The certainty of misery is over. The feel-bad factor that dominated since the advent of Covid is receding and has been for some time. Covid built on the uncertainty of Brexit, which itself began when the wreckage of the economic crash was a recent memory. The invasion of Ukraine arriving as Covid diminished launched a cost-of-living crisis in a country that already had a housing crisis. The national mood is now lightening a little.
The Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index published this week posted the largest monthly gain in confidence in over three years. The sudden bounce is underscored by a slower but almost continuous rise since the end of 2022. It increased to 74.2 in January from 62.4 in December, and from 48.7 in December 2022. Historically, these are not euphoric highs. Christmas bliss can be discounted for several reasons. A seasonal switch-off from economic and political news always helps. This Christmas, falling energy prices, the threat of a grocery price war, and for those who tuned in, positive economic news buoyed sentiment.
That is relief for some but for others, especially in politics, it heralds the misery of uncertainty. Opinion polls featuring runners and riders in the next election have come hot on the heels of one another. In other news, polling shows that immigration has overtaken housing as the top issue on people’s minds. It’s topsy-turvy.
What is clear is that the certainties of 2023 – including the dominance of housing as an issue and the demand for change in the guise of Sinn Féin – are up for grabs. The issues preoccupying voters are changing and what to do about this is a matter for further reflection for some. How we see the world is moving too.
Something had unhinged during Covid. Even economic recovery, turbocharged with lavish state spending, didn’t sweeten things
Seasonal gains in confidence could easily disappear. It may be too soon for optimism, but after more than a decade of polycrisis – a term credited to Columbia scholar Adam Tooze, which suggests the world is faced with so many concurrent crises they are at risk of merging – and almost constant catastrophising, black clouds on the horizon may be moderating to grey skies.
Since the last general election, a stunningly good result of 24.5 per cent of the first preference vote for Sinn Féin that parlayed consistently into opinion poll numbers of 30 per cent and above coincided with a bleak national mood. Something had unhinged during Covid. Even economic recovery, turbocharged with lavish state spending, didn’t sweeten things and in that mood, a skilled political machine with a clear message of “change” succeeded. Sinn Féin’s aim of being in government after the next election began to look like a near certainty. Now things are not so sure.
[ Donaldson has pulled off a remarkable victory but it's too soon to abandon pessimism ]
This weekend, Sinn Féin is at a turning point. Until near its end, 2023 was a good year for the party. The Dublin riots on November 23rd catapulted new policy issues to the top of the agenda, and precipitated an almost instant reaction the next day from Sinn Féin’s leader Mary Lou McDonald. Her doorstep outside the Garden of Remembrance on Parnell Square was the moment the bubble burst. She went for the jugular of the Minister for Justice and the Garda Commissioner, when it would have better suited Sinn Féin to leave them sink of their own accord. For the first time since before the 2020 election, Sinn Féin seemed out of sync.
If immigration is now significantly more important and it is accepted that economically things are not as bad as feared, what is Sinn Féin’s future utility for those who didn’t vote for them in 2020 but were inclined to do so in opinion polls since? It is an open question.
What Sinn Féin will set out to do is highlight its credibility. In office in Northern Ireland, and thanks to the manner of government formation here, the main opposition party in the Dáil, being in government here is the logical next step
This weekend, the party heads towards a historic achievement that will be a lasting benchmark of change on this island and will be noted around the world. Michelle O’Neill will become First Minister of Northern Ireland. A generation ago Sinn Féin set out to be in government North and South. It was blessed in its opponents in both jurisdictions, and in the South, bad news economically served it well. But its progress is considerable.
[ Stormont now has no plausible excuse for failure. That doesn't mean failure is impossible ]
What matters now is how office in Northern Ireland affects its standing in the South. Will it renew momentum in the changed circumstances of 2024 after a blip at the end of 2023? Or will power make it look more like collusion with the establishment, instead of the change it promised to be? What Sinn Féin will set out to do is highlight its credibility. In office in Northern Ireland, and thanks to the manner of government formation here, the main opposition party in the Dáil, being in government here is the logical next step.
There are no signs yet that the abatement of misery is helping the government parties, except that any diminishment of Sinn Féin is an advantage in terms of government formation. The strategic failure and the tactical success of coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is exactly one and the same. They can now barely muster together levels of support each could once deliver on its own. But that might be enough. If voters are slipping free of fear, the political landscape might be redrawn. It is a new challenge for Sinn Féin as voters’ decisions switch from a binary choice to multiple choice based on a more complex, moving agenda.
It’s official: The national mood is lightening. The black clouds are turning grey
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02.02.2024
The certainty of misery is over. The feel-bad factor that dominated since the advent of Covid is receding and has been for some time. Covid built on the uncertainty of Brexit, which itself began when the wreckage of the economic crash was a recent memory. The invasion of Ukraine arriving as Covid diminished launched a cost-of-living crisis in a country that already had a housing crisis. The national mood is now lightening a little.
The Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Index published this week posted the largest monthly gain in confidence in over three years. The sudden bounce is underscored by a slower but almost continuous rise since the end of 2022. It increased to 74.2 in January from 62.4 in December, and from 48.7 in December 2022. Historically, these are not euphoric highs. Christmas bliss can be discounted for several reasons. A seasonal switch-off from economic and political news always helps. This Christmas, falling energy prices, the threat of a grocery price war, and for those who tuned in, positive economic news buoyed sentiment.
That is relief for some but for others, especially in politics, it heralds the misery of uncertainty. Opinion polls featuring runners and riders in the next election have come hot on the heels of one another. In other news, polling shows that immigration has overtaken housing as the top issue on people’s minds. It’s topsy-turvy.
What is clear is that the certainties of 2023 –........
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