We’re days away from the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, and contrary to the usual sense of anticipation, voters there aren’t expecting any surprises — and they’re a little frustrated about it. “It seems like there’s a front-runner that can’t be beat,” said Caleb, a 27-year-old who joined a recent Times Opinion focus group of Iowa voters who plan to attend the G.O.P. caucuses on Monday night.
The front-runner, of course, is Donald Trump, who has a roughly 30-point lead in Iowa polls and an even bigger lead in some national polls. We wanted to use this month’s focus group as an opportunity to hear what Republican voters in Iowa are thinking about him, the race and the country in general.
“I guess I would pray and hope that Trump could be more like the old Trump than this Trump,” said Nancy, a 69-year-old retiree. The distinction she made between the “old Trump” and the “new Trump” zeroes in on a complaint about him we heard throughout our conversation: Many voters on the right support what he stands for and like much of what he did as president, but they’re growing tired of his increasing focus since Jan. 6, 2021, on complaining about being unfairly treated. “I feel like right now all I’m hearing is just everything that’s going against him. It’s just all the legal troubles. I really haven’t heard much about what he’s planning to do,” said Brittney, a 38-year-old writer.
Still, some of our participants felt that the many criminal charges brought against Mr. Trump only made them more sympathetic toward him. “I don’t think it hurts his ability to win the nomination at all. I’d say it just strengthens him,” said Hugh, 57. We asked the eight participants if a conviction would stop them from voting for the former president, and four said it would.
If Mr. Trump came in for criticism, there were also some tough words for his primary rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who have campaigned across Iowa for months. Some focus group participants liked Ms. Haley’s presentation and experience with foreign policy but were critical of her domestic agenda (or, they felt, a lack thereof). Several liked Mr. DeSantis’s policies but weren’t fans of the man himself. The participants were not supporters of President Biden by any means, but only half of them said they were confident the eventual Republican nominee would win the White House in November.
Are there things that you would say are going well in America these days? Whatever comes to mind to you that might be on the right track in America these days. [Long pause.] That silence speaks volumes.
Well, I’ll throw this out. Inflation has eased a bit.
The proliferation of multiple media sources encourages a lot of discussion, both right and left.
The cost of fuel and food has gone down.
What’s not going well?
Foreign affairs, especially with everything going on in the Middle East.
There’s no escaping the partisanship.
The economy, our military are going in the wrong direction. Policies in the Middle East. Health care.
You’re all in Iowa. What’s one word you’d use to describe how you feel about the upcoming caucuses?
Diverse. You have some choices.
A waste. It seems like there’s a front-runner that can’t be beat.
Disenchanted.
Conflicted. I just don’t know who to vote for.
Dismayed.
Unimpressed.
Frustrated.
OK, let’s go through the candidates. What comes to mind when I say Vivek Ramaswamy?
Conflicted.
Joke.
Arrogant.
Annoying.
Used-car salesman.
Self-centered.
Immature.
Yeah, immature.
What word or phrase comes to mind when you hear the name Nikki Haley?
Centered.
Broad.
Uncertain.
Confident.
Backpeddler.
Decent.
Establishment.
Promising.
What comes to mind for you when I say the name Chris Christie?
Fraud.
Verbose.
Career.
Hopeless.
Politician.
Unprofessional.
Unbelievable.
Undecided.
Lots of “un-”s. Let’s go now to Ron DeSantis. What comes to mind when I say Ron DeSantis?
Just not quite right.
Coward.
Authoritarian.
Trump lite.
Leader.
Yeah, leader.
That was mine. Leader.
Irritating.
Brittney, I want to unpack your “not quite right.” Talk me through that.
On a lot of his social issues, I think he’s just a little extreme for me. I think there are a lot of things I do like, and I wish that there were certain things that were different. He’s sort of like that guy you don’t want to date in high school. He’s great on paper, but there’s just something that just doesn’t quite sit right with me.
Understood. The last name on my list is Donald Trump. What comes to mind when I say Donald Trump?
President.
That’s hard. I’m sorry.
Against the Constitution of the United States.
Uncontrolled.
Little egotistical.
Love/hate.
A liar. But I really liked him, and I voted for him when he was president.
Hugh, tell me a little bit about “love/hate.”
There were policies that he did that I was gung-ho, 100 percent in favor of and that set him apart from other politicians: Getting tough with China, pushing back against the media, energy independence, border security. But the uncontrolled tweeting and the punching down and bullying people that he shouldn’t — you see where I’m going with that.
I want to go deeper on some of those policies and others in this campaign. What’s an issue or priority that will drive you toward one candidate over the others at the caucuses?
