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Flash forward to recent months. Xi publicly declared to an audience of American business executives that China has no intention or desire to replace the United States as the global hegemon. He and Wang Yi have argued that cooperation between the United States and China is imperative. Xi courted U.S. business in San Francisco and the premier, Li Qiang, did the same at Davos, Switzerland. Much of this shift in rhetoric probably stems from Beijing’s recognition that its own economy has been foundering while the United States’ is booming. But, more generally, it must see that its “wolf warrior” diplomacy has failed, alienating people from India to Australia to Germany. A recent Pew Research Center study showed that 22 of the 24 countries surveyed viewed the United States more favorably than they did China.

Washington for its part came to realize that U.S.-China relations were veering badly off course and could lead to dangerous spirals, crises and conflict. If Taiwan, in particular, were badly handled, everyone would suffer — including the Taiwanese who by large majorities want the status quo to continue. There is also an upside to better relations between the two powers, which remain deeply intertwined economically. Many U.S. allies have made clear to Washington that while they seek America’s security help, China will remain their largest economic partner.

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None of this is to suggest that things are now warm and friendly. New crises will emerge. As China’s affordable EVs flood the markets, expect a big debate in some Western countries over how to respond. For Germany, China was the great savior for its auto industry, absorbing a large share of German exports. But today, Chinese cars are the greatest threat to that same industry. There will be new tensions over pharmaceuticals and bio-tech products. But they will now happen in the context of a working relationship between Washington and Beijing, which is reassuring.

Part of what has allowed the shift in Washington’s attitudes is the realization that China is not 10 feet tall. Just as with Japan in the 1980s, policymakers in Washington projected China’s growth forward and panicked. But as the German saying goes, “trees don’t grow to the sky.” China’s growth has slumped substantially, made worse by many bad policies in recent years. Its demographics and productivity — the main two components of economic growth — are both weak. China remains a powerful force, but it is not going to take over the world.

A crucial attribute of America’s age of hegemony, which began 80 years ago, was that Washington created a security system in which other countries could grow and prosper. As long as they did not try to disrupt the international order, they could thrive economically, politically, socially and culturally. This attitude was rooted in a confidence that the United States could compete and do well with rivals; but it insisted that the rivalry not turn into a geopolitical one, where there is no win-win solution and the global system would break down. If China plays by these rules, Washington should give it some space. As America’s economy powers ahead, the country would do well to maintain confidence in itself and design a foreign policy based on that accurate premise rather than one forged in doom and despair.

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For all the focus on the many geopolitical crises around the world, the one that is potentially most dangerous has actually been trending in a positive direction. Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, told me: “The biggest upside surprise of recent months has got to be the stabilization of U.S.-China relations.”

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s meeting with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, for private talks this week is one more sign of a thaw in relations that in 2021 had both sides yelling at each other in Anchorage. Military-to-military talks have resumed. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo have both had constructive trips to China. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command noted earlier this month that since the Biden-Xi summit in November, Chinese military planes seem to have stopped their dangerous maneuvers. Over the prior two years, since the fall of 2021, there had been nearly 300 such incidents against U.S. aircraft and those of U.S. allies and partners. And the Taiwanese elections, while going against China’s hopes, were handled maturely by both sides.

This is all to the good. The mistrust, miscommunication and lack of contact that characterized the relationship for the first two years of the Biden administration was dangerous. This rivalry could easily spiral into an unconstrained arms race in everything from artificial intelligence to space weapons, splinter the global economy, and descend into the first great power war since 1945.

Both sides have adjusted their attitudes. But the larger shift has come from Beijing. President Xi Jinping came to power in the wake of the global financial crisis, convinced that the United States’ power was waning. He explicitly said, “The East is rising and the West is declining.” He wanted China to lessen its economic dependence on the United States and make the technologies of the future at home. He initiated a more ambitious and aggressive foreign policy.

