The Trudeau government’s mandate that all new passenger vehicle sales must be electric or plug-in hybrid by 2035 could cause chaos because Canada’s electricity grid isn’t close to having the capacity needed to charge them, according to a new study by the Fraser Institute.
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The fiscally conservative think tank estimates in a report released Thursday that to meet the higher demand for electricity will require increasing electricity generation nationally by up to 15.3% within 11 years.
An increase of that size in such a short time frame, study author G. Cornelis van Kooten warns in “Failure to Charge: A Critical Look at Canada’s EV Policy,” isn’t “realistic or feasible” because it would mean the equivalent of constructing 10 new mega hydro dams across the country, or 13 new large-scale natural gas plants.
The alternative, would be installing almost 5,000 new large wind turbines, which would still have to be backed up by natural gas peaker plants, hydro or battery storage, because wind power can’t provide base load power to the electricity grid on demand.
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The idea any of these mega-projects, or new, large-scale nuclear plants as an alternative in some provinces, could be operating in 11 years, given the lengthy government-mandated processes they would have to undergo before construction could begin, is absurd.
The irony is these mega-projects would be opposed by many of the same protesters demanding Canada achieve net zero industrial greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Complicating matters is that the provinces are responsible for electricity generation, not the federal government, that power needs across the country vary and that the electricity transmission system will also need to be dramatically upgraded.
A national grid of charging stations will also have to be up and running by 2035, and millions of drivers will need to install home charging stations.
Finally, mandating that all new passenger vehicle sales must be electric/plug-in hybrids by 2035 — with interim targets of 20% by 2026, and 60% by 2060 (national sales in the third quarter of 2023 totalled 12.1%) — isn’t the end of it.
The Trudeau government is also mandating 35% of new medium and heavy vehicle sales must convert to electric by 2030 and 100% by 2040, where feasible.
(Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles also qualify under the government’s net zero emissions mandate, but for now they are a relatively small market.)
Placing unrealistic demands on Canada’s power grid isn’t the only issue.
Because a typical electric vehicle and its battery requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle, Canada will need to drastically increase mining operations, which will also have to go through lengthy environmental hearings, before they can begin operating.
Kenneth Green of the Fraser Institute estimated last year that to meet the increased demand for raw materials needed to manufacture electric vehicles and their batteries — the alternative is to import them, mainly from China — will require 388 new mines operating internationally by 2030.
To put that in perspective, Green said, as of 2021 there were 270 metal mines operating in the U.S, 70 in Canada.
“The sheer scale of mining required to meet EV mandates raises serious questions about the timelines being imposed by government,” Green said.
All of this to promote the sale of electric vehicles which at their current level of technology, are more expensive than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles with less range, particularly in cold weather, meaning taxpayer-funded rebates are needed to boost sales.
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GOLDSTEIN: PM's electric vehicle mandates powered by fantasies, report says
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14.03.2024
The Trudeau government’s mandate that all new passenger vehicle sales must be electric or plug-in hybrid by 2035 could cause chaos because Canada’s electricity grid isn’t close to having the capacity needed to charge them, according to a new study by the Fraser Institute.
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
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The fiscally conservative think tank estimates in a report released Thursday that to meet the higher demand for electricity will require increasing electricity generation nationally by up to 15.3% within 11 years.
An increase of that size in such a short time frame, study author G. Cornelis van Kooten warns in “Failure to Charge: A Critical Look at Canada’s EV Policy,” isn’t “realistic or feasible” because it would mean the equivalent of constructing 10 new mega hydro dams across the country, or 13 new large-scale natural gas plants.
The alternative, would be installing almost 5,000 new large wind turbines, which would still have to be backed up by........
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