By Andrew Hammond
The year 2023 was a big 12 months for global politics and the economy. Yet 2024 could be an even more pivotal year, especially for elections with an estimated two billion people — across dozens of nations — heading to the polls, perhaps more than any other year in modern history.
Little wonder that markets are already looking ahead to these potentially game-changing, eye-catching ballots across the world. These elections range from those in established and emerging great powers like the United States and India, to pivotal middle powers like Indonesia, Mexico and Russia that have significant international influence.
The most watched ballot, of course, will be the presidential election on Nov. 5 in the approximately 340 million populace of the United States. It looks most likely that incumbent President Joe Biden (81) will stand for a second term, despite his uneven poll numbers.
All eyes are on whether Donald Trump (77) becomes the Republican challenger, which would raise the significant, chilling, possibility that the political maverick could become only the second person in U.S. history elected to the White House in non-consecutive terms. The first was Grover Cleveland in the 19th century when he won in 1884 and 1892.
While the outcome of the U.S. presidential race is — at the time of writing — genuinely uncertain, the same cannot be said of the counterpart race in Russia from March 15-17. President Vladimir Putin (71) is seeking a fifth term and is widely expected to emerge triumphant in the more than 140 million population nation.
Indeed, such is Putin’s political longevity, a new term would see him celebrate 25 years in the prime ministership and presidency later this year. Moreover, he is also on track to possibly even surpass Joseph Stalin's long reign as Russian leader by the early 2030s.
Yet, while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched in power, he is not politically impregnable right now, as the Wagner mutiny last June showed. While he may well serve years more, there remains a possibility he could be — unexpectedly — deposed from power. Moreover, his authority may decay significantly if the Ukraine war fails to deliver the “victory” he promised in February 2022.
From a regional standpoint, it is perhaps the Asia Pacific that hosts the most number of pivotal elections. This includes India where polls indicate Prime Minister Narendra Modi (73) is likely to rule the roost again in ballots in April and May in the largest democracy in the world with its more than 1.4 billion population.
Beijing has warned Taiwan — where Lai Ching-te (64), the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate won the presidency — any attempt to push for Taiwan’s formal independence means conflict.
The race to lead Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation with a population of approximately 280 million, is also being widely watched internationally. This is not least as popular incumbent President Joko Widodo (62), known locally as Jokowi, cannot run for a third term due to term limits.
Yet, while he is not on the Feb. 14 ballot himself, his political and economic legacy is, including so-called "Jokowinomics" (state-led developmentalism), which has helped bring a new wave of growth. Moreover, his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka (36) is running as a vice-presidential running mate of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto (72) attracting criticism that Widodo is trying to establish a political dynasty.
Yet, it is not just in the Asia-Pacific region where the political action is in 2024. Other standout elections, outside of Russia and the United States, include in Africa where around a third of the continent will head to the polls, including coup-hit Mali, Chad and Burkina Faso.
In South Africa, one of the BRICS with an approximately 60 million populace, the election may be the most competitive in the post-apartheid era. To be sure, the long-ruling Africa National Congress (ANC) currently led by Prime Minister Cyril Ramaphosa (71) which first came to power three decades ago under Nelson Mandela, is likely to win the most ballots. However, polls indicate that the ANC vote could fall below 50 percent for the first time since it took power in 1994, raising the possibility of a coalition government.
In the Americas meanwhile, the approximately 130 million people of Mexico will likely choose between Claudia Sheinbaum (61), formerly in charge of Mexico City and a member of the ruling Morena party, and Xochitl Galvez (60), a former senator from the main opposition coalition Frente por Mexico, as their next president.
The choice between two women for president is a welcome first in the country’s history. It means that come December 2024, Mexico, a nation sometimes known for machismo, will probably be run by a female.
The outcome of few of these high-profile ballots, which feature a large number of candidates in their 70s, is not yet 100 percent clear cut. However, what is certain is that they will not just shape domestic politics and international relations, but also the global economic and financial landscape, in the key decade ahead.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Mega-election year to shape decade ahead
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23.01.2024
By Andrew Hammond The year 2023 was a big 12 months for global politics and the economy. Yet 2024 could be an even more pivotal year, especially for elections with an estimated two billion people — across dozens of nations — heading to the polls, perhaps more than any other year in modern history.
Little wonder that markets are already looking ahead to these potentially game-changing, eye-catching ballots across the world. These elections range from those in established and emerging great powers like the United States and India, to pivotal middle powers like Indonesia, Mexico and Russia that have significant international influence.
The most watched ballot, of course, will be the presidential election on Nov. 5 in the approximately 340 million populace of the United States. It looks most likely that incumbent President Joe Biden (81) will stand for a second term, despite his uneven poll numbers.
All eyes are on whether Donald Trump (77) becomes the Republican challenger, which would raise the significant, chilling, possibility that the political maverick could become only the second person in U.S. history elected to the White House in non-consecutive terms. The first was Grover Cleveland in the 19th century when he won in 1884 and 1892.
While the outcome of the U.S.........
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