In nine months, Americans will select a president, choosing between the two major party candidates despite numerous poll findings that a majority of voters prefer neither one.
All suspense has been drained from the traditional primary process as Democrats unite behind President Joe Biden while former President Donald Trump has chased his competition out of the field and locked down the nomination after only two January contests — Nikki Haley notwithstanding.
Super Tuesday no longer matters and there will be no breathless reporting of the latest delegate count, no gigantic colorful maps of the country towering over television studio news desks while opinions are delivered by pundits with the appropriate solemnity and insightful assurances.
The uncertainty rather involves whether the president is physically and cognitively capable of the demands and pressures of a national campaign or whether Trump will watch election night returns on a television screen in the common room of a Federal prison somewhere in the Midwest.
The contest pits what a majority of Americans believe is a failed presidency whose public approval on crucial issues — the economy, inflation, immigration, foreign policy — remains mired in the 30% range against a former president facing four indictments and trials and whose public utterances suggest someone bent on seeking revenge by any means on those he considers wronged him.
The Biden campaign brain trust, understanding that a massive favorable shift in public opinion on his record or on questions concerning the president’s age, has embraced a strategy of convincing voters Trump is unfit by demeanor and intellect to serve as president and represents an existential threat to democracy.
Comparisons to fascism and repeated references to MAGA extremists dominate Biden campaign rhetoric along with dark warnings Trump would govern as an authoritarian trampling on the Constitution and destroying individual freedoms.
Trump partisans point to the economic havoc and individual financial hardships created by Biden’s policies, out of control inflation and encouraging migrants to come to the southern border that has flooded the country with more than seven million migrants and resulted in a humanitarian, fiscal and public safety crisis.
And, while Trump’s legal entanglements have provided grist for the Democratic attack mill — particularly his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2001, assault on the U.S. Capitol — the business activities of the president’s son Hunter and allegations by Republicans the president was aware of them is a continuing political headache.
While Trump’s grip on his base remains iron like, the Biden campaign has been subjected endlessly to public hand-wringing, recommendations for a strategy and messaging change and — in some instances — calls for him to abandon his quest and turn to a more youthful candidate with less political baggage.
His approval standings are the most dismal for an incumbent since Jimmy Carter in 1980 and he’s trailed Trump consistently by two points more or less in poll after poll, including — most concerning —in a half dozen swing states that hold the key to victory in November— Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Sideline sniping is common in political life, despite being decidedly unhelpful. It serves only to fuel a perception that the campaign is in disarray, beset by internal bickering, personality clashes, power struggles and disputes over strategy.
It is the sustenance on which social media gorges itself, often distracting high level officials in the campaign to spend valuable time, energy and resources to address it before it becomes embedded in the public mind.
This view from the cheap sets is also the inevitable by product of the relentless media coverage of the president’s dismal poll standings, a belief that he is viewed unfavorably because the campaign itself is poorly managed and in need of a shakeup.
The president’s political and policy vulnerability is exacerbated by occasional instances of his infirmity in public settings — forgetting names and events, leaving sentences unsaid and trailing off into near incoherence, occasional bewilderment and a tendency to diverge from scripted remarks and relate fanciful tales from his past.
His apparent difficulties are magnified and ratchet up the pressure on his campaign team to limit his public appearances or confine them to friendly audiences. A light schedule, however, runs the risk of creating the impression he lacks the stamina to hold up under a rigorous campaign.'
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Even though the age difference between the two is minimal — Biden was born a year after World War II began and Trump a year after it ended — Biden has been more greatly scrutinized.
Questions have emerged quietly in both campaigns over whether the candidates should participate in the traditional presidential debates or forego them as unnecessary holdovers that have lost their relevance in today’s digital environment.
Biden’s strategists are nervous over the possibility the president will commit a rhetorical blunder, appear disengaged or lose a train of thought in mid-sentence.
Trump’s strategists, understanding his often erratic behavior, fear he will reprise an unhinged rant about the “rigged” 2020 election that cost him a second term or spout accusations he is the victim of a witch hunt by corrupt government prosecutors.
The belief that the debates constitute a high risk low reward venture for both candidates is genuine and could well end their 64-year history.
It is not surprising that a Biden/Trump rematch is considered a choice between two badly flawed candidates; hence, the expressed yearning for alternate choices.
Despite the relatively short time left and the logistical nightmare it could entail, it remains a possibility that a health issue could emerge to convince Biden to stand down or that a felony conviction of Trump would significantly erode his support, particularly among undecided voters.
Biden is gambling that while the public may be discontented with him, they despise and fear Trump as an autocratic chief executive. Trump is gambling that anger and resentment toward Biden will overcome misgivings about his impulsive and aggressive payback nature.
It’s America’s choice now.
Carl Golden is a senior contributing analyst with the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.
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