By Dr Anu Sharma and Dr Aparaajita Pandey
Conflict within West Asia has been growing and a new set of events unfolded when the world saw Iran become a part of the Israel – Hamas conflict. Conflicts in this region of the world are seldom linear, unidimensional, or easy to decode. With a plethora of communities with varied identities competing with each other, meet a scramble for resources, and get mixed with a race towards political and economic superiority, on a backdrop of millennia of historical disputes; we get a region as enigmatic, difficult to decipher, and volatile as West Asia or the middle east.
Speculations are rife on the recent involvement of Iran in the ongoing Israel – Hamas conflict. Those with a dramatic flair have chosen to look at it as the beginning of what possibly would be the third world war. However, it would be more prudent to first examine the evidence that one has before prophesising another apocalypse.
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Since the beginning of the Israel- Hamas conflict, small skirmishes between groups aligned with Iran as well as groups aligned with Israel have taken place in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. This is not too surprising as most of the West Asian region has been quite vocal about their condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza.
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These small skirmishes saw an escalation over the weekend when Iran launched drone attacks and missiles against Israel. While this attack by Iran got all the attention, it is also important to note that this was the Iranian retaliation to the Israeli drone attack killing several IRGC military personnel that took place on April 01, 2024. This process of attack and retaliation has now led to the US, UK, Russia, China, the West Asian region, and the UN to take cognizance of the fact that this might escalate which would detrimentally impact the entire West Asian region.
These fears are not unfounded, there is precedence to an escalation of war in the region and more countries finding themselves involved in conflicts that they did not begin. However, there are indications that this conflict between Iran and Israel would not escalate. This is not just attributed to most nations advocating for a de-escalation between Iran and Israel but also because Israel would not want to involve itself in a two – front war, with Hamas and Iran.
This would be detrimental to the precarious situation of domestic politics within Israel. The US has been a constant support to Israel since its creation and has advised de-escalation. This is partially due to the fact that the US has no inclination to be embroiled in another war in West Asia. Middle- East and partially because of their domestic political situation. US President Joe Biden is swiftly losing favour in the country and the American voters would be harsh critics if the US was to find itself in the middle of another war.
The Iranian retaliatory action that took place earlier this week, was seen as one quite akin to the ones that have been seen from the Russian side that were launched on Ukraine. Israel stated that there were close to 360 missile attacks on Israel as well as drone attacks which was an attempt to overwhelm the Israeli Air Defence system. This also echoes the original attack by Hamas where Israel claimed that they were left defenceless as Hamas overwhelmed the Air defence system of the country.
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However, one can’t expect Israel to take the same actions against Iran that they took against Hamas. It was also being observed that Iran had shown no inclination to further escalate this attack. Iran had shown no inclination to become a part of another long-drawn-out war. While it is true that the Iranian government is being headed by leaders of a more authoritarian tilt, the citizens of the country have suffered at the hands of sanctions for a long time and do not wish to be a part of a war due to their weakening economy. However, some interesting recent developments have taken place where Iranian officials have issued a serious warning to Israel stating that their preparedness to deploy never-before-used weaponry in response to any potential Israeli retaliation following a recent drone and missile strike by Iran. Such a warming does not point towards de-escalation.
It remains to be seen what would happen next but it is clear that the world at large and the Middle Eastern region as well would benefit from an immediate de-escalation of this situation.
Authors are Assistant Professors at Defence and Strategic Studies at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
By Dr Anu Sharma and Dr Aparaajita Pandey
Conflict within West Asia has been growing and a new set of events unfolded when the world saw Iran become a part of the Israel – Hamas conflict. Conflicts in this region of the world are seldom linear, unidimensional, or easy to decode. With a plethora of communities with varied identities competing with each other, meet a scramble for resources, and get mixed with a race towards political and economic superiority, on a backdrop of millennia of historical disputes; we get a region as enigmatic, difficult to decipher, and volatile as West Asia or the middle east.
Speculations are rife on the recent involvement of Iran in the ongoing Israel – Hamas conflict. Those with a dramatic flair have chosen to look at it as the beginning of what possibly would be the third world war. However, it would be more prudent to first examine the evidence that one has before prophesising another apocalypse.
Since the beginning of the Israel- Hamas conflict, small skirmishes between groups aligned with Iran as well as groups aligned with Israel have taken place in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. This is not too surprising as most of the West Asian region has been quite vocal about their condemnation of Israel’s actions in Gaza.
These small skirmishes saw an escalation over the weekend when Iran launched drone attacks and missiles against Israel. While this attack by Iran got all the attention, it is also important to note that this was the Iranian retaliation to the Israeli drone attack killing several IRGC military personnel that took place on April 01, 2024. This process of attack and retaliation has now led to the US, UK, Russia, China, the West Asian region, and the UN to take cognizance of the fact that this might escalate which would detrimentally impact the entire West Asian region.
These fears are not unfounded, there is precedence to an escalation of war in the region and more countries finding themselves involved in conflicts that they did not begin. However, there are indications that this conflict between Iran and Israel would not escalate. This is not just attributed to most nations advocating for a de-escalation between Iran and Israel but also because Israel would not want to involve itself in a two – front war, with Hamas and Iran.
This would be detrimental to the precarious situation of domestic politics within Israel. The US has been a constant support to Israel since its creation and has advised de-escalation. This is partially due to the fact that the US has no inclination to be embroiled in another war in West Asia. Middle- East and partially because of their domestic political situation. US President Joe Biden is swiftly losing favour in the country and the American voters would be harsh critics if the US was to find itself in the middle of another war.
The Iranian retaliatory action that took place earlier this week, was seen as one quite akin to the ones that have been seen from the Russian side that were launched on Ukraine. Israel stated that there were close to 360 missile attacks on Israel as well as drone attacks which was an attempt to overwhelm the Israeli Air Defence system. This also echoes the original attack by Hamas where Israel claimed that they were left defenceless as Hamas overwhelmed the Air defence system of the country.
However, one can’t expect Israel to take the same actions against Iran that they took against Hamas. It was also being observed that Iran had shown no inclination to further escalate this attack. Iran had shown no inclination to become a part of another long-drawn-out war. While it is true that the Iranian government is being headed by leaders of a more authoritarian tilt, the citizens of the country have suffered at the hands of sanctions for a long time and do not wish to be a part of a war due to their weakening economy. However, some interesting recent developments have taken place where Iranian officials have issued a serious warning to Israel stating that their preparedness to deploy never-before-used weaponry in response to any potential Israeli retaliation following a recent drone and missile strike by Iran. Such a warming does not point towards de-escalation.
It remains to be seen what would happen next but it is clear that the world at large and the Middle Eastern region as well would benefit from an immediate de-escalation of this situation.
Authors are Assistant Professors at Defence and Strategic Studies at Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.
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