A senior Nato figure stunned EU ambassadors at a briefing in Dublin last week when he told them that it was not a question of “if” Russia would invade the EU, but simply a matter of “when”.
Admiral Rob Bauer from the Netherlands who is chair of the Nato military committee, and in that role the chief military adviser to the organisation’s secretary general, gave a briefing to EU ambassadors during a two-day visit to Ireland.
During his official visit, at the invitation of the chief of staff of the Defence Forces, Sean Clancy, he met senior Irish military personnel as well as the secretary general of the Department of Defence, Jacqui McCrum, and addressed the Institute for International and European Affairs (IIEA).
The Dutchman’s prediction, during his confidential meeting with diplomats, of a Russian invasion did not come as a great surprise to ambassadors from eastern Europe and the Baltic States, but it shocked some of those from western Europe who are inclined to take the warnings from their Baltic counterparts with a pinch of salt.
Make no mistake, the outcome of the war will determine the fate of the world; Russia’s ambitions lie far beyond Ukraine
“What made us sit up was that this wasn’t the usual dire warning from Estonia or Latvia, but came from an experienced Dutch military figure,” remarked one of the diplomats present. Not all of them accepted that the prediction will come to pass, but they were shaken that it was made at all.
In his address to the IIEA, Admiral Bauer was not quite as dramatic, but made the point that Ireland could not rely on its neutrality if there was no rules-based international order to guarantee it. He warned that the stakes involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine could not be higher and the future of European democracy and the sovereign rights of nations were hanging in the balance.
During his speech he remarked on the anti-Nato protest outside the IIEA premises on North Great George’s Street saying it pointed up why the military alliance was necessary to protect democracy. “Make no mistake, the outcome of the war will determine the fate of the world; Russia’s ambitions lie far beyond Ukraine,” he said.
If Putin does win the war in Ukraine, the next target is likely to be one of the small Baltic countries, Estonia or Latvia, on the pretext of protecting the ethnic Russian population in one of those countries. The question for Ireland will be how to respond to an attack on a fellow EU member state.
The solidarity clause of the Treaty on European Union states that, “if a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other member states shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. This obligation is qualified by the protocol given to us before the second Lisbon Treaty referendum which exempts Ireland from being required to offer military assistance as opposed to other types of aid.
While the military aid Ireland could offer in the event of an invasion of the EU would be negligible, a refusal to come to the aid of a fellow member state would alter our relationship with the Union in a fundamental fashion. And the other side of the coin is that we would expect the rest of the EU to come to our aid if the Russian threat materialised near our shores.
Irish waters in the Atlantic represent a black hole in western defences as a result of decades of neglect in investment in our navy. Russia has already shown a serious interest in the undersea cables linking Ireland to the United States, which are critical to this country’s continued prosperity.
We would be completely exposed if Putin decides to take his wars to the EU’s exposed flank on the western approaches. This may be a far-fetched scenario, but it is not outside the bounds of possibility and could even become a probability if Donald Trump returns to the White House and gives Putin the green light to do what he wants in Europe.
While the Irish response to the invasion of Ukraine has been strong on a humanitarian level, there still appears to be very little public appreciation of the grave threat Europe now faces. Last week in the European Parliament, three of Ireland’s 13 MEPs voted against a vital aid package for Ukraine, approved by all 27 EU leaders.
The three Irish MEPs who voted against the latest aid package for Ukraine were Clare Daly, Mick Wallace and Luke “Ming” Flanagan, all of whom have been vociferously anti Nato, before and since the invasion of Ukraine. Chris MacManus of Sinn Féin also voted against the aid package initially, but subsequently reversed his vote saying he had made a mistake.
The fact that three Irish MEPs were among just 40 out of the 705 member parliament to oppose aid to Ukraine demonstrated the need for a full and frank debate about where Ireland’s interests lie in an increasingly dangerous world. The European elections in June should provide an opportunity for that discussion.
‘Not the usual dire warning’: Why a prediction about Russia invading the EU spooked diplomats
10
26
08.03.2024
A senior Nato figure stunned EU ambassadors at a briefing in Dublin last week when he told them that it was not a question of “if” Russia would invade the EU, but simply a matter of “when”.
Admiral Rob Bauer from the Netherlands who is chair of the Nato military committee, and in that role the chief military adviser to the organisation’s secretary general, gave a briefing to EU ambassadors during a two-day visit to Ireland.
During his official visit, at the invitation of the chief of staff of the Defence Forces, Sean Clancy, he met senior Irish military personnel as well as the secretary general of the Department of Defence, Jacqui McCrum, and addressed the Institute for International and European Affairs (IIEA).
The Dutchman’s prediction, during his confidential meeting with diplomats, of a Russian invasion did not come as a great surprise to ambassadors from eastern Europe and the Baltic States, but it shocked some of those from western Europe who are inclined to take the warnings from their Baltic counterparts with a pinch of salt.
Make no mistake, the outcome of the war will determine the fate of the world; Russia’s ambitions lie far beyond Ukraine
“What made us sit up was that........
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