Prime Minister Narendra Modi regularly refers to himself in the third person rather than I or My.
There is a word for that habit: illeism. It may be a passing fancy, but it has established one fact: that Mr Modi is the government of India and Mr Modi alone is responsible for the good and the bad of the government. All others — ministers with the exception of Mr Amit Shah, party leaders, MPs, even chief ministers — have been reduced to inconsequential. The irony is that they seem to be happy to be inconsequential! Our appeals or criticisms have, therefore, to be addressed to the Hon’ble PM alone.
PM has coined a new slogan: Viksit Bharat or Developed India. In the long chain of slogans starting with Achhe Din Aane Waale Hain, I hope it is the last one. Many slogans have fallen by the wayside. Developed India is a goal that the PM has said we must reach by 2047. Whoever is in government between now and 2047, India will be a more developed country than what it is in 2024, just as India is a more developed country in 2024 than it was in 1947. The catch is the definition of Developed India.
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We must first fix the goalpost. It cannot be a moving goalpost. For ‘USD 5 trillion economy’, the original target year was 2023-24. Step by step it has been moved back to 2027-28. By the close of 2023-24, the size of India’s GDP will be Rs 172 lakh crore. That is equal to USD 3.57 trillion at the current exchange rate. If the exchange rate remains the same, at different growth rates the goal of USD 5 trillion will be attained in different years:
If the dollar:rupee exchange rate worsens, the goalpost must be moved further back.
The record of the BJP/NDA government in the last 10 years has been uninspiring. Against the UPA’s record of 6.7 per cent under the new series (it was 7.5 per cent under the old series), the NDA government has been able to register a growth rate of only 5.9 per cent over ten years.
Will the BJP be able to step on the gas and increase the growth rate? No one in the BJP can answer the question because the growth rate will depend on external factors as well as domestic management of the economy. Uncertainty apart, if Mr Modi is able to win a third term and the economy grows at 8 per cent a year, India’s GDP will barely reach USD 5 trillion in the fifth year of the third term.
What is ‘developed’?
Suppose India’s economy will reach the level of USD 5 trillion in 2028-29, can India be called a developed country? At USD 5 trillion and a population of 1.5 billion in 2028-29, the per capita income will be USD 3333. That will place India in the category of lower middle income economy. Based on per capita income, India’s current rank among the countries of the world is 140 (in nominal terms). In 2028-29, the rank may improve by 5-10 places.
This elaborate exercise is only to rubbish the obsession with self-glorifying descriptions such as ‘fastest growing economy’, ‘fifth largest economy in the world’ or ‘USD 5 trillion economy’. None of these appeal to me and should not to the Hon’ble PM as well.
Relevant questions
The questions that are relevant and that must be debated in the forthcoming elections are:
1. Multi-dimensional poverty is a blot on India and 22 crore people are below the poverty line. When will India wipe out the blot? According to UNDP, 27 crore people were lifted out of poverty during 2005-2015. When will 22 crore people be lifted out of poverty?
2. The current unemployment rate (8.7 per cent) has devastated millions of lives, caused the best qualified youth and the semi-skilled workers to migrate, and triggered a rise in crime. When will young people be gainfully employed? When will we wipe out the shame of post-graduates and Ph.Ds applying for the post of watchman and railway track maintainer (gangman)?
3. When will the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rise above 50 or 60 per cent? When will the female LFPR rise beyond 25 per cent?
4. When will private consumption of wage goods rise? When will the poor be able to afford to buy sufficient grain for their families?
5. When will the stagnation of wages in real terms end?
Unemployment and inflation are the two biggest concerns of the people. I cannot remember when the Hon’ble PM last spoke on the two burning issues. I cannot also remember when the Hon’ble PM last spoke on China; on Manipur; on political defections; on breaking political parties; on the right to privacy; on moral policing; or on bulldozer justice. Political parties must raise these issues again and again and force the Hon’ble PM to break his calculated silence on the issues that matter most to the people. As the only one who matters in the BJP, he must speak.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi regularly refers to himself in the third person rather than I or My.