Economic issues. There are several other things that are important to me, but that’s probably No. 1.
I agree. Economy and foreign policy.
The economy and the middle class. How we’re going to figure out things that are kind of squeezing us at the moment.
Inflation is a big one.
Is there one area for you, Brittney, where inflation has affected you in a way that you really noticed?
I show horses, which is probably not the most common thing you’d hear. Just the cost of that is already really expensive. And then when gas prices go up, we’re really seeing a hit with our shows. I judge horse shows as well. And I’ve lost a lot of jobs. Shows going on for 55, 60 years have had to be canceled.
Either during a debate or a campaign event you attended or an interview you saw or an ad you saw on TV, is there anything you saw where someone said, “I promise to do this,” and you said, “Yes, thank goodness. I want someone to do this. I’m so glad you said this”?
Well, we get tons of ads here, of course. And Nikki Haley’s ads always talk about immigration and border control, which has been out of whack forever. I have Googled till my little fingers are bloody, where I’m trying to figure out how she can do that. And I can’t find it. So in other words, it’s what she keeps saying, but she’s not saying how she can do it.
Yeah, I have to agree with that. I think whenever I hear Nikki debate, I’m always like, “Oh, that is so great.” And then you go back and kind of look at it, and it’s like, “How is she going to actually do all these things?”
I heard directly from DeSantis at one of his rallies here in the Des Moines area. He said, “I’m going to reduce the size of government.” And they said, “Well, how are you going to do that?” And he says, “I’m glad you asked that, because what we’re going to do is something similar to what we’ve already done in Florida and something similar to what Kim Reynolds is trying to do here in Iowa, which is look at the government, figure out the fact that we’ve got about twice as many people working in the government sector as we need and figure out how to do more with less and use our taxpayer money a lot more efficiently.” That earned him a lot of applause.
Brittney, John, Hugh and Caleb, you participated in the 2016 Republican caucuses, when it was Trump against Cruz, Bush, Rubio. I’m just curious, for the four of you, do you recall how you voted in the caucuses?
Cruz.
Rubio.
Cruz.
I was also with Cruz at the time.
Are you feeling more or less excited to caucus this year than in 2016?
Right now, I’ve settled on caucusing for Ron DeSantis. He’s not Ronald Reagan. Nobody is. But in this field, I think he’s the candidate that is going to get the job done.
I’m a lot less enthusiastic. After 2020, the divide between the two parties is so great, it doesn’t have the kind of excitement that there was back in 2016.
It feels very different this time around. It feels more like showmanship — “I’m the coolest. Come look at me. I can call these people these names or do this thing to make myself look cool and put others down” rather than really getting down to the points of what actually matters.
DeSantis stopped in each of Iowa’s 99 counties. At his final event, Governor Kim Reynolds made an appearance and gave him her endorsement.
It’s important to the race because a lot of people go by what other people say.
I was staunchly in Trump’s camp. I voted for him for president both times. I was going to caucus for him, even in light of some of the ways that he’s gone off the rails. But he crossed the line when he started name calling who I think is one of the greatest governors in this country, the governor of the state of Iowa. And he didn’t attend the Thanksgiving Day get-together of candidates that the Family Leader had. I was very disappointed by that.
Let’s talk a bit more about Donald Trump. Do you think he’s run a good campaign in Iowa so far?
No. Like John said, he didn’t show up for the dinner. He doesn’t represent himself well in this state. It’s like he knows that he has a large lead but he’s riding on the coattails of that.
My impression is almost nonexistent. And I could be wrong, but I know what Nikki Haley is doing and DeSantis. Is Trump running? I mean, I haven’t seen hardly anything to go on that he’s involved in Iowa.
He’s had people out going door to door, volunteers on his behalf. And maybe that’s more prevalent in other parts of the state, but we live in what would be considered a very liberal part of Des Moines.
I agree with Patrick, definitely, that he’s been more in the background.
What are the things that you miss about Donald Trump being president?
I did agree with a lot of his policies, and I was really, really hopeful when he was first elected. At the end of the day, I was surprised by how he behaved, I guess.
I think he set his mind to certain things and got things done as he promised, but the way he went about Twitter and talking about people — it dropped there for me, too.
Well, I thought inflation was definitely better under control, but sometimes that’s a fine line on why. The early Trump, maybe not the latter Trump, you couldn’t push him around. I mean, he took stands, and he stuck with it, and he wasn’t pushed around. And I feel like the president we have now, I don’t know, mentally and emotionally — I just always felt like Trump was like, “Hey, this is me, this is what I think, this is what we’re going to do, and you aren’t going to push me around.” I kind of like that.
