Humza Yousaf is facing the biggest crisis of his leadership after the First Minister axed his party’s power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens. Since that decision on Thursday morning, events have spiralled in a way that few in the SNP believe Yousaf was prepared for. The SNP leader has this morning cancelled a speech he was due to give at Strathclyde University on independence. It comes as reports swirl that he is considering his position.

An imminent election is still only a remote prospect

As things stand, Yousaf is due to face a vote of no confidence in his leadership next week. In a blow to his standing last night, the Scottish Greens suggested they would team up with Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to vote against him in the Scottish Parliament. That means Yousaf has to win over the Alba party – and specifically his critic and one time rival Ash Regan, who he beat in the leadership contest. She is expected to list her demands later today.

To make matters worse, Scottish Labour has this morning said his party will table a vote of no confidence vote against the Scottish government. This is different to the vote in Yousaf’s leadership and is aimed at stopping the SNP from bouncing back from Yousaf losing the vote by installing a new SNP First Minister. This vote, unlike the other no confidence motion, is legally binding and, if successful, could bring the government down. As Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar put it this morning:

‘I think it would be completely untenable for the SNP to presume they can impose another unelected first minister on Scotland and that is why Scottish Labour has said already we don’t have confidence in Humza Yousaf. But, today we will also be laying a motion before parliament saying the Scottish parliament does not have confidence in this Scottish government.’

It means increasingly the talk in Holyrood and Westminster is not just on Yousaf’s future – with many concluding it is a matter of when not if he will go. Instead, it’s whether the next election in the UK will be the Scottish parliament election (currently due 2026), rather than the general election.

An imminent election is still only a remote prospect. Were Yousaf to step down, under section 46 of the Scotland Act, Holyrood has 28 days to fill the vacancy. If there are three or more candidates the winner needs to get more votes than the combined total of other candidates. If there is only one nomination then the candidate still needs a majority of votes. If the position is not filled for 28 days then a general election is meant to follow.

There are still plenty of opportunities for Yousaf and his party to find potential allies and workarounds. However, an early encounter with voters or a new first minister being installed is not impossible if Yousaf and his party can’t stop the current turmoil spiralling further out of their control.