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The results weren’t great for conservatives like my colleague Marc Thiessen, who has practically been begging his fellow Republicans not to nominate the former president. So I asked him: Can Trump unite the party between now and November?
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Alexi McCammond: Does Trump getting closer to securing the nomination help unite the GOP or splinter it further?
Marc Thiessen: Well, it’s not over yet. He still has to win New Hampshire. Nikki Haley is in striking distance there. And then there’s South Carolina. He’s likely the nominee, but the game is not over. While 51 percent is a record for a Republican in the Iowa caucuses, he’s effectively the incumbent. And yet nearly half the party wants someone else.
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Alexi: Sure, the game isn’t literally over, but you actually think there’s a path for Haley (or Ron DeSantis) to become the nominee over Trump? David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, said on MSNBC that he can see a small one for Haley but not for DeSantis. 🤔
Marc: I don’t see a path for DeSantis, but ironically, by squeaking out a second-place finish, he helps her by staying in the race. If he got out, a lot of his voters would probably go to Trump in New Hampshire. If she can pull off an upset in New Hampshire, she would head to her home state of South Carolina with a head of steam. If she won there, we’d have a real race. It’s a very narrow, unlikely path, but it’s a path.
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Alexi: That’s interesting and probably right re: DeSantis voters going to Trump in New Hampshire if he dropped out before. Maybe if Haley beats Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and then other Republicans — including DeSantis — endorse her and campaign for her, then maybe there’s a way.
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Marc: About 8 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump even if they are supporting other candidates. He’s going to unite the GOP if he’s the nominee. The problem he faces is that this election will be decided by a few thousand swing voters in a handful of swing states, and he is toxic to them.
Alexi: Those swing voters are so crucial. I feel like the ones who are sick of Trump and don’t want Biden will just stay home.
Marc: Joe Biden is the most unpopular president in the history of presidential polling. And yet Trump is statistically tied with him in the RealClearPolitics average. He should be crushing Biden. He’s not.
Alexi: I just do not agree that Trump should be crushing Biden for any reason that has to do with Biden or his polling. Trump is erratic and increasingly daydreaming of authoritarian rule. He makes up his own facts and says the most offensive things about immigrants, women, people of color. I could go on, but it’s late.
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Marc: In the latest Des Moines Register poll, Haley is the only GOP candidate who beats Biden outside the margin of error — by 8 points. That’s because she wins moderates and independents, more voters with college degrees and women. And she peels off Biden 2020 voters. Trump will have a big challenge to win those voters.
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Alexi: Totally with you on that. I’ve long thought Republicans should rally around Haley, but alas. All aboard the Trump train!
🙅🏽♀️ 🙅🏽♀️ 🙅🏽♀️
The next word
It’s Trump’s world, and we’re back living in it. His nomination seems more inevitable now after winning Iowa by a historic 30-point margin. Whether the GOP can unite under Trump is a scary question because, despite all his flirtations with being a dictator and the enormous liabilities he would present for his fellow Republicans down ballot, the answer is almost certainly yes.
Advertisement
If you’re wondering what will happen to the party over the next few months, consider the powerful essay Post contributor Robert Kagan wrote in November: “Votes are the currency of power in our system, and money follows, and by those measures, Trump is about to become far more powerful than he already is,” he argued. “The hour of casting about for alternatives is closing. The next phase is about people falling into line.”
Read also the latest column from my colleague Dana Milbank, who documented what he says are the last remnants of the Republican Party as they died in Iowa. He spent time at a Trump rally in Indianola, where Trump told voters that he is the victim of “hoaxes,” “witch hunts” and a “rigged Department of Justice where we have radical left, bad people, lunatics.” That’s a lot of negativity to rally the masses behind, yet much of the GOP is already there. CNN conducted entrance polls with Republican caucus-goers and found that a shocking 66 percent of those surveyed believe Biden was not legitimately elected president.
Democrats moved mountains to make even the loudest liberal activists support Biden in 2020 because they all decided being in disarray wasn’t fun anymore; they wanted to notch electoral, legislative and political wins for years to come. Expect the same thing to happen among Republicans.
Advertisement
You could already see signals of this in Iowa: Once outlets started calling the race for Trump about 30 minutes after voting started, DeSantis’s campaign team accused the media of “election interference.” As one DeSantis aide wrote on X, formerly Twitter, “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.” (I can assure you Trump’s team does not see it that way.) One way to keep the party united? Attacking the media instead of the guy you’re running against.
🖥️ 🖥️ 🖥️
r/Politics
I like to check in on the political discussions happening on Reddit to see how people across the country are thinking and feeling about the election. This week, user Helicase21 posed a question on r/AskALiberal: “Those of you who are skeptical of polls showing Trump leading Biden in swing states, what would it take to convince you that the trend is real?”
One user replied that it would be two to three months before the election when they would start to worry. “When it comes down to it, Trump is really good for getting Democrats to come out and vote. Most don’t want another Trump presidency, regardless of how disappointing Biden has been.”
🧠 🧠 🧠
Brain dump
- Donald Trump’s coronation is officially underway. Catch up with Karen Tumulty, who was there for it all.
- Vivek Ramaswamy finally ended his presidential campaign. A Twitter user jokes he was actually “a sociological study conducted by Harvard University” the whole time.
