This is a translated transcript of a video by Yogendra Yadav, lightly edited for style and clarity.
Election season is here which means it is survey season.
India Today recently conducted a major survey and published it in the magazine with a bold headline which announced that Modi ji [Prime Minister Narendra Modi] is going to win for the third time.
Friends called me up asking for my opinion on the survey. I said I don’t make predictions. I work to build the future, not to predict it. They still insisted that there must be something wrong and that it certainly is some stratagem of the government. But I do not agree.
The way to deal with a survey is not to doubt its intentions, such as the involvement of money in it. Such games are involved no doubt. But if you want to understand any survey, you must delve deep into it and since it has been requested by so many friends, I will tell you five things to understand this survey and many such surveys that are yet to come.
Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews
First of all, this survey is based on telephone interviews. It is not written anywhere. But pay attention to the methodology note when you look at a survey. It contains one word – CATI. What is CATI? It means this is based on Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews.
The kind of surveys we used to conduct earlier involved our students or other people who would pay visits and knock on someone’s door and seek permission to speak. Then they would sit face to face and talk. Nothing like this has happened here. This has been done over the telephone. They got telephone numbers from as many companies as possible and called up people randomly. Then they spoke to those who responded. I am not pointing out any dishonesty in it.
But it has two consequences.
First, one talks on the telephone. While replying to the person whom you cannot see, one would hesitate a bit, at least I would.
But the second and more important thing is – does everyone have a telephone? It is generally believed that nowadays, by and large, everyone walks around with a telephone. But look across the country.
The NSS survey found two years ago that 73% households in the country had a telephone. Last year, CSDS conducted a survey on this issue and found that 69% of the people in the country possessed a telephone. That is, there are still 31% people who do not have a telephone.
But the type of such people is not very varied. Among the poorest, 51% do not possess a phone. Very few elderly people use phones. It means when you conduct telephonic interviews, you will not meet all types of people. Certain types of people, the bottom 20%-25%, who do not have a telephone, will be left out of the survey.
Now, do all these people vote in the same way? Or are their political opinions the same as others?
The CSDS had also checked this in its survey conducted last year. They observed that among those who had a telephone, 41% said they would vote for the BJP and among those who did not have one, 35% said so. It means fewer people among those who are not included in this survey due to a lack of telephone are going to vote for the BJP. Read the survey carefully but remember that the 20%-25% at the bottom are out of its purview.
If you ask, they will say we have given weightage. I know there are ways to give weightage. But it is done when one has to adjust 45% to 48%. That’s when you give weightage. If you have left out 25% or 30% people, there is no way to fix it with weightage.
Margin of error
Second is margin of error.
Every survey claims that it is an estimate. The estimate may be slightly lower or higher. The survey states how much can be adjusted. It is usually ±2%. It means that when the survey says that the NDA will get 42% votes and INDIA coalition will get 37% votes and there is an error of ±2% then 42 can be 40 and 37 can be 39. You may think of it as a minute difference. But this is not minute. This little figure of 2% votes can make a difference of at least 40 seats!
Despite the Ram Mandir wave and Ayodhya temple construction, and everything that happened, this survey says that the BJP will get 304 seats, that is, only one seat more than last time.
If the margin of error is -2% then this figure can easily be 264 or 260 according to the estimate of this particular survey.
More importantly, this survey says that our estimate has a margin of error of ±5% at the local, or state, level.
For instance, in Karnataka, the survey said that the Congress will get 42% while the BJP will get 53% votes. If there is a ±5% error, then it can become a neck to neck fight with 47% or 48%.
So, things might not be as they appear. You may say that the error may lie to the other side. True. But I am only urging you not to draw conclusions purely on this basis. Because the survey has a margin of error as every survey does. They have already told us. But remember, the vote has not been cast yet. Anyway, we’ll talk about it later.
Dig deep
Here’s the third aspect. Let us delve deeper into the survey. When we usually view a survey, we only look at the number of seats and votes and that’s about it.
We need to give a thorough look and see what people say especially about the economy. Remember it does not include the bottom 20%. We still need to see what the top 80% are saying. They should be asked whether the employment situation in the country is worrisome. Yes, it is quite worrying. 71% people say that the condition is worrisome or very worrisome. 54% people say that it is very worrisome.
Well, worrisome it is, but what did the Modi government do about it? Were the measures good, bad or satisfactory? Only 32% say that the government has done some decent work regarding unemployment. 25% say nothing much was done and 31% say nothing was done at all.
