On January 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the revised target of the growth rate of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product from 2.5 percent to 2 percent for the current fiscal year 2023-24. This is the same percentage at which the country’s population is growing, thereby meaning that the economy would become slower by June this year. It simply means an increase in poverty and a decrease in employment.
Amid the slow growing economy, the IMF has yet to issue the third tranche of $1.1 billion as part of the bailout package, negotiations about which would be started with the next elected government, which is due to take oath in the mid of this month. The general elections on February 8 would be different from previous elections because the unspoken mandate of the forthcoming elected government would be to exact money from people and pay to the IMF. The transfer of money would disrespect electoral manifestoes.
Govt staff absent from elections duty could face PEEDA act, warns DC The IMF has also asked Pakistan to run a social welfare program for the poor in addition to the Benazir Income Support Program, as without taking additional social security measures, the economically weaker sections of society cannot endure the onslaught of ongoing high inflation. This emphasis-cum-permission of the IMF is bound to fall on deaf ears of the state, because the poor have no platform to raise their voice. They are on their own. If they take the matter to the street, they would have to face the state’s wrath.
Social security is a targeted subsidy to ameliorate the plight of the poor. Though Pakistan runs a social security system, but in the face of a huge population (around 240 million in 2023) and a high expenditure of the state, it is difficult for Pakistan to launch an additional social security program.
Generally, governments provide subsidized health and education facilities to the poor, but the price hike in the natural gas and oil sectors have affected the poor adversely. Therein lies the rub. Linking the oil sector (petrol and diesel) to the dollar has raised the price of living exponentially, unaffordable for the poor. The same is the case with the natural gas, which is reportedly (to some extent) imported in dollars in the liquid form and converted into the gaseous form. On the one hand, the poor cannot afford to consume the costly oil and gas in their daily use. This is a direct impact. On the other hand, the poor cannot afford the price hike in daily consumable commodities affected by the increase in the price of oil and gas. This is an indirect impact. In fact, the sway of the dollar has gone immense on the economy. In a way, the dollar is controlling the health of the whole economy, rendering all electoral promises otiose – inoperable practically.
Elections Hype This is happening in a country which is affording the provision of free oil and gas to government officials including judges, who otherwise draw hefty salaries and post-retirement benefits. There is no regard for the poor, who are fast falling into the vicious cycle of poverty. That is, they cannot come out of the cycle without an external help. Provided by the government, the social security is just enough to make the poor sustain their lives and not to come out of the clutches of poverty. In developed countries, to people surviving on social security, banks extend loans to let the talented and skilled start their own businesses to shed the shackle of poverty and dependence on the state’s magnanimity. This is not the case in Pakistan. The poor who are without education and skill are destined to remain poor for the rest of their lives and perhaps for generations.
Tyranny is that the elected governments pay less attention to the poor, though election contesting candidates woo the poor voters with alluring lofty promises. After forming the government, the preference of the elected representatives is to gratify the bureaucracy, military and judiciary to persist in power. This is where the system gets skewed – tilted toward the powerful and off the poor.
Punjab’s Pneumonia Peril Examples are galore. The plight of the poor – unable to afford high inflation – was known to the previous elected coalition government. To the detriment of the poor, the outgoing government announced the budget (2023-24) encouraging non-development expenditures: defence spending was increased by 15.5 percent, salaries of civil servants were increased up to 35 percent, and pensions of retired government servants (including retired judges, military officers, and civil servants) were raised to 17.5 percent. This was an act of injustice. The point is simple: at the height of economic crisis, on the verge of sovereign default on external debt, Pakistan afforded favorably a huge sum of non-development expenditures, which were simply meant for firming up the strong and which was bordering on bribery – to the detriment of the poor.
Interestingly, these are the same poor who elect those who run governments and make budgets. In a way, the poor are also part of the problem, because they do not know their rights. They do not have access to information and truth. The media (both electronic and print) and the v-log champs are more inclined to serve the powers that be to earn their bread instead of speaking on behalf of the poor. On the one hand, the poor remain the victim of a biased budget; on the other hand, the poor are the victim of quixotic electoral promises. The poor are cajoled into voting for a political party which, once elected, would submit to officialdom. The practice is continued unabated.
Feathered Espionage
Dr Qaisar Rashid
The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com
The Poor are on their Own
28
1
04.02.2024
On January 30, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the revised target of the growth rate of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product from 2.5 percent to 2 percent for the current fiscal year 2023-24. This is the same percentage at which the country’s population is growing, thereby meaning that the economy would become slower by June this year. It simply means an increase in poverty and a decrease in employment.
Amid the slow growing economy, the IMF has yet to issue the third tranche of $1.1 billion as part of the bailout package, negotiations about which would be started with the next elected government, which is due to take oath in the mid of this month. The general elections on February 8 would be different from previous elections because the unspoken mandate of the forthcoming elected government would be to exact money from people and pay to the IMF. The transfer of money would disrespect electoral manifestoes.
Govt staff absent from elections duty could face PEEDA act, warns DC The IMF has also asked Pakistan to run a social welfare program for the poor in addition to the Benazir Income Support Program, as without taking additional social security measures, the economically weaker sections of society cannot endure the onslaught of ongoing high inflation. This emphasis-cum-permission of the IMF is bound to fall on deaf ears of the state, because the poor have no platform to raise their voice. They are on........
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