If Peter Dutton is to have any hope of realising his ambition to resurrect the Liberal Party at the next federal election, he needs to win seats like Dunkley. The coastal electorate in Melbourne’s south-east is, after all, the sort of territory marked out as future Liberal heartland to replace the inner-urban seats lost to independents and the Greens.
Ignore the spin and the dampening of expectations in the lead-up to the March 2 byelection. Dutton not only should win it, he has to win it.
Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain
The Liberals have a lot going for them in this seat with its mix of down-at-heel and well-heeled. Interest rates, inflation and cost of living pressures remain high. Tax cuts have been promised, not yet delivered, so the prospect of votes in advance of receipt are low. On top of that, the conservative group Advance, which honed its techniques in the referendum, last week zeroed in on Anthony Albanese to become the “loudest voice” on social media in Dunkley, urging voters to tell him he had to do better.
The Greens are also running a candidate, determined to keep the pressure on Albanese on housing by running a personalised attack to force him to change negative gearing.
Adding some spice to the mix is Barnaby Joyce, looking quite comfortable lying on a busy Canberra footpath cursing into his phone, reminding exasperated colleagues how much time they have spent over so many years at such a great electoral cost, making excuses for his poor behaviour. Senior Coalition figures readily concede the damage caused to all politicians, but doubt the latest Joyce indiscretion will cost votes in Dunkley.
While there is no anger against the government over the byelection itself, caused by the death of a much-admired local member, Peta Murphy, that does not mean Labor will go unpunished. There is still frustration with the Albanese government. Giving incumbents a boot up the backside at a byelection to get them to lift their game, like getting booed at a sporting fixture, is a time-honoured tradition. It usually works against governments, unless the alternatives are so bad voters cannot bring themselves to vote for them.
Labor holds Dunkley with a margin of 6.3 per cent, which psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham writes is the average swing over 40 years against governments at byelections in seats they hold. The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green has noted that at eight byelections in Labor seats during Labor governments, the average swing was 8.2 per cent.
In the overall scheme of things then, the swing required for Dutton to win, is eminently gettable.
If he fails, after reading the official talking points (it’s Victoria, it’s the tax cut bribe, the margin was too great), chills will creep up the spines of opposition MPs.
Dutton not only should win the Dunkley byelection, he needs to win it
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14.02.2024
If Peter Dutton is to have any hope of realising his ambition to resurrect the Liberal Party at the next federal election, he needs to win seats like Dunkley. The coastal electorate in Melbourne’s south-east is, after all, the sort of territory marked out as future Liberal heartland to replace the inner-urban seats lost to independents and the Greens.
Ignore the spin and the dampening of expectations in the lead-up to the March 2 byelection. Dutton not only should win it, he has to win it.
Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain
The Liberals have a lot going for them in this seat with its mix of down-at-heel and well-heeled. Interest rates, inflation and cost of living pressures remain........
© The Sydney Morning Herald
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