The temperatures are rising not only atmospherically but also politically. It is now confirmed that the year 2023 was the warmest year on record since 1850, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The 2023 temperatures were 1.18°C higher than the pre-industrial levels, and many scientists are predicting that 2024 could be even worse.
Against this backdrop of rising temperatures, the moot questions for us in India are: Will Indian agriculture be able to feed our growing population in the medium to long run, and will our farmers also be prosperous in Viksit Bharat@2047, an aspirational slogan given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his ongoing election campaign?
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Although 2047 is still 23 years away, and it is very difficult to make such long-term projections, a rough idea of this can be obtained by looking at what happened since reforms began in 1991 and continued, in one way or the other, under various governments. But more interesting would be to see the growth story in the last 10 years under the Modi government and compare it with the preceding 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government. Given that the incumbent government feels very confident to come back with a thumping majority, it is likely to continue its policies of the past 10 years, or may even accelerate them to realise its aspiration of Viksit Bharat@2047.
Also Read Fifth column by Tavleen Singh: Surreal reality and reality Across the aisle by P Chidambaram: The final assault on Constitution Happiness in India: India’s economic growth over time does not show up in improved happiness score and ranking The giant has arrived: India’s rise as a global power creates a tightrope of domestic and international aspects The accompanying graphic shows the average annual growth rates (AAGRs) of overall GDP and agri-GDP (2011-12 base, revised series). While the long-term growth rate from 1991-92 to 2023-24 (second advance estimate) of overall GDP is 6.1%, for agri-GDP it is 3.3%. However, during the 10 years of the Modi government, overall GDP has grown only by 5.9% (compared to 6.8% during Singh’s period) and agriculture growth has been 3.6% (compared to 3.5% during Singh’s tenure). There is not much of a difference between the two governments with respect to agri-GDP growth.
Agriculture is critical for India’s development as it still engages about 45.8% of working population (2022-23, PLFS data). So, if Viksit Bharat has to be inclusive Bharat, it must develop agriculture to its full potential. The productivity needs to rise, water consumption needs to reduce, groundwater needs to be recharged, soil degradation needs to be arrested, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture need to be curtailed. Business as usual, with the current set of policies, is not likely to deliver this dream of inclusive Viksit Bharat by 2047.
What we know today is that agriculture contributes roughly 18% to overall GDP but engages 45.8% of the workforce. If our growth rates of overall GDP and agri-GDP keep rising as they have during the last 20 years, or even the last 10 years, it is likely that by 2047, agriculture’s share in overall GDP may drop to just 7-8% but it may still be saddled with more than 30% of the workforce. More people need to move out of agriculture to higher productivity jobs with better skills. Therefore, skill formation of rural people for a rapidly growing and urbanising India has to be a priority. Else, I am afraid, Viksit Bharat will be viksit only for the top 25% of the population, while the rest may remain stuck in the low-medium income category.
The expected overall GDP growth of 7.6% in 2023-24 is a good foundation to build on. Both the ministry of finance and the RBI feel upbeat, and expect the final numbers of this year to even be higher. It is good news and many economists feel that this can be maintained for the long run. But how many of us have noted that the agri-GDP growth rate of 2023-24 is a pitiably low level of just 0.7% (second advance estimate)? Do we want a situation where the economic conditions of the masses improve at less than 1% while overall GDP grows at 7.6%? The answer is obviously no.
Remember that agriculture growth dropped to this low level (0.7%) primarily because of unseasonal rains during the last kharif season. And there are no positive signals that the situation will improve. If there are any signals, the risks of extreme weather events are going to increase, as humanity is falling far behind in controlling global warming. Is India in general, and agriculture in particular, ready for that? Not really.
Indian agriculture in Viksit Bharat cannot be on a weak and risky wicket. Two years of successive droughts can spoil the party of Viksit Bharat. Even without a drought, the RBI has been fighting almost this entire year to control food inflation. The Centre has put export controls, stocking limits on traders, suspended futures trading in many agri-commodities, and unloaded wheat and rice at prices below their economic costs. These are all signs of panic, and policy tools of 1960s, when India was living from ‘ship to mouth’. This policy toolbox cannot be carried on in Viksit Bharat.
So, what should be the agenda for agriculture in Viksit Bharat? We must rationalise food and fertiliser subsidies, and use the savings to augment agri-R&D, agri-innovation and agri-extension, recharge soil and water through check dams and watersheds, and promote water saving techniques in agriculture (drip and sprinklers, fertigation, protected cultivation, etc.). More importantly, India must move to high-value agriculture (poultry, fishery, dairy, fruits and vegetables) with a value chain approach, from plate to plough—a demand-driven system. For that we need to think of policies and institutions through which our farmers can access pan-India markets, and even export markets on a regular basis, be it through cooperatives or farmer producer organisation (FPOs) on digital commerce platforms (like eNAM or ONDC) or though contract farming with large processors, retailers, and exporters. We should also not forget to step off the brakes on futures trading. The price messenger can’t be shot down in Viksit Bharat.
