After perusing the post-race coverage of last week’s legislative elections in Virginia, one would be forgiven for believing it was a blowout loss for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and Republicans. “What an epic failure,” a morning show pundit opined . “Devastating loss,” an article headline declared . One local news site called it “Youngkin’s Big Fat …Belly Flop.”
Of course, they were right insofar as Tuesday’s results represented an overall loss for the GOP. However, it was hardly a decisive rout. Although races remain to be called, if current results hold, it appears Democrats will hold a bare 51-49 seat majority in the House of Delegates. And in the state Senate, Democrats are projected to lose a seat, decreasing their majority to an equally slim 21-19. Given that Republicans hold the tiebreak in both chambers, only one flipped race in each would have handed the GOP a trifecta in the state.
WHO’S IN AND WHO’S OUT: HERE’S THE SENATE STATE OF PLAY FOR 2024
And let’s not forget the underlying context. This occurred in Virginia, a state President Joe Biden carried by 10 points in 2020 and which has trended solidly blue for years. Before Youngkin’s victory in 2021, no Republican candidate had won statewide in more than a decade. And despite Youngkin’s win, the state largely remains hostile territory for the GOP — both culturally and politically.
Indeed, according to one of the appointees who helped draw the Virginia districts, the map was deliberately drawn to hamper Republicans' ability to win a trifecta in the state.
Nevertheless, Republicans still came extremely close to pulling it off. In districts rated by CNAlysis as competitive, GOP candidates overperformed former President Donald Trump’s 2020 margins by an average of 9 points and House Republicans’ 2022 margins by about 2 points. On the whole, it was a remarkably respectable showing, if not the miracle the party was hoping for.
This also came despite Republicans being outspent decisively, as has become the norm in most swing races. Democratic House of Delegates candidates outraised their GOP counterparts by a $48 million to $36 million margin, according to the Virginia Public Access Project . In state Senate races, the gap was even more stark : $62 million to $41 million. And although comprehensive outside group spending numbers are not yet available, individual campaign spending is far more important, as candidates have access to better ad rates than outside groups and can therefore make their money go much further.
So, if the results in Virginia weren’t the disaster being portrayed by some in the media, what should Republicans’ realistic takeaways be? The biggest is also the one that runs most contrary to the punditry’s apocalypticism: Namely, Youngkin’s abortion message was far more effective than anything else yet tried by the GOP.
As they did in last year’s midterm elections, Democrats went all-in on abortion in Virginia, relentlessly (and falsely) charging that Republicans would enact a full abortion ban with no exceptions. But rather than ignore or sidestep the matter, as Republicans largely did last year , Youngkin countered by touting his support for a 15-week abortion limit with exceptions, a moderate policy that has polled reasonably well in Virginia.
Despite the GOP establishment’s rumored fury at the governor’s strategy, Youngkin’s gamble nearly paid off. At the very least, it performed far better than the “avoid-at-all-costs” abortion strategy employed by the majority of Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. A degree in rocket science (or even political science) isn’t required to understand why: When Republicans don’t respond to Democratic attacks, voters are bound to accept as truth the only message they’re hearing.
To respond to Democrats on abortion, Republicans must go on offense, both by attacking Democrats’ extremism and establishing their own position — preferably a popular one, such as a 15-week limit with exceptions.
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Although Youngkin and Virginia Republicans may be facing the ridicule of the chattering classes today, the truth is that if the national GOP were to perform as well next year as the Virginia GOP did on Tuesday, we would be looking at a very red map.
So, instead of continuing their freakout over abortion, Republicans should look to Youngkin for a possible blueprint to neutralize Democrats’ advantage on the matter successfully. By seeing past the close defeat of this election, the GOP might just be able to lay the groundwork for a resounding victory in the next one.
Terry Schilling is the president of American Principles Project. Follow him on X at @Schilling1776 .
Virginia offers the GOP a silver lining on abortion for 2024
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12.11.2023
After perusing the post-race coverage of last week’s legislative elections in Virginia, one would be forgiven for believing it was a blowout loss for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and Republicans. “What an epic failure,” a morning show pundit opined . “Devastating loss,” an article headline declared . One local news site called it “Youngkin’s Big Fat …Belly Flop.”
Of course, they were right insofar as Tuesday’s results represented an overall loss for the GOP. However, it was hardly a decisive rout. Although races remain to be called, if current results hold, it appears Democrats will hold a bare 51-49 seat majority in the House of Delegates. And in the state Senate, Democrats are projected to lose a seat, decreasing their majority to an equally slim 21-19. Given that Republicans hold the tiebreak in both chambers, only one flipped race in each would have handed the GOP a trifecta in the state.
WHO’S IN AND WHO’S OUT: HERE’S THE SENATE STATE OF PLAY FOR 2024
And let’s not forget the underlying context. This occurred in Virginia, a state President Joe Biden carried by 10 points in 2020 and which has trended solidly blue for years. Before........
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