A favourable augury for India’s agricultural sector is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet’s forecasts of normal and above normal rains respectively this year. Normal means that rainfall over the southwest monsoon season from June to September is between 96 and 104% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. The IMD states that it would be 106%. Agriculture’s nominal share in the nation’s gross value added may have declined to 17.6% but 55 to 60% of its contribution to the economy emanates from rain-fed crop lands. More than a half of the country’s net cultivable area of 141.4 million hectares is un-irrigated and rain-dependent. More than three-fifths of India’s farmers cultivate crops without irrigation. While the prospect of copious rainfall is good news, these forecasts are not always accurate. Last year, the IMD predicted normal rainfall but it turned out to be below normal at 94% of the LPA. Normal or above normal rainfall refers to only the overall precipitation during the season and doesn’t indicate its spatial and temporal distribution which can be highly uneven.
The differences between Skymet and the IMD depend on the weightage they place on important variables that influence the monsoon like the El Niño factor — associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — which tends to weaken the southwest monsoon as it did last year. Due to the lingering “remnant impacts of the El Niño phenomenon”, the season may start with risk of impairment according to Skymet. The IMD, for its part, expects El Niño to further weaken during the early part of the season. Both are in agreement regarding the probability of La Niña conditions — associated with the cooling of sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean — developing in August and strengthening the southwest monsoon. The IMD also factors in positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions which are good for rainfall — warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean — developing during the second half of the season and Eurasian snow cover which has an inverse relation with the monsoon. For such reasons, the second half of the season is expected to be much better than the first.
However, the likelihood of impairment should warrant concern as it has a crucial bearing on crop output during the kharif or summer season as June and July are crucial months for sowing operations for crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean. That said, normal or above normal rainfall with a better spatial and temporal spread should translate into higher grains production. But if the rain gods are parsimonious, the spectre of drought and distress will haunt the countryside. The policy imperative must be to ensure that agriculture does not remain hostage to the vagaries of the southwest monsoon.
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The need is to build more irrigation facilities to reduce monsoon-dependence, especially for small and marginal farmers in peninsular India. This is perhaps less of a concern in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh which have access to canal irrigation. In fact, the share of irrigation in paddy-growing states like Punjab is as high as 99.7% but as low as 31.5% in Odisha. Above all, contingency plans must be in place if drought conditions occur in order to minimise distress among small and marginal farmers.
A favourable augury for India’s agricultural sector is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet’s forecasts of normal and above normal rains respectively this year. Normal means that rainfall over the southwest monsoon season from June to September is between 96 and 104% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. The IMD states that it would be 106%. Agriculture’s nominal share in the nation’s gross value added may have declined to 17.6% but 55 to 60% of its contribution to the economy emanates from rain-fed crop lands. More than a half of the country’s net cultivable area of 141.4 million hectares is un-irrigated and rain-dependent. More than three-fifths of India’s farmers cultivate crops without irrigation. While the prospect of copious rainfall is good news, these forecasts are not always accurate. Last year, the IMD predicted normal rainfall but it turned out to be below normal at 94% of the LPA. Normal or above normal rainfall refers to only the overall precipitation during the season and doesn’t indicate its spatial and temporal distribution which can be highly uneven.
The differences between Skymet and the IMD depend on the weightage they place on important variables that influence the monsoon like the El Niño factor — associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — which tends to weaken the southwest monsoon as it did last year. Due to the lingering “remnant impacts of the El Niño phenomenon”, the season may start with risk of impairment according to Skymet. The IMD, for its part, expects El Niño to further weaken during the early part of the season. Both are in agreement regarding the probability of La Niña conditions — associated with the cooling of sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean — developing in August and strengthening the southwest monsoon. The IMD also factors in positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions which are good for rainfall — warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean — developing during the second half of the season and Eurasian snow cover which has an inverse relation with the monsoon. For such reasons, the second half of the season is expected to be much better than the first.
However, the likelihood of impairment should warrant concern as it has a crucial bearing on crop output during the kharif or summer season as June and July are crucial months for sowing operations for crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean. That said, normal or above normal rainfall with a better spatial and temporal spread should translate into higher grains production. But if the rain gods are parsimonious, the spectre of drought and distress will haunt the countryside. The policy imperative must be to ensure that agriculture does not remain hostage to the vagaries of the southwest monsoon.
The need is to build more irrigation facilities to reduce monsoon-dependence, especially for small and marginal farmers in peninsular India. This is perhaps less of a concern in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh which have access to canal irrigation. In fact, the share of irrigation in paddy-growing states like Punjab is as high as 99.7% but as low as 31.5% in Odisha. Above all, contingency plans must be in place if drought conditions occur in order to minimise distress among small and marginal farmers.
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Glad tidings on rains
10
3
16.04.2024
A favourable augury for India’s agricultural sector is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet’s forecasts of normal and above normal rains respectively this year. Normal means that rainfall over the southwest monsoon season from June to September is between 96 and 104% of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. The IMD states that it would be 106%. Agriculture’s nominal share in the nation’s gross value added may have declined to 17.6% but 55 to 60% of its contribution to the economy emanates from rain-fed crop lands. More than a half of the country’s net cultivable area of 141.4 million hectares is un-irrigated and rain-dependent. More than three-fifths of India’s farmers cultivate crops without irrigation. While the prospect of copious rainfall is good news, these forecasts are not always accurate. Last year, the IMD predicted normal rainfall but it turned out to be below normal at 94% of the LPA. Normal or above normal rainfall refers to only the overall precipitation during the season and doesn’t indicate its spatial and temporal distribution which can be highly uneven.
The differences between Skymet and the IMD depend on the weightage they place on important variables that influence the monsoon like the El Niño factor — associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — which tends to weaken the southwest monsoon as it did last year. Due to the lingering “remnant impacts of the El Niño phenomenon”, the season may start with risk of impairment according to Skymet. The IMD, for its part, expects El Niño to further weaken during the early part of the season. Both are in agreement regarding the probability of La Niña conditions — associated with the cooling of sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean — developing in August and strengthening the southwest........
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