NSW Labor leader Chris Minns waited until he was firmly ensconced in the government wing of Macquarie Street before he dared to really talk development. Nowhere in the party’s small-target strategy to win back power was mention of Minns and his team’s plans to “build up, not out”.

To do so would have been political suicide for a novice leader looking to turf out a tired but relatively effective government. Instead, Minns delivered the pithy line at a summit called Sydney 2050, hosted by the Herald, two months after the election. To build up, not out was a reference to ending the urban sprawl that has seen the fringes of Sydney lumped with new housing while the more established inner suburbs have been largely spared.

Premier Chris Minns wants to fast-track higher-density development in Sydney.

Those four words fired the starting gun on a policy that will make or break NSW Labor.

Development, which has increasingly become synonymous with overdevelopment, has been a lightning rod in state and local government election campaigns for all sides of politics. Key frontbenchers in Minns’ cabinet, including Planning Minister Paul Scully, honed their political skills over the years campaigning against development in the suburbs to get Labor candidates elected. The same can be said for the Coalition and their candidates.

But the tide has turned, and Labor must now champion development if it has any hope of delivering the homes the state needs. The government must also significantly change voters’ thinking.

Housing affordability and the cost of living are top of mind for voters. Whether they are home owners or renters, young or old, they know something has to be done about a chronic lack of housing. And fast. It is perhaps not surprising, then, that the latest results in the Resolve Political Monitor show considerable support for Minns’ housing plan.

That plan, which at its heart is about increasing density – or the “build up” that the premier speaks of – has the backing of 43 per cent of voters. Despite vocal opponents – the NIMBYS, the recalcitrant mayors – only a quarter of voters disagree with density as the solution to easing the worsening housing crisis, even if that means Minns will have to ride roughshod over obstinate councils. Just over 30 per cent of voters still have not decided how they feel or are ambivalent.

A major overhaul of how we approach housing and planning in NSW is still in its infancy and largely remains in the abstract, but the fact that the biggest group of voters – at least for now – appears to be on the government’s side should be welcome news to Labor. The government’s task is to convince undecided voters that its plan is sound and achievable.