Petrol will become virtually non-existent in Western Australia over the next two decades as it is scrubbed from the energy mix by a hastening uptake of electric vehicles.
Over that same period, the state’s agriculture sector will become the biggest polluter, surpassing major industry and electricity generators partly because of hard to abate emissions that enter the atmosphere via the rears of sheep and cows.
EV sales are expected to explode over the next six years.Credit: Bloomberg
These are key predictions from the Sectoral Emissions Reduction Strategy released by the Cook government with little fanfare last week after two years, following a promise to chart a course towards WA’s legislated 2050 net-zero target by informing non-binding, five-yearly goals.
It contains emissions modelling in a level of detail never seen before, focusing on the state’s biggest polluting sectors including industry (resources and manufacturing), electricity, transport and agriculture.
The strategy lacked detail and targets on the pathway from 2024 to 2050, but an analysis of the 40-page document by this masthead found some bold predictions of what the state could look like in 26 years’ time – and who would be the state’s biggest emitter.
The biggest and earliest change would be visible in the transport sector, which aimed to drop from 15.8 million tonnes of carbon emitted annually to 4.2 million tonnes in 2050.
This would largely be driven by an incredibly bullish prediction on EV uptake that would ramp up over the next few years.
The strategy suggested EV sales would jump from 6.6 per cent of all new car sales in WA in 2023 to 10 per cent by 2025, then a whopping 56 per cent by 2030.
By 2050, virtually no internal combustion engine vehicles would be sold in WA.
These statistics also reflected the strategy’s petroleum predictions.
Currently, petroleum constitutes about 7 per cent of the state’s energy mix, but would less than 1 per cent by 2050.
Electricity as an energy source, which includes powering vehicles, would jump from about 15 per cent in 2024 to 50 per cent in 2050.
Remaining on the energy mix, the strategy also predicted gas would plummet from more than 30 per cent to less than 5 per cent, while coal would be wiped out completely as promised by the WA government.
Hydrogen – which has yet to be proven as an energy source at scale – would make up about 7 per cent of the mix in 2050 while biofuel would make up about 5 per cent.
Heavy vehicles including some trucks, shipping and planes would continue to use fossil fuels.
The strategy’s second-boldest prediction was that by 2050 the agricultural sector would be the biggest polluter in the state.
The sector produces 10 million tonnes of carbon annually, equalling 12.5 per cent of the state’s total emissions.
Because emissions like methane from sheep and cows are hard to abate, the strategy predicted the sector would only be able to shave off about 20 per cent of those emissions by 2050.
The government has considered using more local grains as feed for intensive animal industries, which could reduce emissions from importing soybean meal from South America.
In contrast, the state’s biggest emitters – collectively known in the strategy as “industry” – are predicted to drop carbon emissions from 36 million tonnes annually to 4.7 million tonnes.
Businesses in the manufacturing, gas extraction, mining and chemicals space account for about 50 per cent of WA’s current emissions.
Despite the importance of this sector to WA’s path to net-zero, the strategy contained scant details on how emissions would be reduced so dramatically.
However, it noted many of the facilities under the industry umbrella were covered by the Australian Government’s safeguard mechanism.
Premier Roger Cook has previously said WA’s emissions would likely grow over the next few years before they declined as big polluters, particularly gas companies, ramped up operations that created fuel and technologies for other countries to decarbonise.
The strategy drew criticism from environmental groups and Greens MP Brad Pettitt for being “flimsy” and lacking actual details on how to get to net-zero.
Low Carbon Australia director Tristy Fairfield said the modelling and analysis was the strategy’s strength, and it gave insight into the size and scale of the problem facing WA, but there was little in there about the steps between 2024 and 2050.
“It talks a lot about 2050, but it doesn’t talk about any interim steps of how we’re going to get there, and I’d say, more importantly, it doesn’t help us reset a vision of what our low-carbon economy looks like,” she said.
Pettitt rubbished the strategy and accused Environment Minister Reece Whitby of not speaking publicly about it because he was embarrassed by it.
“There is nothing in here that says that [the government is] serious about climate action in any way,” he said.
But Whitby rejected Pettitt’s criticism, pointing to recent commitments, such as the plan to shut down all coal power stations and $708 million to be spent on upgrading the south-west electricity grid to handle renewable power.
“While the Greens continue making noise on the sidelines, the Cook Labor government is getting on with the job of accelerating decarbonisation,” he said.
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