A shift in Ontario politics, at least on the opposition side but some good numbers for Ford as well in latest poll.
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If an election were held today, Doug Ford’s PC Party would win another big majority government.
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The latest poll from Liaison Strategies also shows Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals would form the opposition and regain official party status at Queen’s Park.
Oh, and the NDP, they’d be relegated to third place once again.
The telephone poll of 1,280 eligible Ontario voters finds that 40% would back Ford’s PCs, 30% would back Crombie’s Liberals but just 18% would back the NDP under Marit Stiles.
Ford’s support is pretty much where it was in the last election when his party won 83 seats, but Crombie has been able to move the Liberals up since taking over as leader in December but only at the expense of the NDP.
In the last two elections, the Liberals haven’t been able to even win enough seats to be considered a recognized party in the legislature. Under the official rules, the nine Liberal MPPs are considered independents and given limited resources and time in Question Period compared to the NDP.
But like they did under former leader Andrea Horwath and continue to do under Stiles, the NDP has squandered their opportunity to cement themselves as the left of centre choice in Ontario. In every province west of Ontario, there is essentially no Liberal Party to speak of and elections are between the NDP and parties representing what is often called a free market coalition.
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Had the Ontario NDP played their cards right starting in 2018, they could have ensured the same in Ontario. Instead, the Ontario Liberal Party is showing signs of coming back to life.
Not that the Crombie’s Liberals should be popping champagne corks yet.
When Steven Del Duca took over as leader of the Liberal Party in March 2020, they saw a bounce in the polls. There were periods in 2020, 2021 and even early 2022 where the Del Duca Liberals were leading Ford and his PC Party and then the campaign happened and the Liberals ended up at 24%, 16 points behind Ford.
It’s always important for political types to remember that voters are fickle, polls can change and campaigns matter. Those are three rules that apply to every party, including Ford, who appears to be sitting pretty at the moment.
Beyond the 40% voter support there are some other good news numbers for Ford in this poll.
Just shy of half of voters, 49%, say the federal carbon tax should be scrapped. The environment isn’t the issue it was before for the Liberals or NDP with 62% saying pollution has decreased in the province compared to five years ago.
In a head-to-head question on which issue is more important 54% said affordability while just 25% the environment with 21% saying they didn’t know.
Which makes Bonnie Crombie’s recent comments to an Empire Club luncheon in Toronto problematic.
During a fireside chat after her speech last week, Crombie was asked about her promises to put more money into health care and education and how she would make sure the government, if she were running it, could pay for these promises.
“Well, it’s very interesting, because I’ve been thinking about what exactly the government is spending money on other than gimmicks and freezing the gas tax and giving you a rebate for your stickers and making them so you don’t have to pay for them,” Crombie said.
“That’s really reducing the fiscal capacity and I keep thinking, would people really miss that or is that money that could be better invested in education and our health care system?”
Calling tax cuts and fee cuts a reduction in the fiscal capacity is a tell, Crombie thinks government should have that money instead of voters. Given that her party is currently trying to win a by-election in the suburban seat of Milton, these comments will hurt the party.
Crombie has done well taking support from the NDP, but she’s likely taken as much as she can there. To win, she’ll need to peel voters away from Ford’s PCs and she won’t do it by promising to increase taxes and fees on commuters.
Promises like that are music to Doug Ford’s ears.
blilley@postmedia.com
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