The Israeli and Iranian direct military exchanges have left the Middle East in a state of suspense, as surrounding nations wait to see what will happen next.
The Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, Iran’s retaliation and Israel’s counter-response, for now, have amounted to a show of force between the two foes rather than an opening gambit for a wider conflict.
The Iranian attack was very measured and limited in impact. It was telegraphed well in advance and aimed mainly at two airbases near Israel’s nuclear facilities. Only seven out of more than 300 Iranian drones and missiles hit their targets, causing little damage and minor injuries to a few dozen Israelis. The other 293 were shot down with instrumental assistance from American, British, French and Jordanian forces.
The aim of both sides was not to escalate their respective attacks into an all-out war, but to highlight their statuses. For years, the two nations have been engaged in a shadowy war of indirect conflicts that allow them to flex their power in the region and to international allies, but in a way that also acts as a deterrence and prevents a direct clash.
But this month’s exchanges have brought one benefit: the two countries learnt a great deal about each other’s capabilities, and the level of damage possible if they were to enter a wider conflict.
Another reality revealed was that Israel may not have been able to defend itself against the air assault as successfully as it did if it were acting alone. Had it not been for allied help, many more projectiles may have broken through and caused greater damage to the country.
From Tehran’s perspective, its operation sent a message that Israel was not as invincible and impenetrable as it had been made out to be, and that in the event of a wider conflict, Iran could directly and with its regional affiliates – Lebanese Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, Iraqi militias and Yemeni Houthis – overwhelm Israeli defences. The strikes have also signalled to Israel’s international backers, the US in particular, that Iran is not a paper tiger – it is capable of causing a lot more damage not only to Israel, but also to the interests of Israel’s allies in the region.
Further, Tehran could draw satisfaction not just from US declarations that it would refuse to be a party to any war with Iran, but also that several pro-US Arab states in the Gulf – led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – would deny the US access to their territories for any operation against Iran.
Iran’s show of force has demonstrated that Israel is not invincible
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25.04.2024
The Israeli and Iranian direct military exchanges have left the Middle East in a state of suspense, as surrounding nations wait to see what will happen next.
The Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, Iran’s retaliation and Israel’s counter-response, for now, have amounted to a show of force between the two foes rather than an opening gambit for a wider conflict.
The Iranian attack was very measured and limited in impact. It was telegraphed well in advance and aimed mainly at two airbases near Israel’s nuclear facilities. Only seven out of more than 300 Iranian drones and missiles........
© The Sydney Morning Herald
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