By Ashok Gulati, Ritika Juneja, & Purvi Thangaraj
As the election campaign in India is hitting a high pitch despite rising temperatures, most of our pollsters are predicting a continuation of the incumbent government as Modi 3.0. The differences are more on the number of seats that the BJP and its allies will win. Interestingly, the Modi government has already asked various ministries to prepare plans that they would like to announce in the first 100 days of their third term. The ministries are contacting various experts to help them create the right policy framework that is suitable not just for the next five years but that is in sync with the vision of Viksit Bharat@2047.As part of this exercise, here are some of our suggestions for the agri-food space.
SUNDAY AGRI
First, we need to see this as a food systems transformation (see graphic). Agriculture has to produce not only more food, fibre and even fuel (biofuels) but it has to produce them with lesser resources. India’s population is likely to go to about 1.6 billion by 2047. So, there will be more mouths to feed. With gradually rising incomes they will demand more and better food. Efficiency in the use of land, water, labour, and inputs like fertilisers and farm machinery is going to be critical. In other words, we must aim to raise our total factor productivity. It can be done only by putting in more resources in agri-R&D, innovations and extension.Second, the production system is being threatened by extreme weather events triggered by global warming. The last April to March temperature has already hit the Laxman Rekha of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
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Last year’s El Niño effect in India made its agri-GDP drop from 4.7% in 2022-23 to just 0.7% in 2023-24 (second advance estimate). This is high risk, which then triggers knee-jerk reactions to ban exports, put stocking limits on traders, and unloading government stocks at below their economic costs with a view to contain food inflation. The real solution lies in investing resources to create climate-resilient (smart) agriculture. This would mean more investments in seeds that are heat- and flood-resistant, more investment in water resources, not just in augmenting their supplies but also ensuring water is being used more wisely. ‘More crop per drop’ should not be just a slogan but a reality. Drips, sprinklers, and protected cultivation as part of the precision agriculture will have to be adopted at much larger scale than is the case today. Given that almost 78% of India’s fresh water is used for agriculture, we must learn to use every drop of water wisely, else cities will starve for water. Bengaluru’s water crisis is just a trailer. More is to come.
Third, we must realise that by 2047 more than two-thirds of India will be living in urban areas, up from about 36% today. Migration from rural to urban areas in search of higher productivity jobs is a natural process that cannot, and should not, be wished away. The implication of this is that much of the food will have to be moved from hinterlands to urban areas. This would require a massive logistics revolution, from transporting to stocking to processing and organised retailing. And this would open doors for large-scale investments, primarily by the private sector. The Modi 3.0 government will have to facilitate this transformation by changing laws that are suitable for Bharat@2047. Many of our laws are still those that we inherited from British India in 1947. A fresh set of rules that are more market-aligned would be the need of hour to build efficient value chains. Else, we are afraid, our post-harvest losses will mount. Fourth, in this food systems transformation, while all players from seed industry to farm machinery to processing and retailing are scaling up, farming is still fragmenting to smaller and smaller holdings.
The challenge is to ensure that these small holders are brought together, through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) or cooperatives (as was done in milk sector, a la AMUL model), to create a scale that is demanded by processors, organised retailers, exporters. This institutional innovation is the key for inclusive Bharat.Fifth, on the consumption front, we need to move beyond simple food security to nutritional security. Our malnutrition numbers, especially for children below the age of 5, are horrifying. With stunting today at 35%, how would they make an efficient labour force for Bharat@2047? For this to improve, besides sanitation, women education and immunisation, we also need to fortify our staples with micro-nutrients.
The government has made a beginning with zinc-rich rice and wheat, but why is it shying away from Golden rice with beta carotene (Vitamin A-rich), when Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have declared it safe, and even Bangladesh and Philippines have allowed its trials. Rice is our first crop, and most of those children that are malnourished today do consume a lot of rice. This needs to be fortified with high nutrition. Sixth, all this cannot be done by the government. Public-private partnership is the way to go. The private sector can build efficient value chains, as also produce seeds that are climate resilient and more nutritious.
The government has to provide a conducive policy framework. When the government can devise PLI-type schemes for industry, why not for food systems transformation for tomorrow? Lastly, nothing much will move unless farmers’ incomes improve. For that, we need to “re-purpose” our subsidy regimes, be it fertilisers or food. A minimum of 25 to 30% of `4 trillion subsidy on food and fertilisers can be saved if we move from a price-subsidy approach to direct income transfers to beneficiaries. These savings can be ploughed back to food systems for higher resilience and better nutrition. Can Modi 3.0 do it? Only time will tell.
