Last week, President Joe Biden went deep on Donald Trump. “The greatest threat he poses is to our democracy, because if we lose that, we lose everything.” To laughter and applause, he then said, “He didn’t show up at my inauguration. Can’t say I was disappointed. I guess he won’t show up for the second inauguration.”

Behind the laughter, Democrats are worried there will not be a second Biden inauguration. It is reported that former president Barack Obama “feels that Democrats very well could lose” the 2024 election. The polls are terrible. Biden’s approval is under 40 per cent. In key swing states, Trump is leading. Of people who say they voted for Biden in 2020, only 87 per cent are saying they will do so today.

Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in key swing states.Credit: AP

Trump has the enthusiastic support of 90 per cent of Republican voters. Biden has just 78 per cent of Democrats. Biden may well be impeached by Republicans in the House of Representatives over his son’s activities.

Yes, the economy is performing strongly. GDP growth is higher than the unemployment rate. But prices and cost of living pressures are up dramatically and, just like in Australia, interest rate cuts may be months away. This is why Biden, along with Prime Minister Albanese, have taken hits to their approval ratings.

Congress is baulking at urgent military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine and Israel. The foreign policy establishment is reeling from the prospect that Washington may fail to stand by these allies – the first time a president is so threatened by such a political setback since the fall of the Soviet Union.

The politics on these issues are invidious. On the aid package, there is this kicker from the Republicans: “Mr President, you want to protect Ukraine’s border? Well, our southern border with Mexico is out of control, and if you want the Ukraine aid we demand you keep asylum seekers out.”

The temperature on this is even hotter than the bitter debate in Canberra over detention orders following the High Court decision in November.

This issue is treacherous for Democrats. For Latino politicians and voters, a harsh Trump-style immigration law will fracture the party and Hispanic support for Biden.