Ashok Gulati, Distinguished professor, ICRIER
Views are personal
The temperatures are rising not only atmospherically but also politically. It is now confirmed that the year 2023 was the warmest year on record since 1850, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The 2023 temperatures were 1.18°C higher than the pre-industrial levels, and many scientists are predicting that 2024 could be even worse.
Against this backdrop of rising temperatures, the moot questions for us in India are: Will Indian agriculture be able to feed our growing population in the medium to long run, and will our farmers also be prosperous in Viksit Bharat@2047, an aspirational slogan given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his ongoing election campaign?
Although 2047 is still 23 years away, and it is very difficult to make such long-term projections, a rough idea of this can be obtained by looking at what happened since reforms began in 1991 and continued, in one way or the other, under various governments. But more interesting would be to see the growth story in the last 10 years under the Modi government and compare it with the preceding 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government. Given that the incumbent government feels very confident to come back with a thumping majority, it is likely to continue its policies of the past 10 years, or may even accelerate them to realise its aspiration of Viksit Bharat@2047.
The accompanying graphic shows the average annual growth rates (AAGRs) of overall GDP and agri-GDP (2011-12 base, revised series). While the long-term growth rate from 1991-92 to 2023-24 (second advance estimate) of overall GDP is 6.1%, for agri-GDP it is 3.3%. However, during the 10 years of the Modi government, overall GDP has grown only by 5.9% (compared to 6.8% during Singh’s period) and agriculture growth has been 3.6% (compared to 3.5% during Singh’s tenure). There is not much of a difference between the two governments with respect to agri-GDP growth.
Agriculture is critical for India’s development as it still engages about 45.8% of working population (2022-23, PLFS data). So, if Viksit Bharat has to be inclusive Bharat, it must develop agriculture to its full potential. The productivity needs to rise, water consumption needs to reduce, groundwater needs to be recharged, soil degradation needs to be arrested, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture need to be curtailed. Business as usual, with the current set of policies, is not likely to deliver this dream of inclusive Viksit Bharat by 2047.
What we know today is that agriculture contributes roughly 18% to overall GDP but engages 45.8% of the workforce. If our growth rates of overall GDP and agri-GDP keep rising as they have during the last 20 years, or even the last 10 years, it is likely that by 2047, agriculture’s share in overall GDP may drop to just 7-8% but it may still be saddled with more than 30% of the workforce. More people need to move out of agriculture to higher productivity jobs with better skills. Therefore, skill formation of rural people for a rapidly growing and urbanising India has to be a priority. Else, I am afraid, Viksit Bharat will be viksit only for the top 25% of the population, while the rest may remain stuck in the low-medium income category.
The expected overall GDP growth of 7.6% in 2023-24 is a good foundation to build on. Both the ministry of finance and the RBI feel upbeat, and expect the final numbers of this year to even be higher. It is good news and many economists feel that this can be maintained for the long run. But how many of us have noted that the agri-GDP growth rate of 2023-24 is a pitiably low level of just 0.7% (second advance estimate)? Do we want a situation where the economic conditions of the masses improve at less than 1% while overall GDP grows at 7.6%? The answer is obviously no.
Remember that agriculture growth dropped to this low level (0.7%) primarily because of unseasonal rains during the last kharif season. And there are no positive signals that the situation will improve. If there are any signals, the risks of extreme weather events are going to increase, as humanity is falling far behind in controlling global warming. Is India in general, and agriculture in particular, ready for that? Not really.
Indian agriculture in Viksit Bharat cannot be on a weak and risky wicket. Two years of successive droughts can spoil the party of Viksit Bharat. Even without a drought, the RBI has been fighting almost this entire year to control food inflation. The Centre has put export controls, stocking limits on traders, suspended futures trading in many agri-commodities, and unloaded wheat and rice at prices below their economic costs. These are all signs of panic, and policy tools of 1960s, when India was living from ‘ship to mouth’. This policy toolbox cannot be carried on in Viksit Bharat.
So, what should be the agenda for agriculture in Viksit Bharat? We must rationalise food and fertiliser subsidies, and use the savings to augment agri-R&D, agri-innovation and agri-extension, recharge soil and water through check dams and watersheds, and promote water saving techniques in agriculture (drip and sprinklers, fertigation, protected cultivation, etc.). More importantly, India must move to high-value agriculture (poultry, fishery, dairy, fruits and vegetables) with a value chain approach, from plate to plough—a demand-driven system. For that we need to think of policies and institutions through which our farmers can access pan-India markets, and even export markets on a regular basis, be it through cooperatives or farmer producer organisation (FPOs) on digital commerce platforms (like eNAM or ONDC) or though contract farming with large processors, retailers, and exporters. We should also not forget to step off the brakes on futures trading. The price messenger can’t be shot down in Viksit Bharat.
Ashok Gulati, Distinguished professor, ICRIER
Views are personal
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