Ashok Gulati, Ritika Juneja, & Purvi Thangaraj, Respectively. Distinguished Professor, Fellow and Research Associate at ICRIER. Views are personal
By Ashok Gulati, Ritika Juneja, & Purvi Thangaraj
As the election campaign in India is hitting a high pitch despite rising temperatures, most of our pollsters are predicting a continuation of the incumbent government as Modi 3.0. The differences are more on the number of seats that the BJP and its allies will win. Interestingly, the Modi government has already asked various ministries to prepare plans that they would like to announce in the first 100 days of their third term. The ministries are contacting various experts to help them create the right policy framework that is suitable not just for the next five years but that is in sync with the vision of Viksit Bharat@2047.As part of this exercise, here are some of our suggestions for the agri-food space.
First, we need to see this as a food systems transformation (see graphic). Agriculture has to produce not only more food, fibre and even fuel (biofuels) but it has to produce them with lesser resources. India’s population is likely to go to about 1.6 billion by 2047. So, there will be more mouths to feed. With gradually rising incomes they will demand more and better food. Efficiency in the use of land, water, labour, and inputs like fertilisers and farm machinery is going to be critical. In other words, we must aim to raise our total factor productivity. It can be done only by putting in more resources in agri-R&D, innovations and extension.Second, the production system is being threatened by extreme weather events triggered by global warming. The last April to March temperature has already hit the Laxman Rekha of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
Last year’s El Niño effect in India made its agri-GDP drop from 4.7% in 2022-23 to just 0.7% in 2023-24 (second advance estimate). This is high risk, which then triggers knee-jerk reactions to ban exports, put stocking limits on traders, and unloading government stocks at below their economic costs with a view to contain food inflation. The real solution lies in investing resources to create climate-resilient (smart) agriculture. This would mean more investments in seeds that are heat- and flood-resistant, more investment in water resources, not just in augmenting their supplies but also ensuring water is being used more wisely. ‘More crop per drop’ should not be just a slogan but a reality. Drips, sprinklers, and protected cultivation as part of the precision agriculture will have to be adopted at much larger scale than is the case today. Given that almost 78% of India’s fresh water is used for agriculture, we must learn to use every drop of water wisely, else cities will starve for water. Bengaluru’s water crisis is just a trailer. More is to come.
Third, we must realise that by 2047 more than two-thirds of India will be living in urban areas, up from about 36% today. Migration from rural to urban areas in search of higher productivity jobs is a natural process that cannot, and should not, be wished away. The implication of this is that much of the food will have to be moved from hinterlands to urban areas. This would require a massive logistics revolution, from transporting to stocking to processing and organised retailing. And this would open doors for large-scale investments, primarily by the private sector. The Modi 3.0 government will have to facilitate this transformation by changing laws that are suitable for Bharat@2047. Many of our laws are still those that we inherited from British India in 1947. A fresh set of rules that are more market-aligned would be the need of hour to build efficient value chains. Else, we are afraid, our post-harvest losses will mount. Fourth, in this food systems transformation, while all players from seed industry to farm machinery to processing and retailing are scaling up, farming is still fragmenting to smaller and smaller holdings.
The challenge is to ensure that these small holders are brought together, through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) or cooperatives (as was done in milk sector, a la AMUL model), to create a scale that is demanded by processors, organised retailers, exporters. This institutional innovation is the key for inclusive Bharat.Fifth, on the consumption front, we need to move beyond simple food security to nutritional security. Our malnutrition numbers, especially for children below the age of 5, are horrifying. With stunting today at 35%, how would they make an efficient labour force for Bharat@2047? For this to improve, besides sanitation, women education and immunisation, we also need to fortify our staples with micro-nutrients.
The government has made a beginning with zinc-rich rice and wheat, but why is it shying away from Golden rice with beta carotene (Vitamin A-rich), when Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have declared it safe, and even Bangladesh and Philippines have allowed its trials. Rice is our first crop, and most of those children that are malnourished today do consume a lot of rice. This needs to be fortified with high nutrition. Sixth, all this cannot be done by the government. Public-private partnership is the way to go. The private sector can build efficient value chains, as also produce seeds that are climate resilient and more nutritious.
The government has to provide a conducive policy framework. When the government can devise PLI-type schemes for industry, why not for food systems transformation for tomorrow? Lastly, nothing much will move unless farmers’ incomes improve. For that, we need to “re-purpose” our subsidy regimes, be it fertilisers or food. A minimum of 25 to 30% of `4 trillion subsidy on food and fertilisers can be saved if we move from a price-subsidy approach to direct income transfers to beneficiaries. These savings can be ploughed back to food systems for higher resilience and better nutrition. Can Modi 3.0 do it? Only time will tell.
Ashok Gulati, Ritika Juneja, & Purvi Thangaraj, Respectively. Distinguished Professor, Fellow and Research Associate at ICRIER. Views are personal
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