Flash forward to recent months. Xi publicly declared to an audience of American business executives that China has no intention or desire to replace the United States as the global hegemon. He and Wang Yi have argued that cooperation between the United States and China is imperative. Xi courted U.S. business in San Francisco and the premier, Li Qiang, did the same at Davos, Switzerland. Much of this shift in rhetoric probably stems from Beijing’s recognition that its own economy has been foundering while the United States’ is booming. But, more generally, it must see that its “wolf warrior” diplomacy has failed, alienating people from India to Australia to Germany. A recent Pew Research Center study showed that 22 of the 24 countries surveyed viewed the United States more favorably than they did China.

Washington for its part came to realize that U.S.-China relations were veering badly off course and could lead to dangerous spirals, crises and conflict. If Taiwan, in particular, were badly handled, everyone would suffer — including the Taiwanese who by large majorities want the status quo to continue. There is also an upside to better relations between the two powers, which remain deeply intertwined economically. Many U.S. allies have made clear to Washington that while they seek America’s security help, China will remain their largest economic partner.

None of this is to suggest that things are now warm and friendly. New crises will emerge. As China’s affordable EVs flood the markets, expect a big debate in some Western countries over how to respond. For Germany, China was the great savior for its auto industry, absorbing a large share of German exports. But today, Chinese cars are the greatest threat to that same industry. There will be new tensions over pharmaceuticals and bio-tech products. But they will now happen in the context of a working relationship between Washington and Beijing, which is reassuring.

Part of what has allowed the shift in Washington’s attitudes is the realization that China is not 10 feet tall. Just as with Japan in the 1980s, policymakers in Washington projected China’s growth forward and panicked. But as the German saying goes, “trees don’t grow to the sky.” China’s growth has slumped substantially, made worse by many bad policies in recent years. Its demographics and productivity — the main two components of economic growth — are both weak. China remains a powerful force, but it is not going to take over the world.

A crucial attribute of America’s age of hegemony, which began 80 years ago, was that Washington created a security system in which other countries could grow and prosper. As long as they did not try to disrupt the international order, they could thrive economically, politically, socially and culturally. This attitude was rooted in a confidence that the United States could compete and do well with rivals; but it insisted that the rivalry not turn into a geopolitical one, where there is no win-win solution and the global system would break down. If China plays by these rules, Washington should give it some space. As America’s economy powers ahead, the country would do well to maintain confidence in itself and design a foreign policy based on that accurate premise rather than one forged in doom and despair.

QOSHE - The U.S.-China relationship is back on track. Let’s hope it stays that way. - Fareed Zakaria
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The U.S.-China relationship is back on track. Let’s hope it stays that way.

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27.01.2024

Follow this authorFareed Zakaria's opinions

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Flash forward to recent months. Xi publicly declared to an audience of American business executives that China has no intention or desire to replace the United States as the global hegemon. He and Wang Yi have argued that cooperation between the United States and China is imperative. Xi courted U.S. business in San Francisco and the premier, Li Qiang, did the same at Davos, Switzerland. Much of this shift in rhetoric probably stems from Beijing’s recognition that its own economy has been foundering while the United States’ is booming. But, more generally, it must see that its “wolf warrior” diplomacy has failed, alienating people from India to Australia to Germany. A recent Pew Research Center study showed that 22 of the 24 countries surveyed viewed the United States more favorably than they did China.

Washington for its part came to realize that U.S.-China relations were veering badly off course and could lead to dangerous spirals, crises and conflict. If Taiwan, in particular, were badly handled, everyone would suffer — including the Taiwanese who by large majorities want the status quo to continue. There is also an upside to better relations between the two powers, which remain deeply intertwined economically. Many U.S. allies have made clear to Washington that while they seek America’s security help, China will remain their largest economic partner.

Advertisement

None of this is to suggest that things are now warm and friendly. New crises will emerge. As China’s affordable EVs flood the markets, expect a big debate in some Western countries over how to respond. For Germany, China was the great savior for its auto industry, absorbing a large share of German exports. But today, Chinese cars are the greatest threat to that same industry. There will be new tensions over pharmaceuticals and bio-tech products. But they will now happen in the context of a working relationship between Washington and Beijing, which is reassuring.

Part of what has allowed the shift in Washington’s attitudes is the realization that China is not 10 feet tall. Just as with Japan in the 1980s, policymakers in Washington projected China’s growth forward and panicked. But as the German saying goes, “trees don’t grow to the sky.” China’s........

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