The BJP is conscious that much brainstorming is needed to work out the strategy for the 2024 elections, especially in light of fresh challenges thrown up by the Opposition in the last six months. The demand for an all-India caste census, the agitation in Maharashtra to include Marathas as OBCs (which could lead to a domino effect among other landowning cultivator castes like Jats, Patels and Kapus) and the Opposition’s lavish promises of freebies (revdi culture) need to be handled carefully. The Hindutva card, strengthened by the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the new Ram Mandir may not be enough to counter these movements. As the general elections approach, the government is interacting more frequently with the RSS. This month, party president J P Nadda, Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh met the top five RSS functionaries, other than Mohan Bhagwat. Another meeting was organised in Delhi between ministers holding important economic portfolios and those in charge of RSS-affiliate organisations like the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh and Bharatiya Kisan Sangh.
INDIA’s flaw
Leading poll strategist Prashant Kishor has astutely pinpointed a flaw in the INDIA bloc’s strategy for 2024. Rahul Gandhi is focusing on capturing the 30% (plus) vote share Narendra Modi normally wins, rather than concentrating on the more than equal number of votes that Modi did not get in the 2014 and 2019 polls.
In fact, the index of Opposition unity for consolidating the anti-Modi vote has decreased after INDIA’s formation. In the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, Opposition divisions are more pronounced. In UP, Akhilesh Yadav has hit out at the Congress for humiliating his party and completely ignoring the SP’s claims. In retaliation, Yadav announced unilaterally that the SP would fight 65 of 80 parliamentary seats in the state. The Left parties, used to playing second fiddle to the Congress, are contesting the Assembly elections on their own. Also ominous is the formation of two new Opposition combinations. Mayawati’s BSP has tied up with the Gondwana Gantantra Party in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party has aligned with Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP, which banks on Jat and farmer votes, in Rajasthan.
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On Monday, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde came to Yavatmal in Vidarbha to preside over the ‘government at your doorstep’ programme. To his shock, he discovered that neither of his two deputies had shown up. Ajit Pawar said he was down with dengue, while Devendra Fadnavis was campaigning in Chhattisgarh. Shinde suspected that his unreliable allies, BJP and NCP (Ajit), were trying to foist the entire burden of resolving the mounting crisis in the state over reservations for Marathas on him. The state is a tinderbox that could explode any moment, particularly with unknown activist Manoj Jarange Patil announcing a fast unto death. Shinde, however, proved his detractors wrong by taking on the challenge singlehandedly and averting an imminent showdown. Three of Shinde’s Maratha MLAs, who are in any case under notice for disqualification, offered to resign for the Maratha cause and more would have followed suit. To appease Jarange Patil, Shinde called an all-party meeting on the reservation issue. He pointedly did not invite Uddhav Thackeray, but such is the emotive appeal of the cause that Thackeray’s two lieutenants, Ambadas Danve and Anil Parab, could not afford to stay away from the meet because it would have sent the wrong signal. Jarange Patil has suspended his agitation temporarily.
Gandhi’s poll star
Congress poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu is riding high and has been given credit for the party’s recent successful campaigns — from Bharat Jodo campaign to Karnataka Assembly elections. Kanugolu seems to be the current Rahul Gandhi favourite and the Congress leader’s aides,
Randeep Surjewala and K C Venugopal, find their noses slightly out of joint. Kanugolu, on the strength of his poll surveys, often gets to decide the Congress candidate for a particular constituency.
A professional who hails from Karnataka, Kanugolu has worked for many political parties. He was the survey in charge of Kishor’s Citizens for Accountable Governance in the 2014 elections. Kanugolu has worked for both the DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and was associated with Amit Shah in the Association of Billion Minds, which handled many successful BJP campaigns. He has even advised the Akalis.
In the present five-state Assembly polls, Kanugolu is focusing largely on Telangana. A win for the Congress from this state would be a feather in his cap, since the leaderless state Congress was trailing in third place, behind the BJP, till two years ago. In the Karnataka campaign, Kanugolu coined catchy slogans against former BJP CM Basavaraj Bommai, dubbing him and his government as “Pay CM’’ and “40% sarkar” respectively. In the 2024 parliamentary polls, he has reportedly suggested that the theme slogan should be “Go Modi Go”.
