It’s a day that ends in ‘y’ which means hapless Humza Yousaf is once again having a tough time of it. After ditching the Green coalition and therefore his pro-independence majority in Holyrood, Yousaf left himself vulnerable to no confidence motions – and opposition parties haven’t let the opportunity pass them by. As Yousaf faces one vote in his leadership and another in his government, conversations about the tenability of his position have picked up pace. The SNP has now confirmed he will make a statement at midday today on his future. If hapless Humza decides his time is up, who’s next in line to replace him?

Kate Forbes

What comes around goes around. Hapless Humza’s one-time leadership rival finished in a close second place in last year’s leadership race – and speculation is mounting as to whether she’ll make a bid for the top job again. Forbes is hardly a secret sceptic of the current FM, blasting him during a rather unedifying leadership race last year for his record in government:

When you were a transport minister the trains were never on time. When you were justice minister the police were strained to breaking point. And now as health minister, we’ve got record high waiting times. What makes you think you can do a better job as first minister?

Ouch...

Forbes has already carved out a faction of supporters within the party, with the backing of prominent backbenchers including Fergus Ewing, Ivan McKee and Christine Grahame. This time she’s leaving nothing to chance, with her allies said to be studiously examining SNP rule books to avoid any kind of ‘stitch up’ that might leave the next leadership vote in the hands of her parliamentary colleagues. Meanwhile, the party establishment is determined not to allow Forbes a clear run. ‘There will definitely be a challenger to Kate,’ one party source told the Times. ‘It’s just a matter of who.’

Neil Gray

The SNP’s newest health secretary was promoted to the role after his predecessor Michael Matheson racked up £11,000 of data charges on his iPad and, er, tried to make the taxpayer foot the bill. Charming. A former SNP MP, Gray moved up the road to Holyrood in 2021. His name has been doing the rounds for possible SNP leader for a number of months now, despite Gray having run Yousaf’s own leadership campaign. The Airdrie MSP is viewed as largely unoffensive, has been hailed for his pro-business credentials – and is crucially thought to have minimal ties with Nicola Sturgeon. However, Gray is reportedly hesitant about the gig, and Mr S can’t blame him. With the party expected to lose around half of its Westminster seats at the upcoming general election, describing the top job as a ‘poisoned chalice’ is putting it mildly…

Stephen Flynn

The SNP’s Westminster group leader has made a name for himself after some rather smart politicking in the Commons over ceasefire motions. But while Flynn is seen as one of the more competent Nats, his position as a Westminster MP makes him an unlikely candidate to immediately take over. More than that, Flynn’s feather ruffling seems to have crossed a line with some in the party. He is largely credited with pushing Yousaf to end the Green deal – which is the catalyst for the mess the SNP now finds itself in. One SNP politician told the Times that ‘the mood is fairly unanimous amongst everyone I’ve spoken to at Holyrood that Flynn has to be frozen out. He’s getting a lot of the blame for this.’ Oh dear…

Jenny Gilruth

The current education secretary has been touted as a favourite to be next SNP leader, having climbed the ranks of the party since she was elected to Holyrood in 2016. Once a parliamentary aide to the former Deputy First Minister John Swinney, she remains close with the Sturgeon ally. Gilruth was promoted first to culture minister by the former Dear Leader before then taking on the transport portfolio. But there are concerns that the Scottish government minister lacks leadership credentials, and she hasn’t even managed to convince her own wife of the benefits of nationalism. While the former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale admitted she voted SNP in the 2019 European parliament elections, she hasn’t become a fully-fledged Nat quite yet…

Màiri McAllan

The wellbeing economy and net zero secretary made the announcement of the Scottish government's green target U-turn – which in turn drove the Scottish Greens to announce a membership vote on the future of the Bute House Agreement. At 31 years old, McAllan is the youngest contender for the job – but she brings with her some years of experience, holding positions like transport secretary, environment minister and, er, former special adviser to Nicola Sturgeon. It’s who you know…

Ash Regan

Despite no longer being a member of the SNP, the Alba party’s Ash Regan has somehow made the bookies' list of possible Yousaf successors. In a weird twist of events, the former SNP rebel – who stood in the 2023 leadership race before defecting some months later to Alex Salmond’s pro-independence party – ended up in the position of kingmaker last week, after the Scottish Greens said they would not support Yousaf in the confidence vote. Regan wrote to Yousaf with a list of conditions for her backing, including demands for a new independence strategy and a change of stance on women’s rights issues – prompting concerns within the party about what doing a deal with Alba would mean. Particularly after Regan was widely mocked during last year's SNP leadership race for proposing a full blown installation of an, um, independence thermometer. Talk about hot air…

John Swinney

Once Sturgeon’s second-in-command, Swinney returned to the backbenches last year after the Dear Leader relinquished her power. While a totemic figure in the SNP, serving under both Salmond and Sturgeon, Swinney won’t run – despite bookmakers predicting he's a seven per cent chance of becoming the party's next leader.

Fergus Ewing

Descended from SNP royalty (his mother Winnie Ewing became the party's first MP in 1967), the rebel backbencher is a frequent critic of his party and the coalition with those pesky Greens in particular. Never afraid to rock the boat, Ewing made headlines after blasting Patrick Harvie’s barmy army as ‘wine bar revolutionaries’ and ‘fringe extremists’. While Mr S reckons Ewing as leader would make Scottish politics more entertaining, the veteran Nat appears to be pretty comfortable where he is on the backbenches…

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Runners and riders for next SNP leader

24 1
29.04.2024

It’s a day that ends in ‘y’ which means hapless Humza Yousaf is once again having a tough time of it. After ditching the Green coalition and therefore his pro-independence majority in Holyrood, Yousaf left himself vulnerable to no confidence motions – and opposition parties haven’t let the opportunity pass them by. As Yousaf faces one vote in his leadership and another in his government, conversations about the tenability of his position have picked up pace. The SNP has now confirmed he will make a statement at midday today on his future. If hapless Humza decides his time is up, who’s next in line to replace him?

Kate Forbes

What comes around goes around. Hapless Humza’s one-time leadership rival finished in a close second place in last year’s leadership race – and speculation is mounting as to whether she’ll make a bid for the top job again. Forbes is hardly a secret sceptic of the current FM, blasting him during a rather unedifying leadership race last year for his record in government:

When you were a transport minister the trains were never on time. When you were justice minister the police were strained to breaking point. And now as health minister, we’ve got record high waiting times. What makes you think you can do a better job as first minister?

Ouch...

Forbes has already carved out a faction of supporters within the party, with the backing of prominent backbenchers including Fergus Ewing, Ivan McKee and Christine Grahame. This time she’s leaving nothing to chance, with her allies said to be studiously examining SNP rule books to avoid any kind of ‘stitch up’ that might leave the........

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