Well, I remember during Covid, when the auto manufacturers switched over to making breathing apparatuses, he did call G.M. out for being greedy and trying to make a profit off of everyone’s suffering. And he made mention of that after he got everything established for the auto manufacturers to begin manufacturing the devices. And that’s something that I appreciated.
I think I miss somebody being able to say what they’re thinking and being able to put up a stand for our country. I feel like right now the current president and the current situation is that it’s pretty much a person who’s standing up there but doesn’t have anything to say.
Whether you like him or not, is there anything that you really don’t miss about Donald Trump?
The bullying, for sure.
You can be a tough leader, but you don’t have to bully people. You can be tough without being out of control. My father was. And he taught me to be that same way as a manager. You need to be tough, but you got to love people.
How is the Donald Trump who is running for president in 2024 different from the Donald Trump who ran for president last time, in 2020?
I think that he’s almost gone off the rails. In the past, he was a person who was for the people. He said, “I’m not a part of the establishment, I’m not part of this inner circle, I’m coming in to do something, and I have nothing to gain from it.” And now it seems to be more about everything that he can gain from it and not about doing it for the people anymore.
I agree with Caleb. I voted for him because I felt like he was a strong businessman and he could help us in that regard. And I think he did that. But now I feel like it’s his ego has taken over. It’s like, “I am going to win because it’s an ego thing.” I don’t think he cares really that much about our country, even though he says he does. “Make America great again” — I think he’s just using those as words that come out of his mouth. And I think it’s his ego that he does not want to lose.
I agree with what Nancy and Caleb both said. The word that comes to my mind a lot now, where I think it’s different, is “deranged.” And I think he’s more deranged than he was when he left office. I voted for him in 2020. And then I don’t know what has happened, but he’s gone off the rails, as Caleb said. Chaos — that is what I think about when I think about Trump. And there was a lot of chaos in his first administration. At times it would go up, and it would go down, complete chaos. But now that’s why I’m dismayed. That’s why I’m scared, is because if he — anyway. That’s the difference.
I feel like right now all I’m hearing is just everything that’s going against him. It’s just all the legal troubles. I really haven’t heard much about what he’s planning to do.
So picking up on Brittney’s point there: Trump is facing criminal and civil charges in a number of different state and federal courts, relating to allegations about his efforts to persuade people to change results in the 2020 election in a number of states and his handling of classified documents, some of his activities in the 2016 campaign. Do you think he’s being treated fairly?
I think that the fact that they’re trying to keep him off ballots and he hasn’t even been tried for anything yet — I think that’s not right. I think there is — just the way everything is timing, as far as the court dates go, I don’t think that’s fair. I’m not supporting Trump at this point. But I don’t agree with how it’s all being handled, either.
Brittney, does it make you any more sympathetic toward him?
I’m probably a little more sympathetic. It doesn’t mean that I’d go vote for him at all, by any means. But I think I do feel a little bit like it’s just not quite right for him.
You’re going to probably label me a conspiracy theorist or something, but you told us to say what we think. I think it’s typical liberal, socialist policy to go after conservatives. I think if things were reversed and this was a former Democratic president, you wouldn’t see all this. It does make me more sympathetic. Our justice system is the best system in the world — don’t get me wrong. But it still has its flaws. And people who know what they’re doing can take those flaws and really pile it on people. And that’s what’s being done here, and it’s not right.
I agree with that. I feel like he’s being attacked, for sure. I definitely would say I feel bad for him.
Do any of you feel that the charges against him will influence his ability to win the Republican nomination?
I don’t think it’ll be a factor. I think, if anything, it’s only just stirring up his supporters even more to be like, “Oh, yeah, the system’s still against us. We’re so out of the system that they’re just working against us, and we’re still going to win.”
Oh, I don’t think it hurts his ability to win the nomination at all. I’d say it just strengthens him.
One trial or more may play out during the campaign. He could be found guilty and potentially face a prison sentence.
I would say yes, kind of.
But if he gets nominated, I’m not voting for the alternative.
It definitely would make me less likely to vote for someone that got a prison sentence. But honestly, I couldn’t vote for Biden.
The only glimmer of hope is that there’s so many people who are unhappy with Biden and so many people that would jump off the ship for Trump, so we could potentially make a third option a possibility.
Is there any third-party candidate who interests you?
I really haven’t looked into it. But I’d start looking into that if Trump becomes the nominee.
