In life, there are two ironclad certainties: death and taxes. We ought to add a third, politically speaking, that all governments enjoy a honeymoon period after coming to office.
Sooner or later, though, governments exhaust political capital in seeking to implement their policy agenda, encounter unexpected geopolitical events or exogenous economic shocks and ultimately disappoint hardier supporters and swinging voters who owe less fealty.
Anthony Albanese’s honeymoon period has officially ended.Credit: Dionne Gain
As recently pointed out by psephologist Kevin Bonham, our current prime minister has managed to enjoy the second-longest honeymoon period Australia has seen. Marginally eclipsing John Howard in 1996, Anthony Albanese comes in second to Kevin Rudd – and that didn’t end well.
Albanese’s extended honeymoon owed to a variety of factors. First, for the first 15 months or more, the government was widely seen as cautious, considered and competent. It made a virtue of keeping its election promises, restored a sense of civility to public debate and worked hard to fix frayed relationships with key allies, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
As a corollary, Labor’s 2022 election victory was more of a personal rejection of Scott Morrison than it was an endorsement of Albanese, who claimed the top job with the lowest Labor primary vote since the 1930s. Labor also benefited from the lingering bad odour of its predecessor – the revelations of Morrison’s secret ministries and those from the robo-debt royal commission to name just two.
But as they say in the classics, the honeymoon is most definitely over, baby.
If an election were held today, Labor would still win. Yet, Bonham estimates the two-party preferred vote is down to 52.9 per cent for the ALP, representing a slide of 1.4 points since mid-August. A Morgan poll released this week had the ALP trailing on a two-party preferred vote, most others show a severe narrowing.
The Voice referendum defeat certainly played a key role in this, less because of the outcome than how the campaign was run. The deficit of strategic flexibility has left some questioning Albanese’s judgment.
Albanese’s honeymoon is over. Here’s how he can keep the romance alive
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22.11.2023
In life, there are two ironclad certainties: death and taxes. We ought to add a third, politically speaking, that all governments enjoy a honeymoon period after coming to office.
Sooner or later, though, governments exhaust political capital in seeking to implement their policy agenda, encounter unexpected geopolitical events or exogenous economic shocks and ultimately disappoint hardier supporters and swinging voters who owe less fealty.
Anthony Albanese’s honeymoon period has officially ended.Credit: Dionne Gain
As recently pointed........
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