Also read: Hunger and Unemployment in Modi’s Amrit Kaal
Keep in mind that unemployment is a problem. Modi government is not doing anything. Ask them how much impact has inflation had on their household’s economy and financial condition. 62% people say that inflation has turned the situation so bad that the family is unable to survive. These 62% are not the bottom 5%-10% and bear in mind that the bottom 20% are still not included. Yet they are saying that survival is difficult.
Ever since Modi ji’s government came to power, how has the financial condition of your family changed? Has it become better than before? 35% say that it has become worse than before, 29% say it is the same as before. If we add them, then two-thirds or 64% people are saying that there has been no improvement in their condition in the last 10 years.
It may not have happened till now but is there a possibility that there will be improvement in future? People don’t believe so either. Only 25% of the people believe that their situation will improve. 30% say it will get worse. The rest say it will remain the same. It means two-third people say that the situation would either remain the same or it would get worse.
So, if your condition is poor, whose condition is good? That’s another question. That is why I say that one should always look inside the survey. You will get all the answers. They ask whether the work of this government has widened the gap between the rich and the poor. That the rich have become richer; the poor became poorer. Has this happened? Yes.
45% agreed that it happened. Only 37% disagreed, which means more people are saying that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer.
Now, a straightforward question is – who has benefited the most from the policies of this party and the Modi government?
52% people say big businesses.
Adani was not one of the options otherwise people would have picked it. 52% say only big people have benefitted, only 8%-9% say farmers have benefited, 6% say labourers have benefited, 15% say others. But everyone else says that big people have benefited from the policies of this government.
Now, look, this is the picture of the economic condition we are reiterating. The people in these surveys are not from the bottom strata. Even they are saying that the situation is very bad. The country is grappling with inflation, unemployment and the widening divide between the rich and the poor. The question of vote is another matter. This is about the mood regarding economy which is very grim and negative. People are disappointed and angry. Now, let us move beyond the economic situation and look at the political situation.
Modi ji claims neither will he eat nor let anyone else eat (in terms of corruption). So, the survey asked people if corruption has reduced since this government was formed.
The number of people who say that it reduced is equal to those who say it did not. So, this card does not work.
The opposition says that democracy is under threat. When the people were asked whether there is a threat to democracy in the country, 46% people said that there is a threat, 39% said no, the rest had no opinion. It means they are talking about voting for the government but at the same time say that there is a threat to democracy. Here’s another related question – is the government misusing agencies?
Only 37% people say government not misusing ED, CBI to harass opposition
People agree with this too. In this case too, 46% people said yes, the government is using it unnecessarily and wrongfully to harass the opposition. 37% people disagreed. Now, remember that someone who is unable to say much openly will probably not express their views openly in the survey and will definitely not speak about it on the telephone. Yet when people were asked if they can express their views openly about politics and religion only 47% people claimed that they can do so on the phone while 41% people said on the phone that they cannot express their views openly.
There is fear and oppression in the country. There is a threat to democracy and there is no respite from corruption.
You are free to draw your own conclusion.
Also read: Backstory: Polls, Verdicts and Media Narratives on Counting Day
Tune out of toxic TV psephology
The fifth and final point: As Ravish Kumar says, don’t watch much TV, I too would advise you to watch surveys less. This country has more than enough psephologists. Everyone, from the person sitting at a paan shop to someone sitting in the park, is a psephologist.
And I keep asking people to predict about things like the rain. What good is a prediction when it is about our own actions, something we are in control of?
Therefore, avoid psephology, watch less surveys. Remember that an election race is ahead but not even a single step has been taken yet. These surveys are merely an estimate of what a person is thinking of doing two and a half to three months from now.
Not a single person has cast their vote yet.
Whatever we want, will happen. There are challenges, but there are also possibilities.
In the end, here are some verses by Sarveshwar Dayal Saxena.
We are surrounded
Not by our disabilities
But by possibilities.
Every wall can have doors
And whole mountains can pass through each door.
If power is limited
There is powerlessness in everything too
If arms are stunted
Even the ocean has its limits
Strength is just another name for desire
The land between life and death
Does not belong to destiny
But to me.
Therefore, look at the mood of the nation, but don’t spoil your own mood. Move forward and do what needs to be done.
Translated and transcribed by Naushin Rehman.
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