It’s less than a fortnight till the local elections where Rishi Sunak will face his last major electoral test before going to the polls for a general election later this year. Tory MPs are braced for it to be a difficult night. The loss of Tory councillors en masse seems inevitable. If Sunak is really unlucky, he could lose one or both of the two Tory metro mayors. The West Midlands mayor Andy Street is viewed to be the most vulnerable – one poll last week suggested he is on course to lose, another said he could hold on by two votes. If the Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen goes then both Sunak’s critics and his supporters expect things to become rather unpredictable. Houchen was elected the last time around with a majority over 70 per cent.

Yet despite all the talk of Tory gloom, there is persistent chatter in Westminster about whether Sunak will choose to call a general election sooner rather than later. As the Prime Minister has said many times, he is of the view the election is more likely to take place in the second half of the year. Sunak has missed the boat on a May election – despite some in his party viewing making the general election on the same day as the locals as the least worst option. That means most initially concluded Sunak had decided on an autumn election.

However, it’s not impossible Sunak decides to call an election pre-summer. There are figures supportive of the Prime Minister who view it as a viable option. The argument goes that while it may be preferable on economic grounds to wait until the autumn, there are other factors in favour of going earlier. These include party discipline: will the party hold together until the autumn? Secondly, could the boats problem get worse? This week No. 10 hopes for the Safety of Rwanda bill to finally get royal assent. Yet it will still takes weeks at minimum to be operational. Over the summer, the improved weather could mean a high number of people making the crossing. Then there’s the poll rating – it is not in a good place and nor is the Prime Minister’s personal rating. Is there reason to think they will improve, or is there a risk both are on a downward trajectory which time will make worse?

These are the arguments being made for a pre summer election – whether June or July. However, it’s worth pointing out that the bulk of the parliamentary party is in favour of waiting until autumn. It’s also easier to talk theoretically about why sooner could be better. It is another thing entirely to stand up at a lectern not long after dismal local election results and say now is the time to go to the country.