There is a word for that habit: illeism. It may be a passing fancy, but it has established one fact: that Mr Modi is the government of India and Mr Modi alone is responsible for the good and the bad of the government. All others — ministers with the exception of Mr Amit Shah, party leaders, MPs, even chief ministers — have been reduced to inconsequential. The irony is that they seem to be happy to be inconsequential! Our appeals or criticisms have, therefore, to be addressed to the Hon’ble PM alone.
PM has coined a new slogan: Viksit Bharat or Developed India. In the long chain of slogans starting with Achhe Din Aane Waale Hain, I hope it is the last one. Many slogans have fallen by the wayside. Developed India is a goal that the PM has said we must reach by 2047. Whoever is in government between now and 2047, India will be a more developed country than what it is in 2024, just as India is a more developed country in 2024 than it was in 1947. The catch is the definition of Developed India.
We must first fix the goalpost. It cannot be a moving goalpost. For ‘USD 5 trillion economy’, the original target year was 2023-24. Step by step it has been moved back to 2027-28. By the close of 2023-24, the size of India’s GDP will be Rs 172 lakh crore. That is equal to USD 3.57 trillion at the current exchange rate. If the exchange rate remains the same, at different growth rates the goal of USD 5 trillion will be attained in different years:
If the dollar:rupee exchange rate worsens, the goalpost must be moved further back.
The record of the BJP/NDA government in the last 10 years has been uninspiring. Against the UPA’s record of 6.7 per cent under the new series (it was 7.5 per cent under the old series), the NDA government has been able to register a growth rate of only 5.9 per cent over ten years.
Will the BJP be able to step on the gas and increase the growth rate? No one in the BJP can answer the question because the growth rate will depend on external factors as well as domestic management of the economy. Uncertainty apart, if Mr Modi is able to win a third term and the economy grows at 8 per cent a year, India’s GDP will barely reach USD 5 trillion in the fifth year of the third term.
Suppose India’s economy will reach the level of USD 5 trillion in 2028-29, can India be called a developed country? At USD 5 trillion and a population of 1.5 billion in 2028-29, the per capita income will be USD 3333. That will place India in the category of lower middle income economy. Based on per capita income, India’s current rank among the countries of the world is 140 (in nominal terms). In 2028-29, the rank may improve by 5-10 places.
This elaborate exercise is only to rubbish the obsession with self-glorifying descriptions such as ‘fastest growing economy’, ‘fifth largest economy in the world’ or ‘USD 5 trillion economy’. None of these appeal to me and should not to the Hon’ble PM as well.
The questions that are relevant and that must be debated in the forthcoming elections are:
1. Multi-dimensional poverty is a blot on India and 22 crore people are below the poverty line. When will India wipe out the blot? According to UNDP, 27 crore people were lifted out of poverty during 2005-2015. When will 22 crore people be lifted out of poverty?
2. The current unemployment rate (8.7 per cent) has devastated millions of lives, caused the best qualified youth and the semi-skilled workers to migrate, and triggered a rise in crime. When will young people be gainfully employed? When will we wipe out the shame of post-graduates and Ph.Ds applying for the post of watchman and railway track maintainer (gangman)?
3. When will the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rise above 50 or 60 per cent? When will the female LFPR rise beyond 25 per cent?
4. When will private consumption of wage goods rise? When will the poor be able to afford to buy sufficient grain for their families?
5. When will the stagnation of wages in real terms end?
Unemployment and inflation are the two biggest concerns of the people. I cannot remember when the Hon’ble PM last spoke on the two burning issues. I cannot also remember when the Hon’ble PM last spoke on China; on Manipur; on political defections; on breaking political parties; on the right to privacy; on moral policing; or on bulldozer justice. Political parties must raise these issues again and again and force the Hon’ble PM to break his calculated silence on the issues that matter most to the people. As the only one who matters in the BJP, he must speak.
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