The reason that I’m a little wishy-washy on whether or not I’d support him if he was convicted and potentially facing a prison sentence would be, “What effect does that have on independent voters, people who are undecided?” There’s no way I would vote for the Democrat. But it’d be interesting to see who potentially might rise up if Trump was facing a prison term.
Throwing it open: How, if at all, do you think the charges and a potential trial and outcome would affect his ability to beat President Biden in a general election?
It’s a wild card. I don’t think people are taking it seriously enough. It is so hard to answer, because every time a new charge is leveled against him and charges are filed, all that does is make him more popular, it seems like.
I want to spend a little bit of time talking about both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. How many of you feel positively or favorably about Ron DeSantis? [Four people raise a hand.]
He seems to be a pretty principled guy. He doesn’t seem to carry a lot of the establishment baggage that I think Nikki Haley carries.
I do agree with a lot of his fiscal policies. He seems to be making money for Florida. And they have a balanced budget. Very similar to the same way that Kim Reynolds has run her state.
I never feel like DeSantis really says anything against Trump. It’s kind of like he’s afraid to say something negative about Trump And I feel like he doesn’t stand up and really say what he thinks. He tries to worm around things. And he creeps me out. I don’t like him. He makes me uncomfortable.
How many of you would say you feel positively about Nikki Haley? [Four people raise a hand.]
I felt when she was governor in South Carolina, she was competent there. She is a politician. And she is part of the establishment. To me, that’s not necessarily a bad word. And one of my No. 1 concerns right now is really the liberal democratic order, the rules-based order that came into being after World War II, and that’s what I see crumbling right now, with the growth of authoritarianism. So for me, her position lines up perfectly with me with Ukraine and the Middle East, whereas some of the other candidates, they don’t even begin to represent me. So that’s what I like. I think she would do the best job because of that.
I agree. I think that she’s going to be really great with foreign policy. And she seems to have all the right answers. I’m always impressed when I hear her speak. I do think she comes off as very competent. But I’m just not completely sold on it. I haven’t been given great explanations as to how she will do the things she’s said she’ll do. So I’m not all the way there with her, I guess.
John, you said you didn’t love the way Trump responded about Governor Reynolds’s endorsement of DeSantis and so you switched to DeSantis. When you were making the choice of where you were going to go after you decided maybe not Trump, why did you choose DeSantis instead of Haley or someone else?
Up close and personal at the Nikki Haley rallies, up close and personal at the Vivek and Ron DeSantis rallies, that’s when I made up my mind after that, as to which one I would be supporting. Nikki Haley is an extremely intelligent lady, garners a great deal of respect from me. I think she would do well in a place of administration, running maybe even the State Department or something. She has a great deal of foreign policy experience. But she just doesn’t have a lot of in-depth answers to the questions that are out there of how to solve things. And that’s not what we need in a leader.
We’re almost at time. If you had the opportunity to pose a question to all of the Republican presidential candidates and get an answer, what would that question be?
Immigration, the border control. Everybody says they’re going to take care of it. But how?
What are you going to do for those people that are stuck in the rent cycle right now? We’re stuck and unable to get out of it and don’t really know where to go from there. What, specifically?
Inflation and reparations. What are you going to do about the high cost of everything? And what about taking care of those that helped build the country, that you got free labor from? It’s something that’s well overdue.
I’d like to know how we can narrow the divide between the political parties. I think that there’s a lot of negative energy and hate. And I’d like to see how they can cross party lines and get back to a good spot.
It’s like first grade or kindergarten now. When Reagan was president, he still sat with the Democrats. When we had the Democratic presidents, they sat with the Republicans, and they worked things out together. This is finger pointing and denial. And the country is spiraling in a wayward direction.
Let’s say you had a chance to put a question specifically to Donald Trump. What would you ask?
Have you no shame? Honestly, the way he talks about people.
I agree with that one. I like that. Yeah. Stick behind the things that you’re actually going to say you’re going to do for our country, not run to Twitter to bad-mouth someone.
Mr. President, do you know how to serve us humbly? Strength and humility go together. Strength and bullying don’t. But I’d really like to have him address why he thinks that it has to be that way. It doesn’t.
More of a personal question for folks.
So much of it depends on how private-sector-business-friendly the winner ends up being. And if the winner ends up being someone who is public-sector-oriented or less inclined to go with the free market, then that affects me in a big way.
Well, not only what Hugh said, but working in aerospace defense, I get to see the way the government supports or doesn’t support the military, as well as my own financial situation, because of inflation. And at 67, you can imagine, I don’t have much room for error with my 401(k)s now like I did when I was Brittney’s age or Caleb’s age, where if the market goes up or down because of stupid decisions, there can be a rebound.