The BJP is conscious that much brainstorming is needed to work out the strategy for the 2024 elections, especially in light of fresh challenges thrown up by the Opposition in the last six months. The demand for an all-India caste census, the agitation in Maharashtra to include Marathas as OBCs (which could lead to a domino effect among other landowning cultivator castes like Jats, Patels and Kapus) and the Opposition’s lavish promises of freebies (revdi culture) need to be handled carefully. The Hindutva card, strengthened by the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the new Ram Mandir may not be enough to counter these movements. As the general elections approach, the government is interacting more frequently with the RSS. This month, party president J P Nadda, Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh met the top five RSS functionaries, other than Mohan Bhagwat. Another meeting was organised in Delhi between ministers holding important economic portfolios and those in charge of RSS-affiliate organisations like the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh and Bharatiya Kisan Sangh.
Leading poll strategist Prashant Kishor has astutely pinpointed a flaw in the INDIA bloc’s strategy for 2024. Rahul Gandhi is focusing on capturing the 30% (plus) vote share Narendra Modi normally wins, rather than concentrating on the more than equal number of votes that Modi did not get in the 2014 and 2019 polls.
In fact, the index of Opposition unity for consolidating the anti-Modi vote has decreased after INDIA’s formation. In the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, Opposition divisions are more pronounced. In UP, Akhilesh Yadav has hit out at the Congress for humiliating his party and completely ignoring the SP’s claims. In retaliation, Yadav announced unilaterally that the SP would fight 65 of 80 parliamentary seats in the state. The Left parties, used to playing second fiddle to the Congress, are contesting the Assembly elections on their own. Also ominous is the formation of two new Opposition combinations. Mayawati’s BSP has tied up with the Gondwana Gantantra Party in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party has aligned with Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP, which banks on Jat and farmer votes, in Rajasthan.
On Monday, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde came to Yavatmal in Vidarbha to preside over the ‘government at your doorstep’ programme. To his shock, he discovered that neither of his two deputies had shown up. Ajit Pawar said he was down with dengue, while Devendra Fadnavis was campaigning in Chhattisgarh. Shinde suspected that his unreliable allies, BJP and NCP (Ajit), were trying to foist the entire burden of resolving the mounting crisis in the state over reservations for Marathas on him. The state is a tinderbox that could explode any moment, particularly with unknown activist Manoj Jarange Patil announcing a fast unto death. Shinde, however, proved his detractors wrong by taking on the challenge singlehandedly and averting an imminent showdown. Three of Shinde’s Maratha MLAs, who are in any case under notice for disqualification, offered to resign for the Maratha cause and more would have followed suit. To appease Jarange Patil, Shinde called an all-party meeting on the reservation issue. He pointedly did not invite Uddhav Thackeray, but such is the emotive appeal of the cause that Thackeray’s two lieutenants, Ambadas Danve and Anil Parab, could not afford to stay away from the meet because it would have sent the wrong signal. Jarange Patil has suspended his agitation temporarily.
Congress poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu is riding high and has been given credit for the party’s recent successful campaigns — from Bharat Jodo campaign to Karnataka Assembly elections. Kanugolu seems to be the current Rahul Gandhi favourite and the Congress leader’s aides,
Randeep Surjewala and K C Venugopal, find their noses slightly out of joint. Kanugolu, on the strength of his poll surveys, often gets to decide the Congress candidate for a particular constituency.
A professional who hails from Karnataka, Kanugolu has worked for many political parties. He was the survey in charge of Kishor’s Citizens for Accountable Governance in the 2014 elections. Kanugolu has worked for both the DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and was associated with Amit Shah in the Association of Billion Minds, which handled many successful BJP campaigns. He has even advised the Akalis.
In the present five-state Assembly polls, Kanugolu is focusing largely on Telangana. A win for the Congress from this state would be a feather in his cap, since the leaderless state Congress was trailing in third place, behind the BJP, till two years ago. In the Karnataka campaign, Kanugolu coined catchy slogans against former BJP CM Basavaraj Bommai, dubbing him and his government as “Pay CM’’ and “40% sarkar” respectively. In the 2024 parliamentary polls, he has reportedly suggested that the theme slogan should be “Go Modi Go”.
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