- “Maybe they just … like authoritarianism?” The Bulwark takes down the New York Times for trying to understand Trump voters. Get in on the cat fight.
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Former president Donald Trump dominated the first big contest of 2024, earning a historic 51 percent of the vote in Iowa’s GOP caucuses. He was oddly kind to his rivals in Monday night’s victory speech. “I want to congratulate Ron and Nikki,” he said. “I think they both actually did very well.”
The results weren’t great for conservatives like my colleague Marc Thiessen, who has practically been begging his fellow Republicans not to nominate the former president. So I asked him: Can Trump unite the party between now and November?
Alexi McCammond: Does Trump getting closer to securing the nomination help unite the GOP or splinter it further?
Marc Thiessen: Well, it’s not over yet. He still has to win New Hampshire. Nikki Haley is in striking distance there. And then there’s South Carolina. He’s likely the nominee, but the game is not over. While 51 percent is a record for a Republican in the Iowa caucuses, he’s effectively the incumbent. And yet nearly half the party wants someone else.
Alexi: Sure, the game isn’t literally over, but you actually think there’s a path for Haley (or Ron DeSantis) to become the nominee over Trump? David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, said on MSNBC that he can see a small one for Haley but not for DeSantis. 🤔
Marc: I don’t see a path for DeSantis, but ironically, by squeaking out a second-place finish, he helps her by staying in the race. If he got out, a lot of his voters would probably go to Trump in New Hampshire. If she can pull off an upset in New Hampshire, she would head to her home state of South Carolina with a head of steam. If she won there, we’d have a real race. It’s a very narrow, unlikely path, but it’s a path.
Sign up for the Prompt 2024 newsletter
Alexi: That’s interesting and probably right re: DeSantis voters going to Trump in New Hampshire if he dropped out before. Maybe if Haley beats Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and then other Republicans — including DeSantis — endorse her and campaign for her, then maybe there’s a way.
Marc: About 8 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump even if they are supporting other candidates. He’s going to unite the GOP if he’s the nominee. The problem he faces is that this election will be decided by a few thousand swing voters in a handful of swing states, and he is toxic to them.
Alexi: Those swing voters are so crucial. I feel like the ones who are sick of Trump and don’t want Biden will just stay home.
Marc: Joe Biden is the most unpopular president in the history of presidential polling. And yet Trump is statistically tied with him in the RealClearPolitics average. He should be crushing Biden. He’s not.
Alexi: I just do not agree that Trump should be crushing Biden for any reason that has to do with Biden or his polling. Trump is erratic and increasingly daydreaming of authoritarian rule. He makes up his own facts and says the most offensive things about immigrants, women, people of color. I could go on, but it’s late.
Marc: In the latest Des Moines Register poll, Haley is the only GOP candidate who beats Biden outside the margin of error — by 8 points. That’s because she wins moderates and independents, more voters with college degrees and women. And she peels off Biden 2020 voters. Trump will have a big challenge to win those voters.
Alexi: Totally with you on that. I’ve long thought Republicans should rally around Haley, but alas. All aboard the Trump train!
It’s Trump’s world, and we’re back living in it. His nomination seems more inevitable now after winning Iowa by a historic 30-point margin. Whether the GOP can unite under Trump is a scary question because, despite all his flirtations with being a dictator and the enormous liabilities he would present for his fellow Republicans down ballot, the answer is almost certainly yes.
If you’re wondering what will happen to the party over the next few months, consider the powerful essay Post contributor Robert Kagan wrote in November: “Votes are the currency of power in our system, and money follows, and by those measures, Trump is about to become far more powerful than he already is,” he argued. “The hour of casting about for alternatives is closing. The next phase is about people falling into line.”
Read also the latest column from my colleague Dana Milbank, who documented what he says are the last remnants of the Republican Party as they died in Iowa. He spent time at a Trump rally in Indianola, where Trump told voters that he is the victim of “hoaxes,” “witch hunts” and a “rigged Department of Justice where we have radical left, bad people, lunatics.” That’s a lot of negativity to rally the masses behind, yet much of the GOP is already there. CNN conducted entrance polls with Republican caucus-goers and found that a shocking 66 percent of those surveyed believe Biden was not legitimately elected president.
Democrats moved mountains to make even the loudest liberal activists support Biden in 2020 because they all decided being in disarray wasn’t fun anymore; they wanted to notch electoral, legislative and political wins for years to come. Expect the same thing to happen among Republicans.
You could already see signals of this in Iowa: Once outlets started calling the race for Trump about 30 minutes after voting started, DeSantis’s campaign team accused the media of “election interference.” As one DeSantis aide wrote on X, formerly Twitter, “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.” (I can assure you Trump’s team does not see it that way.) One way to keep the party united? Attacking the media instead of the guy you’re running against.
I like to check in on the political discussions happening on Reddit to see how people across the country are thinking and feeling about the election. This week, user Helicase21 posed a question on r/AskALiberal: “Those of you who are skeptical of polls showing Trump leading Biden in swing states, what would it take to convince you that the trend is real?”
One user replied that it would be two to three months before the election when they would start to worry. “When it comes down to it, Trump is really good for getting Democrats to come out and vote. Most don’t want another Trump presidency, regardless of how disappointing Biden has been.”
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