Last night, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley began a series of last-minute yet vital skirmishes to determine whether either can shock the world and begin to dethrone former President Donald Trump from atop the Republican Party.
About two-thirds of Republicans nationally prefer Trump to be the party’s nominee, and his next closest competitors each have about 11%. It is almost unthinkable to believe that a party that has been in Trump’s clutches for so many years and still prefers him this strongly would turn on a dime. The only way to describe Trump’s position is dominant, and he is highly likely to be the GOP nominee.
Still, CNN hosted back-to-back town hall meetings with challengers Haley and DeSantis ahead of a debate next week and the Iowa Caucus later this month. DeSantis was tougher on Trump than we’ve ever seen him, hammering him for not keeping his promises. And then Haley followed up with more tough talk, saying that “chaos” follows the former president.
Will Trump be on the ballot?Supreme Court should ban Trump from the ballot. And not worry about the political fallout.
For those who argue that Trump’s competitors haven’t directly engaged him enough, they got their wish on Thursday night. Trump is crushing in Iowa right now, according to data aggregator RealClearPolitics, which has him at 51.3% versus 18.6% for DeSantis and 16.1% for Haley. Trump feels so good about his chances there that his campaign’s advertising is solely focused on Biden, contrasting their economic records. Most insiders say the race in Iowa is obviously for second place.
For DeSantis, it appears to be Iowa or bust. His campaign touts a solid organization of local endorsements, including the popular Republican Governor Kim Reynolds. He has not made any major mistakes in recent weeks (and his public performances are crisp and improved) but has, at least in the polling, been stuck in the mud.
DeSantis delivered a rock-solid performance in his CNN event, confidently delivering content that is center cut for most GOP voters. And his campaign believes his supporters are the most likely to caucus (people who came out in 2012 and 2016), while Trump is more reliant on unreliable voters (infrequent participants or first-timers). It was surprising to see DeSantis ignore Haley altogether, given her momentum in the race.
Iowa Republicans tell me the Haley surge is real – particularly in the metro areas – though they admit Trump is still highly likely to win by a large margin. But her expectations are lower in Iowa and she’s peaking at the right time; if she eclipses DeSantis at his Alamo, even a distant second-place finish behind Trump will provide a boost as she heads to her own in New Hampshire. Haley has made a couple of gaffes in recent days, one in each of the first two states. Her failure to identify slavery as the cause of the U.S. Civil War might have caused New Hampshire independents to wince (she needs them to participate in the GOP primary), while Iowa voters may have taken umbrage with her statement that New Hampshire voters are called upon to “correct” mistakes made by Iowa voters.
GOP fell for it:Nikki Haley's 'slavery' controversy is utter nonsense. Republicans are fools to play into it.
During her CNN town hall, Haley went after Trump on the national debt, arguing that nostalgia for Trump’s economic policies among Republicans is misplaced.
“At what cost?” Haley asked, making note that the national debt went up $8 trillion during Trump’s term. She will have trouble convincing Republicans that Trump wasn’t the economic president they think he was. Her strongest moments came in foreign policy, especially on the issue of Israel.
In New Hampshire, Haley is plagued by the continued presence of Chris Christie, who is slicing off a chunk of 10-11% of voters that she may need to eclipse Trump. Those who are desperate for the GOP to move on from Trump are screaming for Christie to drop his bid, but the former New Jersey Governor says he will not. There’s no path for Christie to become the GOP nominee, and his staying in the race seems at odds with his stated goal of ending Trump’s time on the national stage.
The argument that Trump is destined to lose – again – to Biden (made more forcefully of late by DeSantis) is muted by national and swing state polling showing Trump beating Biden. Republicans know that reelecting Trump will be no picnic, but there’s a sense that vindication may be at hand – for the impeachments, for the indictments, for the Russia probe and for the unfair media treatment they think Trump has received over the years.
Scott Jennings is a Partner at Louisville-based RunSwitch PR. He is a longtime Republican advisor and serves as a Senior Political Commentator for CNN.
Can Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis beat Trump? Doesn't look like it.
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05.01.2024
Last night, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley began a series of last-minute yet vital skirmishes to determine whether either can shock the world and begin to dethrone former President Donald Trump from atop the Republican Party.
About two-thirds of Republicans nationally prefer Trump to be the party’s nominee, and his next closest competitors each have about 11%. It is almost unthinkable to believe that a party that has been in Trump’s clutches for so many years and still prefers him this strongly would turn on a dime. The only way to describe Trump’s position is dominant, and he is highly likely to be the GOP nominee.
Still, CNN hosted back-to-back town hall meetings with challengers Haley and DeSantis ahead of a debate next week and the Iowa Caucus later this month. DeSantis was tougher on Trump than we’ve ever seen him, hammering him for not keeping his promises. And then Haley followed up with more tough talk, saying that “chaos” follows the former president.
Will Trump be on the ballot?Supreme Court should ban Trump from the ballot. And not worry about the political fallout.
For those who argue that Trump’s competitors haven’t directly engaged him enough, they........
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