By Andrew Hammond
The eyes of much of Europe are, squarely, on next year’s key European Parliament elections. Yet, an increasing number of key EU officials, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are looking further ahead to the Europe of the 2030s by which time the bloc could have grown to over 30 members.
For some historians, the bloc’s biggest achievement in recent decades has been various waves of enlargement. It is no coincidence therefore that von der Leyen visited the West Balkans in recent days where there are no less than six states aspiring to EU membership — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. This showcases how the bloc could grow to more than 30 members in the 2030s with not just West Balkan states under consideration for accession, but others too including Ukraine and Turkey.
The European integration process began in the 1950s, with six founding members, and the bloc has steadily expanded, Brexit aside, since. This includes the accession in 2004 of new members from formerly communist Central and Eastern Europe (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia), plus Mediterranean countries (Malta and Cyprus).
This huge enlargement has had many successes, including powering reform in Central and Eastern Europe. For instance, the region’s most powerful state, Poland, has increased its GDP per capita almost three-fold since joining the EU.
In the period since, however, there has been significant “enlargement fatigue.” This has meant that the accession process for Turkey and the Western Balkan countries has been much more challenging than for the various Central and East European countries prior to 2004.
Yet, the stalled process of recent years has now been rejuvenated. One of the fundamental questions that the bloc must decide therefore is whether it’s serious about another “big bang” enlargement, as in 2004. A key EU update report was published on the progress of aspirant states in meeting accession targets, with a decision on formal negotiations expected as soon as next month.
These enlargement questions are huge, and answers are needed from key existing member states to move forward. Otherwise, negotiations could be opened with Ukraine, but then driven on a long, slow road to potential accession as has been the case with Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey.
Part of the reason these questions are so difficult is that growing the bloc has key implications for day-to-day decision-making rules and procedures. In addition, the nature of the bloc will also change, significantly, with the GDP per capita of potential accession states in the West Balkans for instance below the EU average.
This will have consequences for the EU cohesion policy, which accounts for about one-third of the overall EU budget, which is the bloc’s key policy to help poorer regions catch up with richer ones. Take the example of Ukraine which, according to a leaked internal EU document recently, could get up to 61 billion Euros in cohesion money over seven years, post-accession. Even if cohesion budgets grow, this would leave less money for other members.
Unsurprisingly, therefore, some existing EU members have expressed concern about moving too fast, and too far, on enlargement. It is not just decision-making that will be challenging going forward, but also budgets.
It is for these reasons that key countries like Germany and France are already looking at a detailed roadmap of potential future options. This includes proposals for a “multi-speed” bloc from a Franco-German working group, the General Affairs Council (GAC).
What that body has proposed is an inner core of select EU states such as Germany and France prepared to go further and faster with integration. Some, but not all, of the wider EU 27 members would join this group, as is the case with the current Eurozone of 20 EU states.
GAC asserts that these multi-speed options should include the possibility of new arrangements for non-EU members with the bloc that are short of full membership. For instance, there might be “associate members,” including those members of the European single market such as Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Free Trade Area.
Beyond that, more possibilities for future relationships may exist for other states with the EU, including the new European Political Community (EPC) which French President Emmanuel Macron is a big advocate of. For Macron, the EPC could serve as a potential bridge to an enlarged EU, for candidate nations like Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey, all EPC members.
If any of these nations don’t ultimately become full EU members, EPC could also provide a context for greater institutional proximity to the bloc. EPC has already, for instance, given a new context for the United Kingdom to reach new, post-Brexit accords with some EU member states to increase cooperation in what Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called “a new phase of UK-EU cooperation”.
Taken together, the EU therefore, has much to think through about its approach to a new wave of enlargement. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed the context for this process, however, there are huge challenges remaining in any new, ‘big bang’ of members in coming years.
Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
login
who are we?
contact us
qosheapp
Toi Staff
Gideon Levy
Belen Fernandez
Rami G Khouri
Mort Laitner
Donald Low
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
visit website
