israeli causes acting unilaterally.
While Al-Qaeda and Islamic State are not the influence they once were on young Australian Muslims, the Gaza conflict has re-energised both groups and they still have the capability to cause problems here.
Meanwhile, some members of the extreme right are capable of mounting the kind of attack in Australia perpetrated by Anders Breivik in Norway in 2011 and Australian Brenton Tarrant in New Zealand in 2019.
Australian expats will continue to be potential targets in Indonesia and Africa. Indonesia has an ongoing terrorism problem with unreformed discharged terrorists, indoctrinated young Muslims, and disaffected small groups and individuals (142 terrorist suspects were detained there in 2023). Of the 166 Australian civilians who have died overseas in terrorist attacks, 95 have died in Indonesia.
Africa is a problem area because of the resurgence of Islamic State and the number of very violent local extremist groups with their own agendas. Many Australians work in the mining and oil industries in Africa and are vulnerable to kidnap for ransom. (The Australian government does not know how many Australians are working in Africa because they keep a low profile to avoid paying Australian tax.)
Random acts of mass violence in Australia by mentally unbalanced individuals - while not terrorism in the sense they are not trying to achieve a strategic outcome - will continue to be a security concern, mainly for Australian police forces who have to deal daily with violent persons who in the past would have been institutionalised.
The most likely means of terrorist attack will continue to be knives and vehicles, but bombings and shooter attacks could also occur. Moreover, the increasing military and insurgent use of attack drones could provide new terrorist attack options and make it easier for terrorists to overcome security protection for crowded places and VIPs.
The unlikelihood of Australian terrorist attacks doesn't negate danger
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08.01.2024
It seems unlikely the Gaza conflict could lead to violence in Australia instigated by Hamas, Hezbollah, or Mossad - as none of them would see value in conducting attacks in Australia.
Similarly, the Middle East strategic competition between the various major competing parties: Saudi Arabia, Iran/Iraq, Turkey, Russia/Syria, US/Israel seems unlikely to involve the Asia-Pacific region. One exception being that Israeli-owned ships are now banned from docking in Malaysia.
Both Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah are primarily nationalist organisations that use terrorism to try to achieve their nationalist ends. They differ from Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, which have a messianic aim of achieving a global Islamic caliphate and the elimination of other religious groups, including Shia Muslims. Hamas and Hezbollah dream of eliminating Israel but are realistic enough to know that's not achievable.
In simple terms, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again been brought about by Palestinian frustration over the lack of political progress since the 1993-1995 Oslo Accords - in particular on the status of Jerusalem, right of return of Palestinian refugees, and stopping Israeli settlement building in the West Bank. None of the three rounds of talks since 1995 has satisfied the demands of both........
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