Footy fans beware. Your club can do irreparable damage to its premiership hopes in the coming fortnight, based on the league’s almost foolproof two-game rule.
Compelling stats show teams must win at least one of their first two games to be a premiership contender. For Carlton, hit with a brutal run of injuries to key players and facing two tough opponents over the next week, it threatens to derail their premiership dream by mid-March.
Sam Walsh will miss at least the first two rounds with a back injury.Credit: Jonathan Di Maggio
The Brisbane Lions are hot favourites to beat the Blues at the Gabba on Friday night, making the clash with Adem Yze’s Tigers the following Thursday a potential must-win on a six-day turnaround, given 82 per cent of teams – 94 of 114 – that were 0-2 this century failed to qualify for the finals.
This masthead’s draw difficulty rating for the first two weeks awards a descending opponent score of 18 for reigning premiers Collingwood, down to wooden spooners West Coast being worth one. Two extra points are added for an interstate match, meaning the higher the score, the tougher the draw.
Carlton’s start rates equal-fourth hardest, behind Sydney, West Coast and the Magpies, who face both Sydney sides to begin their flag defence, including Saturday night’s trip to Giants Stadium to face GWS.
Scroll further to see which teams have the toughest opening two matches, according to our draw difficulty rating.
Fellow finals contenders St Kilda, the Lions, Geelong and the Demons have the next most difficult opening fortnight.
All six clubs that lost their first two matches of last season – including the Cats as the then-reigning premiers – failed to qualify for last year’s finals series. None of the 20 sides that did recover to make finals since 2000 won the flag. In fact, not since Wayne Carey led North Melbourne to the 1999 premiership (at the Blues’ expense) has a team recovered from losing their opening two games to win the flag.
The two-game rule: Why your club’s flag hopes could be over in March
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07.03.2024
Footy fans beware. Your club can do irreparable damage to its premiership hopes in the coming fortnight, based on the league’s almost foolproof two-game rule.
Compelling stats show teams must win at least one of their first two games to be a premiership contender. For Carlton, hit with a brutal run of injuries to key players and facing two tough opponents over the next week, it threatens to derail their premiership dream by mid-March.
Sam Walsh will miss at least the first two rounds with a back........
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