An election without real choices is a lot like a marriage without love. At least with arranged marriages you can fall in love eventually. But with a government you didn’t elect, can you really ever fall in love? A marriage without love is setting the foundation for an unstable relationship that will eventually collapse under its own weight. Similarly, an election without real choices is an expensive farce that won’t create a stable relationship between the ruled and the rulers. And political stability is a precondition for economic growth in Pakistan.
The tables have turned and the level playing field has been bulldozed into an Indian batting track the boys can play their shots on with the front foot. He who must not be named won’t even appear on the ballot box. But can his party still throw a party on election day? The possibility of this is real as is evident by the fear of those who level playing fields. What kind of outcomes can we expect from an election without real choices?
A low voter turnout and fearful/indifferent electorate is what the calculators are calculating their best shot is. But he who must not be named isn’t throwing his name behind a boycott. Instead, he’s doubling down and counting on an election day tsunami to turn the tables. To his credit, despite eliminating tier 1 and tier 2 leadership, the ordinary party voter, worker and candidate isn’t backing down in the face of everything and the kitchen sink being thrown at them. The best case scenario is that the tsunami materialises and electoral results reflect public sentiments as closely as possible.
What if that doesn’t happen? What if an indifferent electorate sends a whole bunch of parties into parliaments and they cook up a PDM style marriage of convenience? That’s the likely scenario everyone is working with and could result in a weak majority for the PML-N or a coalition government. What’s the point of winning, if you’ve shot the legs of your competitor? I guess winning is winning for some. But governing is another story altogether.
A government coming into power with a compromise mandate can’t really make real choices and push for reform. They can take cosmetic measures but the anger under the electoral surface will continue to bubble and we can expect another election in two years. What’s the point of all this? So that the powers that be can remain the powers that be.
How did we get here? Was the original sin May 9th or the VONC or the 2018 elections or somewhere in the late 1950s? That depends on who you ask and that’s the problem. We are so intensely polarised that we can’t even answer the basic questions that will begin to heal the political fabric of our country. While the actual state of play for the next 12 months is unclear, the best case scenario is absolutely crystal clear. That there are free and fair elections in the country that are violence free and the winner’s mandate is accepted by all parties. Is that too much to ask? If you’re born Pakistani, the answer apparently, is yes. That’s too much to ask.
Will there be a truth and reconciliation commission after the elections to make peace? Will everyone kiss and move on? Or will there be more confrontation? No one really knows at this point but all key players in this chess game, along with the people of Pakistan, will lose. And the enemies of Pakistan will benefit from our continued instability. The only narrow window of a peaceful transfer of power and path forward is if there is a convincing — not a divided — mandate coming out of the elections. Once again, it is up to the people of Pakistan to save the state and the future of Pakistan.
The powers that be know this and will make every effort to frustrate the ability of the election process to deliver a decisive mandate. But even a dam built to prevent a flood can’t do much in the face of a tsunami. The real question is whether the people of Pakistan are ready to channel their tsunami through the ballot box or they will have to deliver it in the streets on the morning after the elections.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 7th, 2024.
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A marriage without love
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07.01.2024
An election without real choices is a lot like a marriage without love. At least with arranged marriages you can fall in love eventually. But with a government you didn’t elect, can you really ever fall in love? A marriage without love is setting the foundation for an unstable relationship that will eventually collapse under its own weight. Similarly, an election without real choices is an expensive farce that won’t create a stable relationship between the ruled and the rulers. And political stability is a precondition for economic growth in Pakistan.
The tables have turned and the level playing field has been bulldozed into an Indian batting track the boys can play their shots on with the front foot. He who must not be named won’t even appear on the ballot box. But can his party still throw a party on election day? The possibility of this is real as is evident by the fear of those who level playing fields. What kind of outcomes can we expect from an election without real choices?
A low voter turnout and fearful/indifferent electorate is what the calculators........
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