My grandmother, who survived World War II, always said that no one ever returned from war.
I understood the meaning of those words only after the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion when my city, my home, my friends and relatives — like me — found themselves under fire or went to defend our country from the enemy.
None of us will really be able to come back from this war. We may be in an endless limbo: Those who got through the occupation, saw Russia's war crimes and lost homes and loved ones. Those who were in battle and witnessed murder. Those who were captured and tortured.
The war will always be with us, no matter where we are or how much time passes. The roar of an airplane in the sky or even a motorcycle on the road is no longer about travel or fun, but the risk of missile and drone attacks or artillery shelling. For the rest of our lives, we will have a supply of technical water at home, an emergency suitcase and car tanks that will never be more than half empty. These are newly acquired reflexes.
The war took too much from us: More than 10,000 dead and 18,500 wounded among the civilian population. Almost $63 billion in infrastructure damage, and total economic losses of $543-600 billion. The worst thing is that those numbers, unfortunately, will continue to grow.
During two years of the big war, we have been talking a lot about what was needed for Ukraine to win, and very little about what would happen if Ukraine lost. And this is crucial.
What if we lose?
Russia would get access to all the resources of Ukraine, and the natural resources alone in our state are worth $14.8 trillion. All Ukrainian chernozem, and therefore agricultural products, would be in the hands of the aggressor. The threat to the world’s food security would become even greater as Russia would blackmail more and more.
After the occupation of the territories of Ukraine, Russia carries out mass passporting of the population, and these "new" citizens are forcibly mobilized. Then the Russian command uses them for "meat assaults" since their lives are worth even less than the lives of Russian soldiers. Unfortunately, in this way, the aggressor would increase their army and have even more means to punish NATO. Putin does not even hide his intentions regarding the Baltic countries.
But the worst thing for the world would be the idea that democracy is capable of losing to totalitarianism. Because it would turn out that all the efforts of NATO, combined with the bravery of Ukrainians, would not be enough to repel the dictator.
What if the war is frozen?
After French marshal Ferdinand Foch read the treaty on the surrender of Germany in World War I, he was credited for saying the legendary phrase: "This is not peace. This is a truce for 20 years." This is an illustration of how Russia would use the time of the frozen conflict.
Russia needs to restore its combat potential, weapons stockpile and projectile technology. Its allies on the axis of evil — North Korea and Iran — would be happy to help with this. They are already supplying the Kremlin with ammunition. During this time, Russia would also train new soldiers at a much higher quality, taking into account all the experience it had gained during two years of the full-scale war.
It is also so obvious that during a freeze Russia would seek to ease the sanction pressure. And to be honest, they may succeed. The Kremlin would use this opportunity to create even greater Western dependence on its resources, primarily oil and gas.
The assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and Putin's oligarchs, which we have been trying to confiscate and channel to Ukraine for two years, would be unfrozen. Those funds would quickly be hidden in other jurisdictions and made inaccessible even to the most impeccable legal mechanisms.
Russian propaganda would become more sophisticated for the West and the Global South, but as brutal as possible for the domestic consumer. After all, its task would be revanchism and the search for new enemies.
As with the defeat of Ukraine, there would be a new wave of refugees with a frozen conflict. Whether Europe and its economy would be able to cope with another 8 million people fleeing the war would be an open issue.
No one wants World War III, but avoiding it through fear of escalation is the wrong path. Dictatorships perceive any indecision as a weakness, and the weakness encourages them to commit more and more crimes. Putin was not punished for invading Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Then again, as there was not a strong enough response, he unleashed a full-scale war on Feb. 24, 2022.
The question is: Is he being punished enough this time?
Obviously not. According to new data from the International Monetary Fund, the Russian GDP will be up 2.6 percent in 2024, an increase from its October prediction of 1.1 percent. Such figures are a big slap in the face of the imposed sanctions as it means that the aggressor uses the imperfections of economic pressure mechanisms to successfully circumvent restrictions.
For the U.S. to walk away from the war at this crucial moment and cut off support to Ukraine would be an own goal of historic proportions, as CIA Director William Burns wrote. This is a mortal danger for all of Europe.
When war touches you personally, there is no turning back from it. But the world has a chance. Now the front line is in Ukraine, but what would happen if it was in Poland or the Baltic countries?
If the free world continues to delay supporting the Ukrainian army while using Ukraine for its own political and electoral ambitions, I have bad news. We are getting closer to the fact that it will not return from the limbo of war as well.
Kira Rudik is a member of Parliament in Ukraine and the leader of Golos party.
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