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The U.S. economy grew an astonishing 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023, and the International Monetary Fund expects growth for last year to be 2.1 percent, which is substantially better than other advanced Western economies such as Canada, Germany and Britain. Inflation is dropping sharply, real wages are up and manufacturing employment is experiencing a boom. It is hard to find another country where so many measures are pointing in the right direction.
The broader picture is even more positive. As I write in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, the United States has been besting its competitors in various crucial metrics for a while. The Financial Times did an analysis of the many ways in which the United States’ economy could be compared with Europe’s, and it found that in per capita growth, the United States has been “outperforming” Britain and the euro zone for 20 years and has “dwarfed” the economies of Spain, France and Italy.
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The U.S. technology sector dominates the world in a way that no country ever has. The value of the top 10 U.S. technology stocks is now greater than the value of the entire stock markets of Canada, Britain, France and Germany combined. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. It has the healthiest demographics of any advanced country, and it takes in around 1 million legal immigrants a year, which ensures that while Europe and Japan are expected to slowly sink in population, the United States will continue to grow.
The world sees what Americans do not. The latest Pew Research Center survey on the topic shows that the United States is now viewed more favorably than China in 22 of 24 countries. When asked who contributes to peace and stability around the world, the United States or China, the margins are huge in crucial Asian countries. In Japan, it is 79 percent to 14 percent; in South Korea, 74 percent to 13 percent; and in India, 70 percent to 33 percent — all in Washington’s favor.
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I know that many will raise the numerous global crises — the bloody stalemate in Ukraine, the tragic war in Gaza, the dangers over Taiwan. Others will concede the positive points but argue that U.S. domestic politics overwhelms them all. Our deeply polarized society will be paralyzed by the looming court cases, a crazy election that will follow and a possible constitutional crisis over the results.
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All of this is true. America has serious problems. What nation doesn’t? But it has gotten through these kinds of crises before, and I am confident it will again.
Last summer, Nikki Haley tweeted, “Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt?” She was aping Donald Trump’s central message, which is that he will make America great again.
So, let’s go back in time to those heady days, 50 years ago — to 1974. The United States had just suffered its first major military defeat in Vietnam. The Soviet Union was widely thought to be on the offensive around the world. The German chancellor resigned after an espionage scandal. Spain was still in shock from the recent assassination of its prime minister by Basque terrorists. Israel was barely recovering from a near-death experience in the Yom Kippur War, forcing its prime minister Golda Meir to resign. The Arab oil embargo roughly tripled the price of oil, leading to a novel combination of slow growth and high inflation that was described as “stagflation.” Domestically, U.S. cities were still reeling from the riots of the late 1960s and forced busing was tearing communities apart. Oh, and Watergate had upended the political system. To escape impeachment, the president of the United States resigned in August 1974 — a first in history. Ah yes, the good old days, when life was simpler.
The truth is, the United States has the power and capacity to tackle today’s crises — perhaps even more so than it had in the past. But it needs to regain a sense of perspective and, above all, regain confidence in its own enormous strengths.
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The start of the new year is often a time of optimism. But look at surveys from the past few months and you will find that strikingly high numbers of Americans — sometimes around three-quarters of those polled — think America is on the wrong track. This profound sense of despair is perplexing because I don’t find much objective data to support it.
The U.S. economy grew an astonishing 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023, and the International Monetary Fund expects growth for last year to be 2.1 percent, which is substantially better than other advanced Western economies such as Canada, Germany and Britain. Inflation is dropping sharply, real wages are up and manufacturing employment is experiencing a boom. It is hard to find another country where so many measures are pointing in the right direction.
The broader picture is even more positive. As I write in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, the United States has been besting its competitors in various crucial metrics for a while. The Financial Times did an analysis of the many ways in which the United States’ economy could be compared with Europe’s, and it found that in per capita growth, the United States has been “outperforming” Britain and the euro zone for 20 years and has “dwarfed” the economies of Spain, France and Italy.
The U.S. technology sector dominates the world in a way that no country ever has. The value of the top 10 U.S. technology stocks is now greater than the value of the entire stock markets of Canada, Britain, France and Germany combined. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. It has the healthiest demographics of any advanced country, and it takes in around 1 million legal immigrants a year, which ensures that while Europe and Japan are expected to slowly sink in population, the United States will continue to grow.
The world sees what Americans do not. The latest Pew Research Center survey on the topic shows that the United States is now viewed more favorably than China in 22 of 24 countries. When asked who contributes to peace and stability around the world, the United States or China, the margins are huge in crucial Asian countries. In Japan, it is 79 percent to 14 percent; in South Korea, 74 percent to 13 percent; and in India, 70 percent to 33 percent — all in Washington’s favor.
I know that many will raise the numerous global crises — the bloody stalemate in Ukraine, the tragic war in Gaza, the dangers over Taiwan. Others will concede the positive points but argue that U.S. domestic politics overwhelms them all. Our deeply polarized society will be paralyzed by the looming court cases, a crazy election that will follow and a possible constitutional crisis over the results.
All of this is true. America has serious problems. What nation doesn’t? But it has gotten through these kinds of crises before, and I am confident it will again.
Last summer, Nikki Haley tweeted, “Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt?” She was aping Donald Trump’s central message, which is that he will make America great again.
So, let’s go back in time to those heady days, 50 years ago — to 1974. The United States had just suffered its first major military defeat in Vietnam. The Soviet Union was widely thought to be on the offensive around the world. The German chancellor resigned after an espionage scandal. Spain was still in shock from the recent assassination of its prime minister by Basque terrorists. Israel was barely recovering from a near-death experience in the Yom Kippur War, forcing its prime minister Golda Meir to resign. The Arab oil embargo roughly tripled the price of oil, leading to a novel combination of slow growth and high inflation that was described as “stagflation.” Domestically, U.S. cities were still reeling from the riots of the late 1960s and forced busing was tearing communities apart. Oh, and Watergate had upended the political system. To escape impeachment, the president of the United States resigned in August 1974 — a first in history. Ah yes, the good old days, when life was simpler.
The truth is, the United States has the power and capacity to tackle today’s crises — perhaps even more so than it had in the past. But it needs to regain a sense of perspective and, above all, regain confidence in its own enormous strengths.
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