Politicians across the political spectrum believe there is a good chance that the proposed Constitutional changes relating to the family will be rejected by voters on March 8th – but, remarkably, most of them don’t appear too bothered by the prospect.
Considering that the two amendments have the support of virtually the entire Dáil, the lack of enthusiasm for the proposals across Government and Opposition benches is noteworthy.
The reluctance of many Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs stems from the belief that the changes are unnecessary, and potentially politically dangerous, while the lack of enthusiasm on the Opposition side reflects a view that the amendments do not go far enough.
With such halfhearted support, there is a very real chance that the amendments, which originated in proposals from the Citizens’ Assembly and were approved almost unanimously by the Dáil, will be rejected by the voters who bother to turn up on March 8th.
Senator Michael McDowell in a recent Irish Times column argued that a No vote was the wisest option and he received overwhelming support in this newspaper’s Letters page.
“How did we get ourselves into this?” groaned a rural Fine Gael TD, who recalled the sardonic comment of the late John Kelly, one of the party’s most prominent figures in the 1980s. He remarked that Fine Gael could never pass a sleeping dog without giving it a good sharp kick.
The core of the two amendments is a fundamental change in Article 41 of the Constitution, which deals with the family. One amendment proposes to delete the current definition of the family as based marriage and expand it to “whether founded on marriage or on other durable relationships”. The other amendment is to delete the reference to women and their work in the home and replace it with wider reference to care by members of a family of one and other.
It took a lot of wrangling within Government to come up with the wordings and few seem particularly happy with the outcome. Senator Michael McDowell in a recent Irish Times column argued that a No vote was the wisest option and he received overwhelming support in this newspaper’s Letters page.
[ Mansplainers are in full ‘listen ladies!’ voice, telling us we’re reading it all wrong as referendum nears ]
Government TDs say that most voters haven’t heard of the referendums. Apathy and confusion are the principal responses of those who have. Many have a sense that the electorate is in a mood to vote No, particularly to the amendment that deletes the concept of marriage as the basis of the family and replaces it with the undefined term “durable relationships”.
The history of referendums suggests that there is always a strong chance of a No vote when voters are not clear about the implications of constitutional change, and particularly when the campaign for a Yes appears halfhearted. The slogan “If you don’t know, vote No” has proved to be powerful on a number of occasions.
While there were clear Yes majorities for marriage equality, and the deletion of the prohibition on abortion, the electorate has in recent years voted No to a series of proposed changes where it had been widely assumed that there would be an easy victory for the Yes side.
In 2011 voters declined to take the advice of the political system and give Oireachtas committees more power to conduct inquiries. In 2013 they voted against the plan to abolish the Seanad, and in 2015 rejected a proposal to reduce the minimum age for presidential candidates from 35 to 21.
Even in more hotly contested referendums where the Yes side won on a substantial turnout, like marriage equality in 2015 and the abolition of the prohibition on abortion in 2018, there was a significant No vote. On marriage equality, the No side got 38 per cent of the vote while it was 34 per cent on abortion.
The political impact of a No vote is hard to gauge. It clearly wouldn’t be good for the gGovernment, but given that all of the Opposition parties are also lined up on the Yes side, it would hardly amount to a very damaging setback
It is probably fair to assume that most of those who voted No to marriage equality and abortion will oppose the changes to the definition of the family. Even taking into account the demographic changes since those referendums, it means the No campaign starts off with a strong base of support.
When the reservations of public figures who supported the liberal changes – ranging from Michael McDowell to left wing TDs such as Catherine Connolly from Galway and Michael McNamara from Clare – are added to the mix, the challenge facing the Yes campaign is clear.
What will make that challenge even greater is that there appears to be such little enthusiasm behind the Yes campaign. Minister for Equality Roderic O’Gorman has been leading the charge virtually on his own, with just a few stragglers behind him.
The political impact of a No vote is hard to gauge. It clearly wouldn’t be good for the Government, but given that all of the Opposition parties are also lined up on the Yes side, it would hardly amount to a very damaging setback.
Some Government TDs even take the view that it may act as a convenient safety valve, allowing the voters to indulge in a consequences-free protest vote and get some of the resentments out of their system in advance of the serious electoral contests due later in the year.
Politicians do not have much faith the referendums will pass. Shouldn’t they be more worried?
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25.01.2024
Politicians across the political spectrum believe there is a good chance that the proposed Constitutional changes relating to the family will be rejected by voters on March 8th – but, remarkably, most of them don’t appear too bothered by the prospect.
Considering that the two amendments have the support of virtually the entire Dáil, the lack of enthusiasm for the proposals across Government and Opposition benches is noteworthy.
The reluctance of many Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs stems from the belief that the changes are unnecessary, and potentially politically dangerous, while the lack of enthusiasm on the Opposition side reflects a view that the amendments do not go far enough.
With such halfhearted support, there is a very real chance that the amendments, which originated in proposals from the Citizens’ Assembly and were approved almost unanimously by the Dáil, will be rejected by the voters who bother to turn up on March 8th.
Senator Michael McDowell in a recent Irish Times column argued that a No vote was the wisest option and he received overwhelming support in this newspaper’s Letters page.
“How did we get ourselves into this?” groaned a rural Fine Gael TD, who recalled the sardonic comment of the late John Kelly, one of the party’s most prominent figures in the 1980s. He remarked that........
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