When Rishi Sunak became prime minister in 2022, the conventional wisdom was that he would help stabilize the flailing British government, even if the ruling Conservatives were turfed out of office at the general election. However, next month could bring about another period of political meltdown with a possible third change of prime minister in the same parliament.
The trigger point for this possible next phase of political turmoil could come with the May 2 local elections. In last year's equivalent ballots, the Conservatives, for the first time in over two decades, lost the mantle as the biggest party in English councils, and this rout looks likely to continue next month.
If the Conservatives lose big, it will only intensify the political pressure on the prime minister's position. This could lead to a leadership challenge within his party.
Under present rules, such a challenge could be triggered if only 15 percent of Conservative members of parliament write in to express a lack of confidence in Sunak's leadership. At that point, there would then be a secret ballot of those legislators, with only a simple majority needed for victory on either side.
If Sunak loses, a leadership election would begin in which he cannot stand. However, if he wins, he will lead the party into the general election as another such internal Conservative contest cannot be triggered for another year.
The most recent Conservative no-confidence vote came in 2022. Although then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson won the contest with almost 60 percent support from his party's MPs, he was badly wounded nonetheless and ultimately was forced to resign as prime minister weeks later.
A much less likely but still plausible scenario is that Sunak faces a House of Commons no-confidence vote. To govern, a prime minister has to have the confidence of the majority of the House, which should be the case given the significant Conservative majority.
To test this proposition, a motion of confidence could be moved by the opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer to be voted on by all MPs, regardless of which party they represent. No-confidence motions can be on key pieces of legislation that the government regards as so important that it will potentially stand or fall on them.
The last time a government was defeated this way was some four and a half decades ago, in 1979. The then-Labour government under Prime Minister Jim Callaghan lost a confidence vote, which led to a general election being called, leading to Margaret Thatcher's premiership.
It is in this troubled context that Sunak, often politically cautious, may decide to chance his arm and call a summer general election for June or July.
One variant of these scenarios is that Sunak simply decides he has had enough and quits. While this is unlikely, too, 2022 saw two such prime ministerial resignations from Johnson and also Liz Truss amid the controversy over her mini-budget.
Sunak's present exasperation cannot entirely rule out a resignation, allowing another Conservative to stand as prime minister. Since he assumed office, he has made numerous political reboots and thousands of policy announcements, but nothing has fundamentally changed Britain's political climate.
According to the most recent Electoral Calculus forecasts, based on the latest opinion surveys, the probability of a Labour majority in the House of Commons is 95 percent. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Labour being the largest party is 99 percent. While polls may tighten in the coming weeks, the direction of travel appears clear.
Almost a decade and a half since the Conservatives first took power in 2010, and five prime ministers later via David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Sunak, the party looks increasingly tired and divided. This is shown in the growing numbers of the party's MPs to announce their retirement from politics — well over 60, at the time of writing.
History shows that Sunak and other recent "tail-end" prime ministers, or beleaguered politicians who come into office at the end of a long period of rule by their parties, tend to want to put off big ballots as long as possible. This was true of previous Conservative prime ministers Alec Douglas-Home and John Major, who called the ballots in 1964 and 1997, respectively, very close to the last possible legal date.
Despite the huge diversity of tail-end premiers in backgrounds, beliefs and styles, a common pattern is that — despite their various talents — they ultimately prove unable to stop the flow of the political tide against them. After multiple years in office, there is growing momentum for the opposition party, which eventually proves insurmountable.
Taken together, Sunak's attempt to win a fifth straight term for the Conservatives would defy political history, and it appears most unlikely that the government will be able to regain sustained, significant political momentum. As May 2 approaches, his premiership is perilously positioned with a growing possibility he may not lead the party into the general election.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Political mayhem looms for Sunak
23
0
14.04.2024
When Rishi Sunak became prime minister in 2022, the conventional wisdom was that he would help stabilize the flailing British government, even if the ruling Conservatives were turfed out of office at the general election. However, next month could bring about another period of political meltdown with a possible third change of prime minister in the same parliament.
The trigger point for this possible next phase of political turmoil could come with the May 2 local elections. In last year's equivalent ballots, the Conservatives, for the first time in over two decades, lost the mantle as the biggest party in English councils, and this rout looks likely to continue next month.
If the Conservatives lose big, it will only intensify the political pressure on the prime minister's position. This could lead to a leadership challenge within his party.
Under present rules, such a challenge could be triggered if only 15 percent of Conservative members of parliament write in to express a lack of confidence in Sunak's leadership. At that point, there would then be a secret ballot of those legislators, with only a simple majority needed for victory on either side.
If Sunak loses, a leadership election would begin in which he cannot stand. However, if he wins, he will lead the party into........
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