By Ahn Ho-young
Ahn Ho-young
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un started the new year with strikingly strident threats against the South. According to him, South Koreans are no longer brethren, but arch enemies at war with North Korea. North Korea says it must stop the mistake of treating southern scum as partners for reconciliation and unification. Kim then ordered his military forces to prepare for a grand war to subdue the whole territory of South Korea with all available capabilities, including nuclear force, if any situation arises.
North Korea threatened to turn South Korea into “a sea of fire” 30 years ago in 1994. The threat has been repeated from time to time, on such occasions as the joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States. The governments and citizens in both countries became used to the repeated threats. This time, Kim’s threat is causing unusually deep concerns in both Seoul and Washington that it might be more than empty words. There arise various speculations as to what his intentions may be. This is the time when we must prepare ourselves against whatever intentions the North Korean leader may hold.
First and foremost, we must understand the nature of the threat arising from North Korea. North Korea is a country with miserable human resource development in terms of economy, education, public health and social welfare. Still, it managed to develop highly advanced nuclear capabilities and missile technology. At the same time, its conventional military capabilities are far behind that of the ROK. In a word, it’s a country ridden with deep anomalies where people suffer in miserable conditions.
As for the conventional military capability, the Global Firepower Report, the most authoritative surveyor in the field, recently rated the ROK as the fifth-strongest in the world. The report degraded North Korea from 34th last year to 36th this year. With all these factors considered, most analysts assess the possibility of North Korea’s waging an all out war as extremely low. For them, a more likely scenario of North Korea’s military action will be a localized conflict, employing irregular means. They also warn that the ROK must make sure that these limited conflicts do not escalate to a bigger war, which will raise the risk of North Korea resorting to the use of nuclear weapons.
That’s why it is important to deter and defeat at an early stage North Korea’s military actions. We will have to think more deeply about the possible scenarios of North Korea’s military adventures. We will have to prepare and train our troops, especially those deployed along the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
Second, Seoul and Washington will have to exert all possible efforts to implement the Washington Declaration of April 2023, which created the Nuclear Consultation Group (NCG) between the two countries. The objective set for the NCG is to raise Korea’s voice in the U.S. extended deterrence. The objective must be sufficiently met and reassure Korean citizens about U.S. commitment to extended deterrence.
There are still a large number citizens in South Korea who call for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons or South Korea’s own nuclear weapon program. For the time being, the more realistic option we have is the effective implementation of the NCG. Pyongyang reacted vehemently against the launching of the group, even burning effigies of the leaders of the ROK and the U.S.
Third, this is the time when we must build and maintain consensus on foreign and security policies. Seoul declared the Indo-Pacific Strategy at the end of 2022, which reaffirmed its commitment to developing mutually beneficial relations with all countries, including China and Russia, based on the principles of the rules-based international order.
One of the core principles of the order is to reject the change of status quo through the use of force. North Korea is believed to have already provided millions of artillery shells and even precision tactical missiles to help with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. North Korea is known to be an important ally and supplier of weapons to such groups as Hamas and Hezbollah. These are the reasons why British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, on the occasion of committing much needed support to Ukraine, said that Ukraine’s succumbing to the Russian invasion would only encourage countries like North Korea.
Kim Jong-un’s strident threats must be read against such facts. This is not a time to engage in the political game of criticizing the ROK government’s efforts to strengthen security ties with the U.S. and trilateral security cooperation among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. This is a time when we must pull together.
Ahn Ho-young is chair professor at the Kyungnam University. He served as Korean ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.
What is to be done about Kim Jong-un's threats?
30
0
20.02.2024
By Ahn Ho-young Ahn Ho-young
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un started the new year with strikingly strident threats against the South. According to him, South Koreans are no longer brethren, but arch enemies at war with North Korea. North Korea says it must stop the mistake of treating southern scum as partners for reconciliation and unification. Kim then ordered his military forces to prepare for a grand war to subdue the whole territory of South Korea with all available capabilities, including nuclear force, if any situation arises.
North Korea threatened to turn South Korea into “a sea of fire” 30 years ago in 1994. The threat has been repeated from time to time, on such occasions as the joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States. The governments and citizens in both countries became used to the repeated threats. This time, Kim’s threat is causing unusually deep concerns in both Seoul and Washington that it might be more than empty words. There arise various speculations as to what his intentions may be. This is the time when we must prepare ourselves against whatever intentions the North Korean leader may hold.
First and foremost, we must understand the........
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