Rugby union in Australia is “the canary in the coal mine of world sport” – signalling a trend whereby soccer will eventually be the sole football code in the world – according to John Wylie, a former chair of the Australian Sports Commission and the MCG Trust.

As we look to a new year, Wylie has peered deeper into the 21st century, convinced that soccer will prevail, whether it takes 50 years or even a century for NFL and college football in America and AFL in Australia to become niche sports.

Wylie, an investment banker interested in the intersection of sport and business, returned from the Rugby World Cup in France convinced there was an inevitability of “the beautiful game” becoming a solely global and dominant one.

“Australia is the only country in the world with four football codes – Aussie rules, rugby union and league and soccer,” he said, adding that it was “generally agreed that rugby union currently sits fourth”.

That assessment is based on the Wallabies’ results and the gradual decline in playing numbers at the grassroots. New Zealand, a country with a fifth of Australia’s population, continues to argue Australia doesn’t have enough elite players or funding to support five Super Rugby franchises. The sport in this country is shown mainly on pay TV and is under siege from AFL and NRL for elite talent.

Wallabies teammates console each other after losing to Wales at the World Cup.Credit: AP

“Rugby union in Australia is the canary in the coal mine of world sport,” Wyle said. “Soccer is the dominant code in most countries around the world. Rugby union is the No.1 sport in only New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa and possibly Wales, with NFL and the college gridiron game eclipsing soccer in the US. Rugby league is the No.1 sport only in PNG.

“TV dollars are flowing to the top sports globally and soccer, or football as it is called in most countries, will only get stronger.”

Wylie’s thesis would probably anticipate rugby league following rugby union as the next of the football codes to die in Australia.