For many, the threat from Islamic State ended in the dusty Syrian town of Baghuz in 2019 when the remnants of the organisation finally succumbed to the campaign waged against them by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces.

But the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow and Islamic State’s subsequent claim of responsibility is a reminder that the group continues to have strategic reach and has retained the ability to conduct mass casualty attacks against targets outside their countries of origin.

Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, a suspect in the Moscow attack in which 130 people were killed, appeared in court with facial injuries and a large bandage on his ear.Credit: AP

Islamic State wasn’t eradicated in Baghuz even if their pretend caliphate was. The organisation has, little by little, partially recovered and in its atomised form has become increasingly active. It has significant territorial control and hence freedom of action in Africa. But for the West, what goes on in Africa is generally of little interest, so Islamic State’s role there has gone largely unnoticed.

Islamic State’s west African campaign is a success story even if it remains peripheral to the group’s main focus: which is consolidating its remaining foothold in the Middle East, as well as conducting attacks against foreign powers with whom it is in conflict.

There are estimated to be several thousand fighters remaining in Syria and Iraq. They continue to mount attacks against isolated Syrian government targets and against civilians in the vast desert region in the country’s east. However, the presence of US-backed forces in Syria and Iraq, and Russian-backed government forces in Syria, provides sufficient pressure on IS to limit their ability to plan or execute foreign operations.

Islamic State’s broader strategic goals, of gaining attention and kudos through attacks against its regional or Western and European enemies, are normally best achieved through its presence in areas where it has sufficient freedom of action to plan external attacks rather than focus purely on survival.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on the Crocus City Hall.Credit:

That task at present appears to be handled by Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), the group’s Afghan affiliate.

Although the Taliban are ill-disposed to Islamic State, the realities of Afghanistan and of Taliban capabilities and rule means that Islamic State has been able to establish greater freedom of action there than anywhere else other than perhaps Africa. Unlike Africa, however, the ease with which IS-K can enter Europe or elsewhere is markedly different.