The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have reached a tipping point in their long-standing hostility.
Following the killing of three American soldiers and wounding of many more in a drone attack on the US military base Tower 22 in Jordan, for which Washington has blamed the Iranian-backed Iraqi group Kata’ib Hezbollah, the US has begun a military campaign against this group and similar organisations in Iraq and Syria. President Joe Biden’s choice of response is to degrade Iranian regional capability against the US and avoid a direct conflict with Iran. But the danger of this strategy, amid the spectre of the ongoing Gaza war, could easily further unravel the Middle East.
President Joe Biden stands as an army carry team moves the case containing the remains of 24-year-old Ladon Sanders.Credit: AP
The US and Iran have been locked in a vicious cycle of animosity since the advent of the Iranian, predominantly Shia, Islamic regime 44 years ago. Following the toppling of the pro-Western monarchy of Mohammad Reza Shah in the revolution, the founder of the regime, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, condemned the US for its regionally “hegemonic” support of the Shah’s dictatorial rule and castigated Israel for its occupation of the Palestinian lands, especially Jerusalem – Islam’s third-holiest site. The takeover of the US embassy in Tehran by Khomeini’s militant supporters in 1979, where 52 of the embassy’s personnel were kept hostage for 444 days, and the US’s rejection of the Islamic regime as fundamentalist and an anomaly in world politics, diluted further relations and laid the foundations for a lasting enmity between the two sides.
The Islamic regime has feared a US, Israeli or combined attack, while America and its regional allies have long viewed the Republic as a major threat to their security interests in the region. Washington has pursued a policy of containment of the Republic and heavily sanctioned it, especially over its nuclear program on suspicion of its military aims. Tehran, in turn, has done whatever possible to safeguard its security.
Given the enormity of US and Israeli firepower, and the existence of many American military bases across the Persian Gulf, Iran has opted for a defence strategy of asymmetrical warfare. This strategy has involved not only strengthening the regime’s conventional military prowess, led by its vanguard Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but also supporting a network of militant groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen to deter or combat effectively any outside attack. The regime holds its proxy forces as imperative for its security.
The regime has heavily invested in a variety of short, medium and long-range missiles as well as drones capable of hitting enemy targets within a 20,000-kilometre radius, and in advancing a nuclear program for “peaceful purposes”. Beyond this, it has forged close strategic cooperation ties with Russia and China.
Yet while the Islamic Republic and the US have often eyeballed one another, Iran and Israel have been immersed in a shadowy war for years, attacking each other’s assets mostly outside their territories.
Attempts by both sides at conciliation have failed. The most important came in 2015, when President Barack Obama and his Iranian counterpart, the reformist Hassan Rouhani signed the Iran nuclear agreement (also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA). But President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018 on the basis that Iran was the source of all evils in the region caused Tehran to enhance its uranium enrichment program which has now passed 60 per cent purity. While the US and Israel have pledged they will not allow Iran to produce nuclear bombs, Tehran has moved ever closer to the threshold. Andthough Biden initially sought a resolution of the nuclear dispute after taking office, ultimately his administration has been unable to come to terms with Tehran’s conditions.
How Iran and the US could end up in a war neither of them really want
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04.02.2024
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have reached a tipping point in their long-standing hostility.
Following the killing of three American soldiers and wounding of many more in a drone attack on the US military base Tower 22 in Jordan, for which Washington has blamed the Iranian-backed Iraqi group Kata’ib Hezbollah, the US has begun a military campaign against this group and similar organisations in Iraq and Syria. President Joe Biden’s choice of response is to degrade Iranian regional capability against the US and avoid a direct conflict with Iran. But the danger of this strategy, amid the spectre of the ongoing Gaza war, could easily further unravel the Middle East.
President Joe Biden stands as an army carry team moves the case containing the remains of 24-year-old Ladon Sanders.Credit: AP
The US and Iran have been locked in a vicious cycle of animosity since the advent of the Iranian, predominantly Shia, Islamic regime 44 years ago. Following the........
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