Definitely it affects things, and it affects my job and what I do, but at the end of the day, I do think that I control my own life and destiny. And that’s a broader way of looking at it.
It just seems like nobody’s going to do anything — like things just keep getting a little bit worse. That’s just going to be how it is for the middle class from here on out.
Let’s say the person you want to support in the caucuses does not win the Republican nomination. Would you still vote for the Republican nominee in the fall, whoever it is?
I would have to see where we’re at. I’m not dead set on any party or political affiliation. There have been times I’ve been so disgusted, I haven’t gone to vote. I’m not ruling that out, either.
Would any of you consider voting for Biden?
Honestly, if it was Trump and Biden and Biden happened to be in a coma, I would vote for Biden. And I’m not just making that up.
I would.
I would only consider personally voting for Biden if, for whatever reason, between now and November, he did something that made me like him and appreciate him and think he’s being a decisive and strong leader.
Anyone who would say, “Look, I may not love Trump, but if that’s the choice, I’d go with Trump”?
Oh, Trump, definitely. It doesn’t matter who it is. I’m not voting for Biden. We can’t continue socialist policies like we’ve had.
Well, again, if you’re talking Biden/Trump and if it’s the Biden that I see today, I would have to say no to him and yes to Trump. But I guess I would pray and hope that Trump could be more like the old Trump than this Trump. I guess we all have the ability to change. Maybe there’s some hope in there that he might. But I don’t think so.
How would your preferred candidate for the caucuses get America more on the right track? How do you see your candidate being someone who could make things better than they are now?
Pursue a conservative economic agenda.
Cut the deficit. It’s like $34 trillion now. Get that down, and that’ll solve a lot of problems.
Last question.
We can’t continue the way that we have the last four years.
And you think the mood of the country is such that enough people would say whoever the Republican is, we’ve got to have a change?
Yeah, it’s time for a change.
In the aerospace unions, people say, “I can’t vote for that man.” And these are union people that have been union, sometimes, for three generations.
Yeah, I think the economy is largely in the tank. Might be getting a little bit better, but I think most people realize the root causes of that. That and just international chaos as well. None of that works in Biden’s favor whatsoever.
Caleb, Brittney, Patrick and Jamie, you didn’t raise your hand. How do you see it if it was a Republican nominee, whoever it is, versus Biden?
I think there’s just no guarantees. I’m not convinced that either party has a sure shot at it. I don’t have any real reasoning other than if Trump is the nominee, he hasn’t really done anything to improve himself in the last four years, as far as public opinion goes, I don’t think. So why would Trump win this election when he lost the last one?
It seems like a toss-up. Everybody seems fed up. I think if it’s somebody other than Trump, then we’ve got a chance. And they might have overwhelming support. But I think that if it ends up being Trump versus Biden again, everybody’s going to be completely disinterested in it. And then it’s going to be whatever it is.
Absolutely with what Caleb said. If it’s Nikki Haley or even someone, perhaps DeSantis, versus Biden, I don’t think it’s a contest. But if it’s Trump/Biden, it could go either way.
Got it. Jamie, why do you think it could go either way if it’s Trump/Biden?
Because we’re talking about — what? — 50,000 voters, 80,000 voters in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, just to choose three states. People are fed up with Biden. I’m fed up with Biden. My goodness gracious, I can’t stand the man. But when it’s just down to just some counties in three states, please. Trump could pull that off, absolutely. But if it’s Nikki Haley or even DeSantis, I think it’s done.
All right. Patrick, I’ll give you the final word. You didn’t raise your hand saying a Republican would be more likely to beat Biden. How do you see it?
I think the only Republican that could beat Biden is Trump. He has such a huge following. And it’s snowballing every day, from every accusation that’s made against him, that gets more people in his boat. And even though Trump is a sore loser, he wants to show that he’s not a complete loser. And he’ll do everything in his power if he gets the nomination to ensure that he wins the presidency.
America in Focus seeks to hear and understand the views of cross-sections of Americans whose voices are often not heard in opinion journalism.
This discussion was moderated by a focus group veteran, Kristen Soltis Anderson, and the New York Times deputy Opinion editor, Patrick Healy. Ms. Soltis Anderson has done similar work over the years for Republican candidates and partisan groups. She chose the participants. (Times Opinion paid her for the work.) This transcript has been edited for length and clarity; an audio recording of the session is also included. Participants provided their biographical details. As is customary in focus groups, our role as moderators was not to argue with or fact-check the speakers, and some participants expressed opinions not rooted in facts.
Illustrations by Lucinda Rogers.
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